Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Daniel*]

15 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Could you elaborate further?

A shock emoji and chart isn't really helpful for those members who don't understand those charts

Quite, once in a while I lose my composure..

The vortex will be severely perturbed methinks. It is indicative tonight a very strong signal for a Greenland high and deep Scuero trough encompassing the vicinity of SE England, I think it could be quite snowy if...

[blizzard81]

The ecm control for debilt is very snowy at the end. Does anyone know what synoptics it is showing? Thank you in advance

[Dancerwithwings]

19 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Thats some serious thermodynamics

Its an' assault on any re-charge of establishment @the pole...

Its a burnt spaghetti format' into the polar regions...

And wonderfully-via greenland.

Which opt's cold advection to us on an' almost perfect scale.....

Come again.... some members won't understand any of that 

Just in case you don't understand......Layman's terms is to describe a complex or technical issue using words and terms that the average individual (someone without professional training in the subject area) can understand, so that they may comprehend the issue to some degree.

[tight isobar]

26 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Quite, once in a while I lose my composure..

The vortex will be severely perturbed methinks. It is indicative tonight a very strong signal for a Greenland high and deep Scuero trough encompassing the vicinity of SE England, I think it could be quite snowy if...

Well .

In a very quick nutshell..

The pv-being tampered with in the format it currently evaluates' is a large scale yes for cold transfer...

How cold/where transferable cold spills is an open-opponent.

As a minor maritime island(such as ours).. there is a mathmatical/nil-placement divergance on a scale of 80/20%..'against' for miniscule miss-placement-or dynamics to effect the overall outcome to a significant degree!..

However' those, equations are on the reduce' perm-by -perm...currently..

Thus creating a non -complex view' ..overall...

And simplifying' an' outcome of what you evaluate...but add-in your own nuiance/complexities...

And on an even'note' all roads really do lead to cold.

And imo' news making...perhaps soon!!

Edited November 25, 2017 by tight isobar

[Met4Cast]

11 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Come again.... some members won't understand any of that 

Just in case you don't understand......Layman's terms is to describe a complex or technical issue using words and terms that the average individual (someone without professional training in the subject area) can understand, so that they may comprehend the issue to some degree.

The Polar Vortex is under attack, it's being ripped apart and is all over the place like spaghetti, cold air is flooding Southwards out of the Poles whilst warm air floods Northwards into them, further weakening the already 'stringy spaghetti" vortex.

18z coming now, lets hope for some upgrades.

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Well .

In a very quick nutshell..

The pv-being tampered with in the format it currently evaluates' is a large scale yes for cold transfer...

How cold/where transferable cold spills is an open-opponent.

As a minor maritime island(such as ours).. there is a mathmatical/nil-placement divergance on a scale of 80/20%..'against' for miniscule miss-placement-or dynamics to effect the overall outcome to a significant degree!..

However' those, equations are on the reduce' perm-by -perm...currently..

Thus creating a non -complex view' ..overall...

And simplifying' an' outcome of what you evaluate...but add-in your own nuiance/complexities...

I'm not convinced that's cleared anything up..

Edited November 25, 2017 by Daniel Smith

[Snowyowl9]

Quite a jump on ECM from  to this dare I say an easterly.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The Polar Vortex is under attack, it's being ripped apart and is all over the place like spaghetti, cold air is flooding Southwards out of the Poles whilst warm air floods Northwards into them, further weakening the already 'stringy spaghetti" vortex.

18z coming now, lets hope for some upgrades.

I'm not convinced that's cleared anything up..

 

 

 

 

Indeed.anyway if I were a gambling man id punt at a half way house between ecm and gfs.not very technical but its the best I can mister atm.heres hoping the 18z upgrades !!!

 

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The Polar Vortex is under attack, it's being ripped apart and is all over the place like spaghetti, cold air is flooding Southwards out of the Poles whilst warm air floods Northwards into them, further weakening the already 'stringy spaghetti" vortex.

18z coming now, lets hope for some upgrades.

I'm not convinced that's cleared anything up..

And no sorry i was reffering to to spaghetti modeled hemisphere evaluation..

Not an italian on the p##s with a fork.

But spaghetti formats..

??

Or as some refer' noodle formats..

Edited November 25, 2017 by tight isobar

[karlos1983]

Have I just walked in on a master chef final? 

