Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

Looks like a possible MCS forming Thursday 03z, significant rainfall rates appearing on Netwx MR, which I don't think I've seen such intensity before. Seems to form in North Bay of Biscay and move across SE England, although earlier runs suggesting the area of storms to move across Devon and Cornwall.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Ben Sainsbury

[Mokidugway]

Inevitable eastward shift till a best is a Kentish clipperoonie....

[Ben Sainsbury]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

Inevitable eastward shift till a best is a Kentish clipperoonie....

That is my worry of course.

[TJS1998Tom]

13 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

That is my worry of course.

I just hope Skellingthorpe, Lincoln gets something this time lol

[LightningLover]

1 hour ago, SenlacJack said:

I'm genuinely puzzled by that remark. According to the records I keep we had at least 15 thunderstorms in this area last year, some of which were quite spectacular, including some overnighters that lasted 2 or 3 hours.

Unfortunately for me I was often away from home (badly timed I have to admit), thus I only saw about 3 thundery showers (winter), and one notable event (summer). But I have to say the way I worded that sentence was a bit vague and pessimistic--- I do apologise.

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 04 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 05 Jul 2017

ISSUED 20:13 UTC Mon 03 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Each of the three highlighted areas generally contain a very low risk of lightning (i.e. less than 15% chance in any one location).

... SCOTLAND ...

To the north of the frontal boundary, low-level convergence and surface heating may allow one or  two heavy showers to develop during Tuesday afternoon / early evening. But given rather unimpressive mid-level lapse rates, suggest any showers will be largely stunted in vertical development and consequently very little (if any) lightning will occur.

... E MIDLANDS / E ANGLIA ...

Similarly, potential for a few showers to develop in the afternoon and early evening, though limited in vertical extent and hence very little lightning expected.

... SW ENGLAND, S WALES AND ENVIRONS ...

Scope for some medium-level destabilisation to occur on Tuesday evening and night, perhaps with a few showers - these could extend as far east as East Anglia / SE England by Wednesday morning. That said, depth of instability is limited, but with better mid-level lapse rates there could be some lightning - but point probability considered quite low.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-04

[sparky1972]

16 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I just hope Skellingthorpe, Lincoln gets something this time lol

and us here nr spalding, lol

[Mapantz]

The extended skew-t doesn't look too bad for here on Thursday morning. Moderate convective potential along with a decent TT index - any storms could possibly be severe in nature, although isolated. Not worth worrying over at this stage though.

[SenlacJack]

13 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Unfortunately for me I was often away from home (badly timed I have to admit), thus I only saw about 3 thundery showers (winter), and one notable event (summer). But I have to say the way I worded that sentence was a bit vague and pessimistic--- I do apologise.

No need at all to apologise, I was just surprised by the the comment given what I witnessed and made notes of for the thunderstorms we had here last year.

[LightningLover]

10 minutes ago, SenlacJack said:

No need at all to apologise, I was just surprised by the the comment given what I witnessed and made notes of for the thunderstorms we had here last year.

I did hear my location got hit by a spectacular MCS sometime in late July. Apparently the lightning was exceptionally frequent, as well as producing small hail and torrential rain. Unfortunately I was on holiday.

[Rob Walker]

3 hours ago, Andy Bown said:

With pressure lowering during Wednesday night and Thursday there shouldn't be a cap in place as under the high a few weeks ago. What we do need though is a lot of hot sunshine Thursday morning to get the temperatures as high as possible then it'll be game on from lunchtime onwards. AltCas watch from late Wednesday too.

Yes I agree with this. Different factors to watch out for with this coming set-up. I suspect it'll be a lot easier for storms to fire; just need plenty of sunshine both on the wednesday and the thursday till early evening. Timing of the low/respective fronts looks good in very late eve for the south on the current forecast runs so that would be another positive for at least seeing something thundery in the south. 

[Dangerous55019]

Morning all 
Well, as I kinda though would happen, the carts I posted up yesterday for Friday, Saturday and Sunday have fallen off the radar.
But the good news is that Thursday is now starting to look like it could be game on!... With a little bit of potential on Wednesday as well!! 

As usual I have cherry picked the most juicy looking charts from the 00z run of the GFS.

So lets start with tomorrow, Wednesday...



Its looking like a line from North Wales, and across Merseyside, Manchester, and across the Pennies into South Yorkshire, the Peak District, Nottinghamshire and through into Linconshire which could be of interest.  ... Even if it doesn't go bang, it should hopefully give us some nice convective cloudscapes 

And then comes Thursday... 

