Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Spot the difference.. 

Something we should be keeping a very close eye on aside from the joy of the snow. 

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM is being cruel to us southerners drowned rats come to mind.

You can add the whole isle of Ireland too cold rain 

[pyrotech]

Not a huge difference between the surface pressure charts by Meto and GFS for 12z Friday, At that stage it seems GFS has the backing of Mogreps and thats leading to a very interesting period tomorrow where we see what Meto are thinking as the sliding low lines up

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm slightly further west than this morining!!needs to keep goin west with the slider!!not too far west of course!!

Yes, further west, not enough, milder on Sunday on this run, but way off yet, GFS has track too far west, far from nailed yet, hope for W shift on 00Z EC

[Snowy L]

I like the ECM 168 more than the GFS 168. The slider goes South East to the UK then when it hits it goes directly south towards Spain with no further movement east. Hopefully a good sign for a Scandi High later in the run.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Snowy L

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Spot the difference.. 

Something we should be keeping a very close eye on aside from the joy of the snow. 

As the deep low pulls away into North Sea *eek* potential for there to be significant impacts for the East Coast currently I would put it at low risk. I believe tides will be higher then what they were back then too. 

[tight isobar]

And the 850-cold train opens up again-168..

Ec having a little trouble here finding its feet...

[The PIT]

Cool the polar vortex gets dumped over our side of the pond for once. 

[igloo]

yes not quite cold enough for any snow from the slider unless your in the north east of scotland  even then its border line but still there is plenty of time for it to move further west but the ecm is not great it flattens the HP in little over 24h 

[karlos1983]

As a few have noted, ECM has backed west already, not surprised and wouldn’t be surprised if it’s backs further west in the next time. 

Mid you are showing as rain now, don’t lose hope!

 

[Summer Sun]

Atlantic having a go at t192

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

And the 850-cold train opens up again-168..

Ec having a little trouble here finding its feet...

I's hardly on its own with the foot-finding is it?

Anyway, with uppers anywhere between -6 and -10C (GFS) likely, many folks will see some of the white stuff this coming weekend...Can't really complain about that, eh?

[Snowyowl9]

Looking stormy for the north Thursday.

[blizzard81]

Does anyone have chance to post the ecm snowchart please? 

[steveinsussex]

While the models look great At first glance, they just don’t deliver what most coldies want.... ah well, it’s early days, bring on the beast 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Cool the polar vortex gets dumped over our side of the pond for once. 

I'd prefer the Canadian chunk to the scandi one ..................

[Mark Neal.]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Does anyone have chance to post the ecm snowchart please? 

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/england/snow-depth/20171204-2100z.html

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Does anyone have chance to post the ecm snowchart please? 

Not bad eh

Edited December 4, 2017 by Summer Sun

[stewfox]

12 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Spot the difference.. 

Something we should be keeping a very close eye on aside from the joy of the snow. 

I can see it.

524 Dam line in 1953  for the South East and 552 in 2017 for South East 

If roughly 540 for snow all things being equal' the difference is snow in 1953 for South East England and rain for 2017 for South East England  'all things being equal'

2017

1953

 

Edited December 4, 2017 by stewfox

[bluearmy]

the next system not diving enough but will bring leading edge snowfall north of the midlands

[gottolovethisweather]

12 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Looking stormy for the north Thursday.

And a couple of active fronts chasing the 528DAM line southwards. As stated in my previous post, I think this might also improve coldies hopes rather than anything else, as it might well produce deeper cold 850s than currently modelled. A lot for the professional forecasters to consider this week.

Also, I just saw my local tv forecast, goes from 13c Thursday to a max of 4c on Friday. Who knows where it'll go from there, but Fax charts will give us sound guidance as ever, thanks for sharing.

Edited December 4, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[Summer Sun]

Wet n windy at D9 maybe a bit of snow for Scotland on the mountains

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

While the models look great At first glance, they just don’t deliver what most coldies want.... ah well, it’s early days, bring on the beast 

Aye, S...the three-month-long perpetual blizzard ( that deposits 30cm of snow each day) is clearly not on the cards. This time!

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not bad eh

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not bad eh

Bank!