Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Jonan92]

Quite amusing to see such changes in 24h

Yesterday 12zrun

Today

[booferking]

ECM is a boom.

[SMU]

The NH plot for ECM 144 shows another amplification attempt - 2 waves alligned to the pole

s

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The NH plot for ECM 144 shows another amplification attempt - 2 waves alligned to the pole

s

Its a cold EC steve- lets hope its on the ball

Still cold fri into sunday, hope is the trough digs far enough into Europe to prevent the high toppling into France 

Edited November 19, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Mucka]

528 line clearing the South, uppers -6, that would likely get snow showers to low levels in the North if it came off.

Oops, need my reading glasses lol

Edited November 19, 2017 by Mucka

[knocker]

At first glance one thing that can be said is that the ecm analysis at Sat. 00 is virtually identical to this morning's run

[Jonan92]

 

Seeing this chart I would expect that low coming from Iceland to slide down to Europe while warm air is pushed into the pole behind it

[Derecho]

Who needs model output this November when the pattern is so clear....

Mild weekdays and cold weekends, rinse and repeat 

The cold weather looks set to return just in time for the weekend 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Who needs model output this November when the pattern is so clear....

Mild weekdays and cold weekends, rinse and repeat 

The cold weather looks set to return just in time for the weekend 

Noticed over the years topplers have a tendancy to arrive at weekends, and plumes Tue/Wed

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ecm upto t120 and is similar to this mornings run. Cold air flooding into the north.

Looks amazing for my neck of the woods- high ground in NW England

[tight isobar]

Russian and american warmth @pole keeping things interesting!

Waa sheering the vortex.

And atlantic waa also wants to head for greenland-latter frames.

A decent run ecm 12z. And may improve latersuites/..

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks amazing for my neck of the woods- high ground in NW England

Pretty sure inland areas will get snow from this of this comes off.

[Mucka]

Pretty stunning output through today since yesterday it seemed we were staring down the Atlantic barrel.

Will coldies have their noses rubbed in it again or is this the real deal?

Place your bets and strap in,

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Pretty sure inland areas will get snow from this of this comes off.

To pretty low levels based on EC. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Pretty sure inland areas will get snow from this of this comes off.

Yes if EC is correct the local hills will go white- and i would imagine the same could be said of Ulster.:)

[ICE COLD]

What a lovely chart  

[tight isobar]

Nice illustration of tri-segment polar vortex.

And yes that waa @Atlantic.....is blowing up nicely....

Ecm 12z.

Edited November 19, 2017 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Mucka said:

Pretty stunning output through today since yesterday it seemed we were staring down the Atlantic barrel.

Will coldies have their noses rubbed in it again or is this the real deal?

Place your bets and strap in,

TBH Mucka im sick of EC being wrong when it shows what coldies want, its happened far too many times much to my annoyance.

It better not be overamplifying again!

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Pretty stunning output through today since yesterday it seemed we were staring down the Atlantic barrel.

Will coldies have their noses rubbed in it again or is this the real deal?

Place your bets and strap in,

Indeed. Some consistency from ecm. Some consistency from the other two with some upgrades over the comings days would be great. Still much time to go but a good day. If we could get to this point, now that would be great.

Edited November 19, 2017 by That ECM

[bluearmy]

That ec cluster was around 6% on the 00z eps. given its repeated I expect a bigger one later. 

[nick sussex]

Not bad from the ECM but I’d like to see more amplification at T168hrs up stream to get more displacement nw of the high to the sw after that.

Its crucial to clear energy between the high to the west and Greenland , the shortwave at T168 hrs is too flat .

My margin for error warning system goes to amber for the ECM .

[northwestsnow]

Ends beautifully too- no easy way back to mild and wet from there!!

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not bad from the ECM but I’d like to see more amplification at T168hrs up stream to get more displacement nw of the high to the sw after that.

Its crucial to clear energy between the high to the west and Greenland , the shortwave at T168 hrs is too flat .

My margin for error warning system goes to amber for the ECM .

Not bad ? I think most of us were expecting to be staring down a +nao barrel only 24 hours ago, i'd say the EC 0z and 12z are fabulous!!

Compared to GFS ec is fabulous nick

Edited November 19, 2017 by northwestsnow

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes if EC is correct the local hills will go white- and i would imagine the same could be said of Ulster.:)

West facing hills - absolutely (inc west side Peak District) plus most Scottish high ground 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

West facing hills - absolutely (inc west side Peak District) plus most Scottish high ground 

yes Blue, the western Pennines too- i'm borderline but 2 miles up the road its 330m asl, won't be borderline there.The only question is precip- not sure how much would be involved- hopefully the irish sea will come alive