Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

[snowice]

Everyone glued to 18z

[Met4Cast]

18z. Better energy separation, better orientated high towards Greenland with more amplification.

Note the negative tilt of the lows and the high, this is going to end in an awesome Greenland high yet again.

[shaky]

18z looking better than the 12z?

[Ice Day]

Looking good at 138.  Better heights moving into Greenland....don't want to jinx anything but looks pretty good to me

[comet]

This is lining up to be a pub run special me thinks.

[festivalking]

I still worry about the heights to the south though

[Met4Cast]

Just now, festivalking said:

I still worry about the heights to the south though

They should be sucked Westwards as the high begins to retrogress and the lows undercut South-Eastwards in the next few frames. Shortwave dropping South from Iceland looks like a snow event for some too 

[joggs]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Looking good at 138.  Better heights moving into Greenland....don't want to jinx anything but looks pretty good to me

Maybe towards west based?

[Dennis]

next round

 

Edited November 28, 2017 by Dennis

[SMU]

I think the GFS has performed quite well in the run up to the current Northerly spell & its settling down again after the nervy moments this morning

A wedge of high pressure does seem to get through however its the atlantic trough thats causing all the trouble-

The GFS eventually brings it east to reinvigorate the Northerly where as the ECM ejects it out North-

History tells us East... through the highs midpoint

GFS 144 shows what I think is going to be a fair locale before it starts tracking east -

 

[Met4Cast]

Just now, joggs said:

Maybe towards west based?

Doesn't look very West based to me

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, festivalking said:

I still worry about the heights to the south though

In a few frames time there wont be any, there's no spoilers on this run to stop the Northerly powering all the way down into France now, perfect Greenland block, shortwaves to far away and would be too late to the party, what we need now is some disturbances and as low uppers as possible.

[Man With Beard]

This is going to be an absolute blast. What is over Iceland at this time is heading straight for us. I reckon -10C uppers well into the UK by T198

 

Edited November 28, 2017 by Man With Beard

[Ice Day]

Up to 156 it's a significant improvement against the 12z

18z 

12z

[Met4Cast]

Direct hit!

Better ridging. Better shortwave locations. That cold is heading straight for us. I didn't expect the 18z to beat the 12z run, I really didn't.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Up to 156 it's a significant improvement against the 12z

18z 

12z

Going to be a cracking run this .

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

The trend is definitely back for the northerly next week

[Man With Beard]

One thing I've been watching all day is 1) is that low just to the west of Ireland going to make it to the UK (represented by the very heavy precip.) and 2) is it going to bang into the Arctic air as it does? If both answers are "yes", there could be a whiteout somewhere. 

EDIT: I think I have my answer:

  

(All just for fun at the moment, of course )

Edited November 28, 2017 by Man With Beard

[tight isobar]

Perfect modeling of split flow..nothrn uk..

Iceland/greenland...

As the ridge gets clean...

And the draw of polar air increases.

 

 

Edited November 28, 2017 by tight isobar

[radiohead]

Oh hello. Look at that low!

[tight isobar]

[Met4Cast]

GFS is probably going to do a special and blow that low up into something ridiculous now

In reality it'll be a smaller wave like feature, if it even develops in reality. The heights across France aren't great but that's me being picky.

[radiohead]

Deepening low with cold air on the north side. Blizzards for some!

Edited November 28, 2017 by radiohead

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Direct hit!

Better ridging. Better shortwave locations. That cold is heading straight for us. I didn't expect the 18z to beat the 12z run, I really didn't.

I don't like the look of that ridging over Europe.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Oh hello. Look at that low!

bloody shortwave! horrible day that