Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[Paul]

After much consideration, I figured it was better to keep the thread title as is, in the hope that we can just get on with chatting about our common interest in the forecasting models in a friendly and reasonable way, especially as Christmas is coming  

Want to have a bit of banter or a ramp and moan only loosely related to the models?
The banter thread is for you:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

Want to talk about the weather in your part of the country?
The regional threads are the place for you:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Want to view the model outputs?
You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:

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GEFS Ensembles
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NetWx-SR
NetWx-MR
Met-Office
Fax
GEM
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Snow forecast and precip type
Model Comparison
Global Jet Stream
Stratosphere

Merry Christmas 

[Portland Paul]

Merry Christmas Paul, and to one and all! 

Just gone through the 6z GFS; after several mild and cloudy days until Christmas Day, we go into a few turbulent days, with some shots of cold air over the northern half of the UK, so the chance of wintry showers, maybe a surprise snowfall for a few

[Frosty.]

According to the GEFS 6z mean, next week indicates not only an unsettled spell but also a rather cold period for most of next week, cold enough for snow in places, especially further north and with elevation as well as night frosts and ice..so, potentially some wintry weather to look forward to during christmas week!

[phil nw.]

35 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

According to the GEFS 6z mean, next week indicates not only an unsettled spell but also a rather cold period for most of next week, cold enough for snow in places, especially further north and with elevation as well as night frosts and ice..so, potentially some wintry weather to look forward to during christmas week!

 

Yes i was just flicking through those Frosty and some places could see a 5 day cold spell.These are 2m temperatures from the 06gefs

C Scotland C.England 

Certainly a colder period creeping up on us between Christmas and New year.Maybe no deep freeze but as i posted yesterday the further north and higher up the better chances of seeing some snowfall.

The jet coming much further south next week as the Azores high is flattened 

Some quite cold polar maritime air being brought further down by a couple of secondary wave depressions with -3/-5C uppers.

Certainly the further south these disturbances track the more chance of snow further away from the usual favoured locations.Looking at those gef 2m temperatures daytime maxs close to freezing in C.Scotland and below 4C for C.England for 4/5 days should maintain some interest for Winter lovers.

[karyo]

The 12z ICON is offering a brief northwesterly 26-27th Dec before the next depression moves in. 

Yesterday's 12z was a bit wintrier though.

[NorthernRab]

 

Much better heights over Greenland on the latest GFS!

[frosty ground]

Not far from a great chart.... Shame about the other side of the pond

[karyo]

1 minute ago, NorthernRab said:

 

Much better heights over Greenland on the latest GFS!

Yes, and the Azores high is a bit more suppressed to the southwest compared to the 6z.

[s4lancia]

Surprised no comments yet on the 12z, trying desperately to bring a northerly in, GL heights making a better fist of things. If we get get the jet south enough, look out for a wedge 

[shaky]

And ukmo is slider alert?!!i swear this thread is so depressing today especially in the morning!!i dont think i have ever seen steve murr been as down as he was this morning in a long time!!hopefully we can continue to see upgrades for next week!

[Day 10]

Cold air squeezing south, shame it looks pretty dry though.

[karyo]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

And ukmo is slider alert?!!i swear this thread is so depressing today especially in the morning!!i dont think i have ever seen steve murr been as down as he was this morning in a long time!!hopefully we can continue to see upgrades for next week!

The 144 hour UKMO is a peach for Scotland!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

[feb1991blizzard]

Big active weather front slider scenario coming up here - can it be the right side of marginal though.

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 144 hour UKMO is a peach for Scotland!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

Few tweaks and it is a peach for the the whole of england!!

[Weathizard]

12z making a fool of those writing off winter, sliders galore. Northern areas would be favoured, of course. Scotland looks on gleefully, not that they probably want it they have enough ?  greedy.

[karyo]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Few tweaks and it is a peach for the the whole of england!!

It is a good start to the afternoon output. I will take that for now. 

[Methuselah]

Not three bad, I guess...

[frosty ground]

Southerly tracking Jet but look towards the North Of Scandinavia.... East to west movement,

[cheshire snow]

8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Cold air squeezing south, shame it looks pretty dry though.

Yes 

Rather dry and cold/cool than wet and mild

C.S

[Methuselah]

And...some potential.

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Yes 

Rather dry and cold/cool than wet and mild

C.S

Fast forward a bit and it is snow for all - Midlands North this time nxt week 

 

 

[tight isobar]

15 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

 

Much better heights over Greenland on the latest GFS!

Gem brings it in @144-northerly.

there is plenty to be looking out for in terms of a colder 'picture' from around boxing day/26/30 dec.

and even minor tweaks could throw a few suprises into the mix!!!

[Paul_1978]

5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Southerly tracking Jet but look towards the North Of Scandinavia.... East to west movement,

Good spot regarding north of Scandinavia. What's the outcome on that for us?

[Day 10]

Maybe there could be 1 or 2 surprise snowfalls from this setup in about a weeks time???

[feb1991blizzard]

12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Big active weather front slider scenario coming up here - can it be the right side of marginal though.

YES