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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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wimblettben Rising Star

wimblettben

Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

At what point was widespread mentioned? Even the MetO's description was "isolated"

If you had looked at the BBC forecast on Monday evening, you would have seen masses of rain with lightning showing across the southwest and moving northeastwards.

And I would say that it doesn't even look isolated for our bit now, nothings showing up on the precipitation models, only for the midlands eastwards.

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Bangers & Flash Apprentice

Bangers & Flash

Posted
  • Location: Marple, Greater Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Marple, Greater Manchester
Posted

Evening all

A few towers going up directly overhead with dark bases, but not expecting anything here this evening 

 

IMG_5226.JPG

IMG_5227.JPG

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poseidon Aficionado

poseidon

Posted
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey days
  • Location: Dunmow, Essex (72m asl)
Posted

Yay, slight upgrade from the met office for this area, showing showers all day, They were progressively taking them away until now.

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Gael_Force Accomplished

Gael_Force

Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
Posted
10 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Is there anyway of slowing down the graphic or have it hour-by-hour, it flies too fast to get a better idea on the timeline for tomorrow.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arome.php?ech=3&mode=101&map=30

Hour by hour above or slower gif below.

tempresult_qbl1.gif

 

 

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
3 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

If you had looked at the BBC forecast on Monday evening, you would have seen masses of rain with lightning showing across the southwest and moving northeastwards.

And I would say that it doesn't even look isolated for our bit now, nothings showing up on the precipitation models, only for the midlands eastwards.

I wouldn't know, I don't watch the BBC forecasts, I only use the websites. I still stand by what I said though, widespread hasn't been mentioned.

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staplehurst Community Regular

staplehurst

Posted
  • Location: Norwich
  • Location: Norwich
Posted
7 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

If you had looked at the BBC forecast on Monday evening, you would have seen masses of rain with lightning showing across the southwest and moving northeastwards.

And I would say that it doesn't even look isolated for our bit now, nothings showing up on the precipitation models, only for the midlands eastwards.

That is because of the resolution of the models used beyond T+60, it goes from 4km to 25km(?). Hence an individual shower becomes a large blob that covers a large area...

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wimblettben Rising Star

wimblettben

Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Screenshot_2017-07-05-19-28-13.thumb.png.57bf1db4c7c5b3584fad3eb2f9919eeb.png 

Screenshot_2017-07-05-19-28-29.thumb.png.a56103fd2bfa524309e811823782f93e.png

Screenshot_2017-07-05-19-28-43.thumb.png.9d8eec035d7a8412be37498e7ca7af20.png

 

This perked me up a bit but I fear its overly optimistic for storms compared to the other forecasts.

Covering much more of the southwest here and more noticeable with higher amounts of lightning.

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted

meanwhile at Bedford HQ above my house.

notmuchtoo see.jpg

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Dangerous55019 Seasoned

Dangerous55019

Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
Posted

Convective Cloudwatch Update...

Whilst I'm certainly not expecting anything this evening, I find that skies like this the night before have always given me a 50/50 chance of something the following day. :bomb::pardon:

IMG_2854.JPG

IMG_2857.JPG

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tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted
1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Not overly impressed with the NetWx SR either. There has been a lot of chopping & changing, so we'll have to wait and see!

viewimage.thumb.png.3f9980a9c22bbd5030499fb41e84a7c1.png 595d227808f7a_viewimage(1).thumb.png.99df2205d6611ad4b3c3884ae59cba44.png 595d2265151e4_viewimage(2).thumb.png.e598fcf377879f70f298d9d70ea33d9e.png 595d226cabd25_viewimage(3).thumb.png.82564f22422305fe3b2b9bbd01b3406e.png

Lets hope this verifies 

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

All I see is blue skies and bits of cirrus.

Exactly :nonono:

 

 

Edited by Dami
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted
1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Not overly impressed with the NetWx SR either. There has been a lot of chopping & changing, so we'll have to wait and see!

viewimage.thumb.png.3f9980a9c22bbd5030499fb41e84a7c1.png 595d227808f7a_viewimage(1).thumb.png.99df2205d6611ad4b3c3884ae59cba44.png 595d2265151e4_viewimage(2).thumb.png.e598fcf377879f70f298d9d70ea33d9e.png 595d226cabd25_viewimage(3).thumb.png.82564f22422305fe3b2b9bbd01b3406e.png

Don't worry about it generally it's wrong anyway stopped using it as guide some time back.

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Dangerous55019 Seasoned

Dangerous55019

Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
Posted

Ok... I've just had a look at what the good ole UK Met Office has to say about tomorrow... So I entered 'Mold' first of all, as it only five minutes walk from my house, and i over look it in the bottom of the valley...

 595d34eb3b96b_Screenshot(98).thumb.png.37b834165b1d81e93d7bb85096cc213d.png

... And oh dear :nonono::cray::wallbash:

... So then I entered the city of 'Chester' as a location... Which is only about 10/15 minutes drive from here, and this is what I saw...

595d35b9e1c70_Screenshot(97).thumb.png.f6618dca39ad7138833022f382142a66.png

... Well, lets just say that I filled the car up with go go juice today :D

Personally I dunno, but I'm not giving up on this just yet... For my area I'd say its 50/50... And that's better than nothing, so lets see what tomorrows charts bring :D

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Looks more like damis vaping :rofl:

Yep it looks like the male chimney pot that was by the school the other day before the gate opened. Like a bonfire it was.

Moving on. It is indeed clear and blue here and not an ant in sight. I mean cloud.

 

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sparky1972 Community Regular

sparky1972

Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
Posted

well, certainly not expecting anything storm wise here, metoffice forecast has a light shower between 6pm and 9pm tomorrow evening, but, if we are to get one then after 7pm would be fab, i would have finished circuit training and will be at home

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

LOl local forecast going nuts and we have storms from 15:00 to 17:00. I'll stick with isolated and damn lucky if you have one. 

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LightningLover Accomplished

LightningLover

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
Posted (edited)

My wifi has gone- so my posts may be very limited until further notice, but there is some lovely Altocumulus castellanus!

Edited by LightningLover
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted
18 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Lets hope this verifies 

lets not....lol

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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted
10 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

Ok... I've just had a look at what the good ole UK Met Office has to say about tomorrow... So I entered 'Mold' first of all, as it only five minutes walk from my house, and i over look it in the bottom of the valley...

 595d34eb3b96b_Screenshot(98).thumb.png.37b834165b1d81e93d7bb85096cc213d.png

... And oh dear :nonono::cray::wallbash:

... So then I entered the city of 'Chester' as a location... Which is only about 10/15 minutes drive from here, and this is what I saw...

595d35b9e1c70_Screenshot(97).thumb.png.f6618dca39ad7138833022f382142a66.png

... Well, lets just say that I filled the car up with go go juice today :D

Personally I dunno, but I'm not giving up on this just yet... For my area I'd say its 50/50... And that's better than nothing, so lets see what tomorrows charts bring :D

I see your charts and raise you mine :

 

picoforumpic.png

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Dangerous55019 Seasoned

Dangerous55019

Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
Posted
1 minute ago, Dami said:

I see your charts and raise you mine :

 

picoforumpic.png

That's really not looking promising @Dami :sorry:
But before you give up hope altogether, here is the latest charts that I can see on here from the 12z GFS run. :bomb::pardon:

Screenshot (99).png

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