Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[NorthernRab]

2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

This side of the Atlantic its called the Pacific ridge..like the Azores High

Indeed. Joke maybe missed though! 

[nick sussex]

Okay now that everyone’s beginning to calm down after the GFS thriller there are some things to bear in mind here.

Unfortunately the track of the shortwave low won’t please everyone because the snow on the northern flank can’t hit the whole UK, although luckily because of the depth of cold some backedge snow is also likely which broadens the area .

I’m hoping things could get shared out , so if you miss the main snow you get snow showers.

I would like nothing more than to put a Code White !

But don’t bank on the low even hitting the UK , the main hurdle to get the northerly in is still not a done deal.

If the low does hit treat it as a bonus and think of what you might have been happy with after this mornings outputs.

Anyway that’s my sensible eat your greens post for today! 

[booferking]

Best ens set of the year i wait tomorrow with interest.

[ICE COLD]

Could someone post the 18z GEFS Please . The I use it not working . Cheers ?

[Craigers]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Could someone post the 18z GEFS Please . The I use it not working . Cheers ?

If only it was like this on the 00z ?

[Duane S.]

Time to reflect on a pretty memorable day of chart outputs. .

Rewind 18 hours and following on from a slow decent into what was perceived to be 'familiar territory', there were enough towels thrown in by Netweather members to keep the worldwide hotel industry going for a decade. Doom and gloom on a level not seen, well, since probably a few days ago when the models had their last little hiccup.

Then, starting with the 06z, a progression of fantastic 'upgrages' through the day and, of course, the scene was inevitably set for the great showman himself, the attention seeking 18z. With an op run and accompanying set of GEFS that ONLY  the 18z seemingly could muster, we leave today, fingers crossed that tomorrow it's more of the same please.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Could someone post the 18z GEFS Please . The I use it not working . Cheers ?

This is the only site with 18z ensembles on but you cant copy and paste so here is the link.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50196&model=gfs&var=2&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, Craigers said:

If only it was like this on the 00z ?

That's the 12z have you got the 18z . Cheers ?

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Its  hard not to be seduced by runs like GFS18Z but i'd strongly advise  not expecting these kind of temps- but look at those temps between the wed - sat, this is midday temps

Absolutely going to be a huge outlier on the GEFS set..

Have you seen the feel like temperature (windchill) extraordinarily cold. Sidney’s nuts will be cold...

 

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is the only site with 18z ensembles on but you cant copy and paste so here is the link.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?geoid=50196&model=gfs&var=2&run=18&lid=ENS&bw=1

Cheers Feb . There's only 1 way there going at the min and that's down . Hope it's even better on the mornings runs .?

[Had Worse]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Have you seen the feel like temperature (windchill) extraordinarily cold. Sidney’s nuts will be cold...

 

Is ramping about Sidneys nuts allowed on this thread.

Keeping a very close eye on preceedings with the 18z offering. That would be a monumental event if (big if) it verified.

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Is ramping about Sidneys nuts allowed on this thread.

Keeping a very close eye on preceedings with the 18z offering. That would be a monumental event if (big if) it verified.

Not ramping just describing. Occasional light banter is acceptable as long as it does not consume the post. And nuts is an homonym...

Glitched? Only a 1325% chance of snow in the Capital on Saturday. GEFS are looking much better than they did early this morning for the cold reload unless this is faulty.

Edited November 29, 2017 by Daniel*

[SylvainTV]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Not ramping just describing. Occasional light banter is acceptable as long as it does not consume the post. And nuts is an homonym...

Glitched? Only a 1325% chance of snow in the Capital on Saturday. GEFS are looking much better than they did early this morning unless this faulty.

There were some NCEP server issues tonight causing delay and weirdness like that. I will rebuild all now  Not many perturbation data are faulty, Most is ok.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, SylvainTV said:

There were some NCEP server issues tonight causing delay and weirdness like that. I will rebuild all now  Not many perturbation data are faulty, Most is ok.

That’s good to hear. Cheers  

[The Eagle]

Little sympathy for the GFS evolution on the 18z NAVGEM

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php

[Mucka]

ECM ensembles showing a cold signal again, albeit not an especially strong one, in the 12z set but also plenty of scatter with milder set ups. A little confidence is added by the fairly tight clustering of the cold solutions but we will know more after this mornings output.

Meanwhile GFS 00z rolling out.

Looks good with a sharper trough so cold should arrive a tad earlier - just need to keep an eye on the shortwave around Greenland as it slides down the ridge - should help if anything and could be a snow bringer later int he run.

 

[Mucka]

UKMO out to 120 looking good

GFS unfortunately has formed the bowling ball Atlantic low as with last nights ECM, still time for things to go TU I guess. That shortwave is is dropping down and helping sharpen the ridge though so that may help.

Edit

UKMO 144 the Atlantic low is there again but better trough and better upstream than GFS whereas GFS slightly more amplified - you pays your money...

Edited November 29, 2017 by Mucka

[The Eagle]

UKMO semi decent.

 

GFS fairly similar to the 18z - some relatively minor differences. Will get there in the end but the evolution is a little "riskier" than previous.

Edited November 29, 2017 by The Eagle

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

UKMO semi decent.

 

GFS fairly similar to the 18z - some relatively minor differences. Will get there in the end but the evolution is a little "riskier" than previous.

Yes it is but it is much more progressive upstream this run. Let's see if the ridge can withstand it.

GEM goes mental with that Atlantic low. Dare I say not unlike last nights ECM?

I could be making my last ever post if ECM turns out like that

Edited November 29, 2017 by Mucka

[The Eagle]

Funny enough the arrival of polar air is spot on with the 18z timing wise, despite synoptic differences.

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Funny enough the arrival of polar air is spot on with the 18z timing wise, despite synoptic differences.

Yes it is really bringing the Scandi trough into focus now, just upstream to resolve. We could really do with the first shortwave pushing SE instead of N to prevent the phasing and invigorated Atlantic low occurring.

 

[geordiekev]

00z GFS As you were thankfully with -10 line sinking south of Scotland in a week's time on 6th Dec 

Edited November 29, 2017 by geordiekev
Time corrected

[SMU]

4 hours ago, SylvainTV said:

There were some NCEP server issues tonight causing delay and weirdness like that. I will rebuild all now  Not many perturbation data are faulty, Most is ok.

Hi @SylvainTV

any chance of getting UKMO 168 on meteociel?

thanks

Steve

[Mucka]

GFS day 10 writing on the wall. Certainly not the fireworks of the 18z and the pattern gets flattened East as a knock on from the energy running over the block rather than undercutting.

Given the last run showed this for the same time-frame it isn't really worth crying over.

Edited November 29, 2017 by Mucka

[geordiekev]

Defo no complaints in the 10 day range from the GFS 0z, cold sinking south quicker

EDIT:prob best to leave it there as FI is well FI,or maybe a peek through one eye

Edited November 29, 2017 by geordiekev