Now this starts to look really quite juicy from an early stage and then gets better and better for a massive swathe of England and Wales! 
Plus for those of you in the South East, I'd say that there is a possibility of a Kent Clipper in the early hours of Friday. 

As usual, still too far out to call, so the Skew-T charts will as always be the best way to check, but as @Andy Bown has already said "The pressure is lowering, so hopefully there shouldn't be a cap in place". 

Fingers crossed that this week could hopefully produce something really quite memorable for us all 

[Harry]

Looking good for Thursday PM and overnight. Lots of SBCAPE and MUCAPE, falling heights, increasing lapse rates....should be good.

As ever, usual caveats with these setups apply and nobody should start planning anything or building their hopes too highly.

[NUT]

Looks like a close but no cigar event here in the central lowlands but I know it can chop and change

[Summer Sun]

Early warnings out for Thursday and into Friday

Between 06:00 Thu 6th and 06:00 Fri 7th

Isolated thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of England and Wales from Thursday morning, before clearing east early on Friday. While these storms may miss many places, where they do develop intense downpours are likely, bringing a low risk of sudden flooding of roads, transport routes, homes and businesses. Lightning and hail may be additional hazards.

Covers

East Midlands, East of England, London & South East England, North East England, North West England, South West England, Wales, West Midlands, Yorkshire & Humber

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-07-06

[Another Kent clipper]

My weather app shows a dangly zig zag for both tomorrow and Wednesday now. Come on!

 

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

The event on Thursday morning is really looking like what had happened on 28th August 2016, where storms formed in the channel, pushing up through CS England and increasing NE/E towards East Anglia. Here an MCS formed reaching lightning rates of over 100/min. Funny enough the rainfall rates predicted by WRF-NMM coincide with this capture from 28th August 2016.

Interesting to watch...

[karyo]

6 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

My weather app shows a dangly zig zag for both tomorrow and Wednesday now. Come on!

 

 

I suggest we keep expectations low. Remember what (didn't) happen two weeks ago despite the favourable forecasts... 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Not wanting to jump the (loaded) gun, but are we potentially seeing something similar to the July event back in 2014?

As I remember that was a Thursday night too, plus additional and notable activity on the Friday and Saturday afterwards.

If so then this time I'll remember to chase on the Friday - because the last time I stayed put til too late to see that awesome wall cloud move in across the Channel towards Kent & Sussex...

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

The event on Thursday morning is really looking like what had happened on 28th August 2016, where storms formed in the channel, pushing up through CS England and increasing NE/E towards East Anglia. Here an MCS formed reaching lightning rates of over 100/min. Funny enough the rainfall rates predicted by WRF-NMM coincide with this capture from 28th August 2016.

Interesting to watch...

I think it will be further east and more widespread (perhaps less concentrated too)

[Derecho]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Not wanting to jump the (loaded) gun, but are we potentially seeing something similar to the July event back in 2014?

As I remember that was a Thursday night too, plus additional and notable activity on the Friday and Saturday afterwards.

If so then this time I'll remember to chase on the Friday - because the last time I stayed put til too late to see that awesome wall cloud move in across the Channel towards Kent & Sussex...

It does resemble that somewhat though perhaps not to such an extent given temperatures are a bit lower. Should be a good set of storms scattered around though. .

Ps I really hope we don't see a repeat of August 2016 as I'm still waiting for a really good storm here in Southampton after being here for 3 years! I slept through a good one during June last year though.

[Ben Sainsbury]

20 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

The event on Thursday morning is really looking like what had happened on 28th August 2016, where storms formed in the channel, pushing up through CS England and increasing NE/E towards East Anglia. Here an MCS formed reaching lightning rates of over 100/min. Funny enough the rainfall rates predicted by WRF-NMM coincide with this capture from 28th August 2016.

Interesting to watch...

To add also this is what the WRF-NMM are suggesting may happen... Somewhat similar I guess?

[Ben Sainsbury]

18 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I think it will be further east and more widespread (perhaps less concentrated too)

Very true, might turn out to be completely different to this, just an indication of what could happen. 

[Harry]

30 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Not wanting to jump the (loaded) gun, but are we potentially seeing something similar to the July event back in 2014?

As I remember that was a Thursday night too, plus additional and notable activity on the Friday and Saturday afterwards.

If so then this time I'll remember to chase on the Friday - because the last time I stayed put til too late to see that awesome wall cloud move in across the Channel towards Kent & Sussex...

I remember this well, was a cracking night with fairly widespread thunderstorms. That may well have been early July too.

[TJS1998Tom]

17 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

To add also this is what the WRF-NMM are suggesting may happen... Somewhat similar I guess?

If that's the case I hope it moves slightly northwards so Lincoln will get something as we just missed out last year