Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

There was plenty evidence last night that future locked in cold was in doubt. The mid range had changed where the Atlantic high rather than retrogressing towards Iceland was staying in situ and energy was spilling over the high.

Also the ecm from last night had the coldest uppers washing out by Friday so what's happened thus afternoon is no surprise to me.

Yes a great start to Winter with oodles of potential going fwd but no great potential of widespread snowfall for the majority. I think the form horse is for the Atlantic to usher in milder air into week 2 with potential blocking again later in December 

I think that that's an understatement, JS...there are sound reasons for why winters like 1947, '63, '79 and 2010 are as rare as hens' teeth...

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO v ECM at +72. Ecm much better 

Look almost identical to me...big few frames coming up..

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Easy shakester!!!! Critical part is 96 -120

True but early on is important in terms of amplification 

[Ice Day]

I've put on my jewellers eyepiece and I'm yet to see anything of concern out to 96.  Looks very similar to 0z thus far......steady as she goes.

  

[Geordiesnow]

11 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

There was plenty evidence last night that future locked in cold was in doubt. The mid range had changed where the Atlantic high rather than retrogressing towards Iceland was staying in situ and energy was spilling over the high.

Also the ecm from last night had the coldest uppers washing out by Friday so what's happened thus afternoon is no surprise to me.

Yes a great start to Winter with oodles of potential going fwd but no great potential of widespread snowfall for the majority. I think the form horse is for the Atlantic to usher in milder air into week 2 with potential blocking again later in December 

But there is now potential for snowfall for some next week and I would not rule out being a bit more widespread either, whats changed in the output is the Svalbard low moving towards Scandi instead of staying over Svalbard which helps to develop a TRUE stright line Northerly from the Arctic. Uppers are slightly colder as a result and I would not be surprised if they do end up being cold enough for snow in eastern areas via convective showers aslong as the wind stays off shore.

[ArHu3]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Be annoying! Lol I haven’t seen much about UKMO bias. 

I have seen plenty of +144h pretty nice ukmo charts get downgraded, its charts never look as exciting as ecmwf but still good, do I guess it has a slight overamplification bias or errs on the slow side

[North East Blizzard]

Very interesting. Possible reversal predicted as we head in to December. 

[karlos1983]

Well, ecm at +120 the coldest uppers are starting to be eroded away as the high sinks. 

 

 

Edited November 25, 2017 by karlos1983

[That ECM]

T96 I know it's not for the majority but for some this will be fun. That will feel bitter.

[tight isobar]

Ec/gfs look v-similar @96..

But the divergance from here will be crucial...

And most likely complex!!!

Edited November 25, 2017 by tight isobar

[karyo]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Well, ecm at +120 the coldest uppers are starting to be eroded as the high sinks 

Yes, a bit of a downgrade from the 0z ECM. No northeasterly component in the flow either.

[karlos1983]

Luckily we still have time for this to change, but it is a concern given the output we have seen from the 12z so far. Although the ECM may still find away to reload the gun in the remaining frames. Bit of a disappointing afternoons viewing.

[swfc]

Early changes on ecm regarding heigths and position. Possibly to a West based position and nao.hmmm scrap that the shortwave splits the high lol

Edited November 25, 2017 by swfc

[nick sussex]

The ECM looks messy with some shortwave energy running over the block and trying to head back south .

We need the jet loop back sw to cut under the high .

 

 

Edited November 25, 2017 by nick sussex

[Summer Sun]

t144 sees slightly less cold air moving into the west

 

[tight isobar]

Verical infer..

And less expanse..

But good non-theless..

 

[Ice Day]

Cold still hanging on, just at 144.  Models are picking up some new signals today that aren't necessarily the best for us coldies....in the short term.  Let's see how this progresses.

[karyo]

Basically the ECM 144 hours is showing the Atlantic high sinking close to Iberia. 

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, a bit of a downgrade from the 0z ECM. No northeasterly component in the flow either.

Yep, the block is now collapsing slightly compared to previous runs, just have to see if another influx of WAA can assist or if we can link with the heights over Siberia - tricky one to forecast beyond day 5 now, however I still think something special could pop up!!

[Paul_1978]

Upgrade, downgrade, upgrade downgrade.......... 

Come on guys, we have the same every run. Nothing is really changing. You're always going to get variances. The overall pattern is the same.

[nick sussex]

The ECM looks like it tries to bring a front se shown by that kink in the flow at T144hrs hrs . Possibly some snow off that depending on how much cold is ahead of that.

Strange looking T168hrs almost a col over the UK , I’d rather ditch the retrogression at this point and try and get a Scandi high.

Edited November 25, 2017 by nick sussex

[frosty ground]

It's still cold by 168.... and the high isn' sinking it's simply disintegrating.

 

Looks like pressure is building over scandi

[Snowman.]

168 on the ECM is near boom territory cold uppers in the wings on the east side also little wind could be v cold.

[Frosty.]

Why can't my fellow coldies just enjoy these Ecm 12z charts because it really does show an increasingly very cold period after Monday with snow for some and a high windchill factor in the fresh to strong Northerly arctic airflow with frosty / icy nights..make the most of whatever cold we get!

[That ECM]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Unblocked 

 

And not un blocked yer pays yer money yer takes yer chance.... 

Edited November 25, 2017 by That ECM