18z special required please 

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Have I just walked in on a master chef final? 

18z special required please 

Ha ha' fairplay'.iso/contour gradiants are especially telling on these out puts..

But complex... 

Im happy sticking with run to run ops /ens/control....

Much easier and as good as any tool..

Thats a fact!!

?

Edited November 25, 2017 by tight isobar

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ha ha' fairplay'.iso/contour gradiants are especialy telling on these out puts..

But complex... 

Im happy sticking with run to run ops /ens/control....

Much easier and as good as any tool..

Thats a fact!!

?

Ok then but you’ve totally lost me 

(genuinely concerned your account has been hacked)

Edited November 25, 2017 by karlos1983

[karlos1983]

The trend is most certainly not our friend 

Thats me done for the evening, I’m hungry all of a sudden

Edited November 25, 2017 by karlos1983

[Met4Cast]

It is less amplified but like the ECM, the block seems to be holding - I wonder if this'll lead to an Easterly too?

[tight isobar]

An abundance' of features is not good but...

Waa has ample backing for acheviement.

And hemisphericaly' is the form fav!..

 

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Could you say please? Please and thank you? Thank you.

 

as I am sure you are aware summer sun. It is suggesting a lot of high pressure in the northern hemisphere and as such a lot of blocking. 

Summer Sun may well be aware what the chart is showing, but many aren't. Team Jo asked earlier today if people would be so kind as to not just post a chart with no wording or context. 

Anyway, enjoy model watching all - I know I am! 

[Dean E]

GFS 18z at 120h, High slightly closer to the UK. Low Pressure (in red) over Canada seems to be causing an issue possibly... Will it sneak through towards Greenland?

[Ice Day]

Still cold, still tons of potential down the line.  

I'd bet my bottom dollar we'll end up with a cold end of the run. We'll see!

[northwestsnow]

Looks a variation on a very blocked theme-

The high will sink, its just a matter of timing- 

Very cold for the UK to usher in December

PS look how cold  Southern Norway is!! Im sure i heard some folk say there is no cold air to tap into..

[Day 10]

14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The trend is most certainly not our friend 

Thats me done for the evening, I’m hungry all of a sudden

Spaghetti by anychance?

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Still cold, still tons of potential down the line.  

I'd bet my bottom dollar we'll end up with a cold end of the run. We'll see!

100% potential is rife. Just a shame our 3-4 day northerly with heights building into Greenland, has turned into a 2 day max northerly and wait and see. Compared to a week ago I’m happy, but compared to a day ago, it’s not so good. Anyone who disagrees with that, either likes milder weather, or has had snow on the ground today.

Edited November 25, 2017 by karlos1983

[Don]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

100% potential is rife. Just a shame our 3-4 day northerly with heights building into Greenland, has turned into a 2 day max northerly and wait and see. Compared to a week ago I’m happy. 

That more often than not tends to be the way with northerlies these days.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Don said:

That more often than not tends to be the way with northerlies these days.

They are pretty rare full stop in recent years. 

[Dean E]

I think FI with the GFS starts around 126hrs onwards right now. From comparing it to the 12z, it continues that theme of the High in the Atlantic to slowly move our way, but never really making it. Looks like a reload maybe appearing towards the end.

However, until then we are getting a pronounced cold snap. Whether this continues is open to doubt. But the Atlantic is currently shut off and with something stirring in the Stratosphere, this truly is an exciting time for us!

Going to save this, best chart since 2010 IMO! 

 

 

Edited November 25, 2017 by Dean E
Removal of an unwanted chart!

[tight isobar]

Russian/peninsula ridge.

Versus pole heights' atlantic ridge!.

Its a momentum phase.

Of who' what /energy makes progress initialy!..

It still converts to cold..

But the evolution cannot decipher 'yet'..

Massive ramification' via placement/enable.

Edited November 25, 2017 by tight isobar

[markw2680]

9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

100% potential is rife. Just a shame our 3-4 day northerly with heights building into Greenland, has turned into a 2 day max northerly and wait and see. Compared to a week ago I’m happy, but compared to a day ago, it’s not so good. Anyone who disagrees with that, either likes milder weather, or has had snow on the ground today.

But chances are it will change again come tomorrow, it’s just different variations imo