SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[Stuie]

...and I will join you Snowray with the Arpege tomorrow...

We have to keep clutching those straws!

EDIT:

ECM has -6 uppers too at 1pm

Edited February 8, 2018 by Stuie W

[Lauren]

I never normally sleep with the heating on but I think I will be tonight. My house just doesn't want to warm up!

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Lampostwatcher said:

UPGRADE ALERT 

?Louise Lear showed Saturday's front going through 

then in the Atlantic all white snow showers and said 

different story come 2nd half of weekend ALL snow blowing around in the wind 

You drunk? 

[Met4Cast]

Just now, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

At least their Chief Meteorolgist likes snow

https://mobile.twitter.com/snow73?lang=en

That explains the snow band on the BBC forecast then..

[Daniel*]

Parameters do support falling snow fairly widely looking at Euro4 tomorrow. 

[smarklew]

Facebook has just greeted me with

”good evening. Are you ready for the snow in Kent tomorrow?”

What do they know that I don’t?

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, snowray said:

What year would that have been Alex?

Can't remember the year, but it was rather annoying. May have been 2010, but not the main cold spell. Think I had to do similar twice. Briton rd is useless in snow as it goes through Croydon then up to the north downs, the trouble starts there and filters down.

[tinybill]

well looking  at the models  they are to good to be true for our neck of the woods !!

[tinybill]

21 minutes ago, smarklew said:

Facebook has just greeted me with

”good evening. Are you ready for the snow in Kent tomorrow?”

What do they know that I don’t?

well looking at the bbc amy thing could happen after the frount goes through !!!

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, snowblind said:

What sort of reputation do the metogroup have does anyone know? Appart from now supplying data to the BBC I've never heard of them. Did they used to be called something else?

I think but not sure, they do the sky weather.

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, smarklew said:

Does anyone use Weather Live App? I signed up for a free trial this week, and it is forecasting heavy snow for me (Tunbridge wells) tomorrow morning at 9am. I’m trying to work out which model it uses cos none of my other apps or websites agree.....! 

Cant see it will happen, but it’s a very pretty graphic! 

Probably whatever model the BBC are using to get that really snowy graphic they are using.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

I think theres more chance of some flakes up in MK then there is around London, I noticed that some models are showing snow north of London, particularly East Anglia tomorrow. Arome for example.

I'll believe the bit over east Kent when I see it.

[E17boy]

Just been to the MOD thread and  there is charts like this being talked about 

Whether charts like these are going to verify is another thing. I will get more excited if this was more nearer the time frame. 

Would love to hear Steve Murrs thoughts on the next few days for our region. 

Regards ????

[snowblind]

59 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I think but not sure, they do the sky weather.

Thanks. Don't really watch the sky weather not sure if they are any good or not. None of the TV forecasts seem to be much cop these days, even country file,not like the good old days with the magnetic symbols - showing my age there.

[alexisj9]

Very windy here, I'm quite surprised. Didn't expect this at all. Mind you it's not really all that, strong, think I forgot what the wind sounded like.

[snowblind]

2 hours ago, Stuie W said:

...and I will join you Snowray with the Arpege tomorrow...

We have to keep clutching those straws!

EDIT:

ECM has -6 uppers too at 1pm

Looks interesting... Why not straw clutch it's being shown on the models and the BBC I think, although with those graphics it's not really clear, so it's a possibility at least. Might not settle but then again it might. Some of us might get a surprise if a bit of luck is on our side.

[Met4Cast]

It looks like East Anglia is the place to be again for this one.

The first band moving through will be all rain, but an occlusion behind it moving through in colder air looks likely to turn wintry across EA as it moves through, here's the APERGE

EURO4 less keen on the idea with the system generally dying, though with the 6 hour time jumps it's a little harder to be sure

HIRLAM see it differently and brings the snow risk into London/SE rather than East Anglia

The ICON, whilst similar to the APERGE in regards to snowfall location, it's far less keen on the wintry aspect and brings largely rain

So, looks like another nowcast situation with each high-res model offering a slightly different outcome. Personally EA more likely to see snow than the SE just because they're further North and closer to the coldest air. It'll be a radar watching morning/afternoon for sure.

 

[exodus]

I could be in the sweet spot based on that... I'll keep you posted tomorrow. Trying to work out time of arrival.

[E17boy]

Hi guys just heard the BBC weather and they were saying Tuesday could well bring a covering of snow to many places, they are still not sure on the exact developments but there is potential. 

Also it was mentioned at the end of the forcast that possible easterly later next week with high pressure building over Scandinavia . This was a small possibility though, 

we are going to be in one of the most nail biting and tense model watching coming up regarding the anticipated SSW. 

Will it or won't it ........ the search for my winter ❄️ business partner continues, 

night night ????

[lassie23]

up and down temps over the next week, when will the proper stuff arrive that will stick around

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

up and down temps over the next week, when will the proper stuff arrive that will stick around

Isn't it obvious, lass? According to the Alternative Lunar Theory, AKA altweather, it's all due to kick-off sometime in 2021...Unfortunately (and it's very remiss of me) I do not recall the precise date or time-of-day...

[snowray]

2 hours ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

At least their Chief Meteorologist likes snow

https://mobile.twitter.com/snow73?lang=en

Are they a German company, they are rabbiting on about the Berlin wall and talking in german?

 

Quite a bit of snow on the HIRLAM 18z, now that would really cheer us all up!

 

[SMU]

I have documented in the MOD thread this winter that the HIRLAM has been the best high res model...

[snowray]

Yes I would agree, have found the HIRLAM very good this winter. Well we shall see what happens. 

[ICE COLD]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I have documented in the MOD thread this winter that the HIRLAM has been the best high res model...

Well I hope that's bang on I'm right under the green blob ??