North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[SP1986]

I don't believe my area will get snow however I think Merseyside east of Kirkby will.

[Weather-history]

Timelapse I did last night

 

[Day 10]

53 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

And we have a snow warning!

I love the way the warning avoids Liverpool, Wirral & coastal areas like the plague! Another event to file under the joke category!

[Thunder Snow]

hopfully should see alittle snow tonight and tomorrow

[Chris.R]

48 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Is the centre of the low keeping to our south then? I thought it was due to come over us?

 The winds will go on-shore later on I was talking more about in the morning. 

[carl1980]

 Snow to the coast going by this radar loop,how much I don't know

[Geordiesnow]

55 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 They‘re probably thinking the irish sea will have some influence but I’m telling you now it won’t! The wind is off-shore; that makes all the difference. 

Yeah but the upper air temperatures look rather unremarkable and it does not really look like a shallow feature too me so maybe that' why they are saying places above 100m could see the more disruptive snowfall where lower levels will likely too see snow falling but struggling to settle.

[Had Worse]

Love these contrasting weather patterns.

Edited December 28, 2017 by Had Worse

[Chris.R]

37 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Heavy easterly component to the wind and with evaporative cooling it will snow at sea level.

 That’s it exactly...or are you being sarcastic, can never tell with you lol :-)

[SP1986]

The amusing thing is 100m elevation near the coast (I'm talking my town) because there are really any 100m elevation points near the coast in southern part of northwest England) .. is that the layers at 100m will probably be milder than the lower layers... So expect ice pellets and snow at lower elevations further east whilst moderate elevation here will get rain.

Edited December 28, 2017 by SP1986

[karyo]

Funny that nobody even mentions tomorrow's weather on the model discussion thread. If it doesn't affect the south it is not worth mentioning. lol

[Alexis]

Heavy soft hail showers here (Whitefield at 113m)

[Chris.R]

9 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Yeah but the upper air temperatures look rather unremarkable and it does not really look like a shallow feature too me so maybe that' why they are saying places above 100m could see the more disruptive snowfall where lower levels will likely too stee snow falling but struggling to settle.

  In my experience as long as the 850s are below 0 and the precipitation is heavy enough we should be ok. Don’t forget melting as well as  evaporation is endothermic.  

Edited December 28, 2017 by Chris.R

[damianslaw]

Quite an odd amber weather warning area - very precise, and I don't think the Met will have it right at this range, heaviest precipitation won't be known until it is started. Alas most of the region should see some snow falling from the sky first thing, how much and for how long - a nowcasting event. 

The higher up you are and away from the coast and further north and east, the greater the likelihood the snow will be heavier, longer lasting in duration, with less of a quick turn to sleety rain. I'm hoping for a couple of inches, not much more, and that it doesn't quickly thaw, i.e. lasts through the afternoon, temps don't look like getting much above 3 degrees here at least, which should help maintain a cover, through until Sat.

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Quite an odd amber weather warning area - very precise, and I don't think the Met will have it right at this range, heaviest precipitation won't be known until it is started. Alas most of the region should see some snow falling from the sky first thing, how much and for how long - a nowcasting event. 

The higher up you are and away from the coast and further north and east, the greater the likelihood the snow will be heavier, longer lasting in duration, with less of a quick turn to sleety rain. I'm hoping for a couple of inches, not much more, and that it doesn't quickly thaw, i.e. lasts through the afternoon, temps don't look like getting much above 3 degrees here at least, which should help maintain a cover, through until Sat.

I think Cumbria will do really well and there is a possibility for a bit more snow there tomorrow night into early Saturday.

[Chris.R]

This is reminding me a lot of 25th Jan 2013. That started off as graupel/ice pellets as there was a warm inversion layer above the surface. It then turned to rain, then heavy snow giving 2 inches before turning to rain again. 850s were only about 0 to -1 then if I remember correctly. A very exciting evening. 

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

This is reminding me a lot of 25th Jan 2013. That started off as graupel/ice pellets as there was a warm inversion layer above the surface. It then turned to rain, then heavy snow giving 2 inches before turning to rain again. 850s were only about 0 to -1 then if I remember correctly. A very exciting evening. 

I wish I had your confidence Chris, it looks a dodgy setup for us here I think. Yes snow may fall for a time but I don't think it will stick or last. It would be fantastic if it stalled or didn't push through as quick as forecast though which can happen, we'll see everything crossed.

[Barmada_Casten]

12 minutes ago, karyo said:

I think Cumbria will do really well and there is a possibility for a bit more snow there tomorrow night into early Saturday.

Personally living in Cumbria (south lakes) I can tell you we won't. Been here so many times before we will either miss out completely or get a minuscule amount to everyone else. Past experience has taught me to expect to be let down. 

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I wish I had your confidence Chris, it looks a dodgy setup for us here I think. Yes snow may fall for a time but I don't think it will stick or last. It would be fantastic if it stalled or didn't push through as quick as forecast though which can happen, we'll see everything crossed.

I’m always confident until proven otherwise. Not bothered  about it hanging around, you can’t have your cake and eat it. It’s been 2010 since snow lasted for longer than 48 hours here so what’s a bit longer going to hurt. 

[karyo]

Just now, Barmada_Casten said:

Personally living in Cumbria (south lakes) I can tell you we won't. Been here so many times before we will either miss out completely or get a minuscule amount to everyone else. Past experience has taught me to expect to be let down. 

I know Cumbria has had a lot of let downs but this time it is an organised system with loads of precipitation. What makes you think that it will miss out Cumbria?

Looking at the satellite shows how well developed the system is (currently approaching Ireland) https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair

[Chris.R]

Hey Saturday morning is looking interesting for a time as well. Winds back again and become light. Evaporative cooling will have a chance to shine. 

[Frost HoIIow]

Amber warning for Greater Manchester, hopefully it won't downgrade like the slider low a week or two ago. 

[Day 10]

16 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I’m always confident until proven otherwise. Not bothered  about it hanging around, you can’t have your cake and eat it. It’s been 2010 since snow lasted for longer than 48 hours here so what’s a bit longer going to hurt. 

Are you joking! 1 cake every 4-5 years. I'm sorry but that's sh##te! And that gap appears to be growing.

[chiffer]

If i see a flake or if I don't I wont be that interested, it is yet another marginal setup for my area so it's not worth investing the time.

For the people in greater higher altitudes in greater manchester you should be rather happy though

[iand61]

Nice to see myself slap back in the middle of the amber zone now not because i’m expecting a day after tomorrow scale dumping but because after the letdown earlier in the month, I can’t imagine the Met O getting is so wrong again.