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Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted

It does look like the Northerly will fizzle out after a few days but I think this has kind of been projected in previous runs also somewhat, its what happens after that is a massive uncertainty. Its ashame any Atlantic high may not last too long but as I said earlier on today, I still would not rule out the high in the Atlantic holding out for longer than we might think.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

I’ll take that lol. Could be a good few frames as hoped.

375597F7-DAFA-4BAE-91C4-3C7585421B8E.thumb.png.267b19edef1352fa1fdc52516c3adca7.png421E7C32-569A-4FA0-9223-DE10176D6803.thumb.png.049c209bc759bedd0602318b68bbbb4d.png

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

192 has began establishing an easterly. Cold uppers crossing norths sea low approaching SW could it be a channel low? 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM looks like it tries to bring a front se shown by that kink in the flow at T144hrs hrs . Possibly some snow off that depending on how much cold is ahead of that.

Strange looking T168hrs almost a col over the UK , I’d rather ditch the retrogression at this point and try and get a Scandi high.

The front means we see the jet cut through that ridge through the UK this actually ends well as we get that wedge of heights over scandinavia (just barely) but day 8 has us in an easterly flow.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Block just won't give up, great ECM run for sure. And now we have a cold continent to tap into. Looks like another strong HP heading north to Greenland too ?

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Why can't my fellow coldies just enjoy these Ecm 12z charts because it really does show an increasingly very cold period after Monday with snow for some and a high windchill factor in the fresh to strong Northerly arctic airflow with frosty / icy nights..make the most of whatever cold we get!:D:santa-emoji::cold:

72_mslp500.png

72_mslp850uk.png

72_thickuk.png

96_mslp850.png

96_thickuk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

120_mslp850.png

120_mslp850uk.png

120_thickuk.png

144_mslp500.png

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp850uk.png

It does indeed, Frosty...It's just a shame that the Triangle of Doom is conspicuous in sticking out from the deep blue!:shok:

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Its all due to factual modeling..

That post 96hrs its a major complexity..

There will be...

But again...

A revert to a flow of cold will win out..

Its coldie time...

And about time..

?

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Temps should plummet over the Continent with that decent upper cold and slack flow  which could be advected west towards the UK.

This retrogression doesn’t look quite right to me , I’d rather have a holding pattern of cold easterly before then!

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

The problem now is that Icelandic troughing at 192 we were willing on to move south with the retrogression to Greenland of the high, but now an Easterly is on the table its going to stop the cold getting right the way to the West and sustaining, we either need one or the other.

868FEBBC-BF48-4F5E-9B10-144176612C39.png

1C0DB353-BC25-42A0-9C6A-F5B23B46B1C1.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Verical infer..

And less expanse..

But good non-theless..

 

Say what? :diablo:

Not bad at all I see is variations of a cold and blocked theme all the models are flopping like a fish that’s to be expected. That’s all that is on the table for the foreseeable, no southwesterlies. 

Very cold eyes to the north east... 

868FEBBC-BF48-4F5E-9B10-144176612C39.thumb.png.753436c59a3da2b140338e52a72d82c2.png 

BOOM!...

1C0DB353-BC25-42A0-9C6A-F5B23B46B1C1.thumb.png.64607b9ca06d50f91e3e0d50ff58cf39.png

 

 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Huge difference on  ecm from this morning esp on the nhp and pv position. Really big swings here and nothing can be  discounted. 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Now THAT, is cold.

1.thumb.gif.3e736b5c7beef42d4d57de877433dc23.gif2.thumb.gif.39afdcbfcef872fd48b7ff5dbe943904.gif

And with a few small changes I can see ukmo going a similar way t168 from ukmo will be interesting.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The problem now is that Icelandic troughing at 192 we were willing on to move south with the retrogression to Greenland of the high, but now an Easterly is on the table its going to stop the cold getting right the way to the West and sustaining, we either need one of the other.

Very good point made Feb , that’s why I’d rather the models went for the Scandi high because that’s easier to get through from where we start than the retrogression .

We don’t want half measures.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Maybe some folk should wait for the run to near completion before saying its a downgrade, all is lost etc..next week looks like becoming much colder on the Gfs / Ecm 12z with snow for some and frosts for all..not bad for the end of autumn huh!:santa-emoji:;)

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

Atlantic high, Scandi high, Greenland high. Who cares, as long as one is right and we all end up with snow!

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Reload then.....sigh 

AD264CDB-41E0-40C4-9C83-2E6610993B57.thumb.png.a69d1815570874d797b5c65b54224c8c.png

Edited by karlos1983
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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Its all due to factual modeling..

That post 96hrs its a major complexity..

There will be...

But again...

A revert to a flow of cold will win out..

Its coldie time...

And about time..

?

You are a poet and you didn't know it:D

C.S

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

Well great ecm in my opinion. Very cold as from Monday and no southerly airmass in sight. And towards end of run we import air from the east. Wrap up warm folks it gonna  be :cold::cold:

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