North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[northwestsnow]

Euro4 18z altho poor again for lying snow does show uppers of -8/-9 friday in our region.

Fingers crossed..

[severe snowstorm]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Euro4 18z altho poor again for lying snow does show uppers of -8/-9 friday in our region.

Fingers crossed..

Metoffice going for a covering of snow in places later tonight and more snow showers Sunday and Monday. Below is latest text forecast:

Tonight:

Rain will gradually clear away with a sharp dip in temperatures to follow, giving a risk of ice. Blustery snow showers push in later, with a covering in places. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

Friday:

Friday will see a mixture of sunshine and hail, sleet and snow showers push in through the day. It will feel cold across the region. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Turning wet and windy on Saturday with some hill snow. Sunshine and blustery snow showers returning on Sunday. A few snow showers still on Monday, but plenty of bright spells.

[Cheshire Freeze]

39 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Metoffice going for a covering of snow in places later tonight and more snow showers Sunday and Monday. Below is latest text forecast:

Tonight:

Rain will gradually clear away with a sharp dip in temperatures to follow, giving a risk of ice. Blustery snow showers push in later, with a covering in places. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

Friday:

Friday will see a mixture of sunshine and hail, sleet and snow showers push in through the day. It will feel cold across the region. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Turning wet and windy on Saturday with some hill snow. Sunshine and blustery snow showers returning on Sunday. A few snow showers still on Monday, but plenty of bright spells.

Quite an upgrade on the 0z GFS

Though snow only really accumulating over the high ground

[Chris.R]

Wow 513 dam and -9 850s here for Sunday night!

[Chris.R]

Liverpool TAF showing snow showers from 03:00 tonight. 

[severe snowstorm]

Manchester Airport TAF also showing snow showers from 03:00 through to 12:00.

[Chris.R]

Just now, Dexter said:

Manchester Airport TAF also showing snow showers from 03:00 through to 12:00.

 Yeah. Liverpool only goes out to 6:00 atm. 

[Darren Bown]

Morning. Metoffice now have a spell of snow for tomorrow morning here from about 4am for a few hours. Looks like it could be quite heavy too. Shame it’ll have rained all night so it probably won’t stick (a bit like that Sunday in January)

[Day 10]

Just woke up, I like the sound of what's been written on this page this morning! Looking forward to checking the MODS later!!! Was keeping an eye on Fri, sounds like it's upgraded. 

[severe snowstorm]

14 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Morning. Metoffice now have a spell of snow for tomorrow morning here from about 4am for a few hours. Looks like it could be quite heavy too. Shame it’ll have rained all night so it probably won’t stick (a bit like that Sunday in January)

How wet the ground is will have little impact on whether snow settles if the temps are conducive. It is a common misconception. I've seen puddles turn to snow in the past.

[northwestsnow]

Wonder if we will see some warnings this morning?

2-5 cm on higher ground sounds possible looking at the data

Chris, whats the irish sea temps a the moment? Sorry to be a pain mate but i'm convinced the irish sea has not been our friend this winter so i would be interested if the sea temps have dropped in the last few weeks, and i believe its important to us in the north west..

[Day 10]

Quick one before work.

Looks like an area of snow to move through tomorrow morning.

Then Sunday looks like a day of sunshine and heavy snow showers for all.

Have a good day

[severe snowstorm]

Thanks for the charts Day 10. That looks mighty impressive for tomorrow morning!

[pip22]

Still showing some front edge snow on Saturday Morning.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.61;-3.83;7&l=rain-3h&t=20180210/09

[severe snowstorm]

Looks like flow will be more NW rather than WNW tomorrow? This is good as it brings more of the region into the game I guess.

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Looks like flow will be more NW rather than WNW tomorrow? This is good as it brings more of the region into the game I guess.

It will be WNW acc to meto app..

sunday the same..

Edited February 8, 2018 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

euro4  has uppers of -8/-9/ touching -10 tomorrow for our region.

dews go sub zero by 6am tomorrow.

Just got to hope the irish sea produces some beefy showers and we SHOULD be looking good..

 

Edited February 8, 2018 by northwestsnow

[frosty ground]

A pretty wintry forecast by the Met Office for my location, remove today and saturday afternoon and it wouldn't be far off a winter wonderland.

 

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

A pretty wintry forecast by the Met Office for my location, remove today and saturday afternoon and it wouldn't be far off a winter wonderland.

 

I would be very suprised if you dont see a good couple of cm tomorrow - you can see by the chart posted above dews go sub zero by 6am amnogst some pretty hefty precip,with uppers of -7 by 6am and only dropping thereafter with 300m your laughing imho.

Sunday looks very similar to me..

ps with winds forecast to be wnw thats a good wind direction too..

its just tick, tick, tick for your boxes FG

I might do OK too with some luck..

And sure enough app has sleet turning to heavy snow by 5/6am in your back yard tomorrow ..

Edited February 8, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Chris.R]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Wonder if we will see some warnings this morning?

2-5 cm on higher ground sounds possible looking at the data

Chris, whats the irish sea temps a the moment? Sorry to be a pain mate but i'm convinced the irish sea has not been our friend this winter so i would be interested if the sea temps have dropped in the last few weeks, and i believe its important to us in the north west..

 They have been steady at 44°F, dropped to 43°F yesterday but back up to 44°F now.  The average is 45.3°F. The last time we had 850s this cold back in December the sst was at 48°F. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 They have been steady at 44°F, dropped to 43°F yesterday but back up to 44°F now.  The average is 45.3°F. The last time we had 850s this cold back in December the sst was at 48°F. 

cheers chris, a good 2 and half degrees colder.

I think thats quite important personally..

Others may disagree of course..

[Chris.R]

 The flow tomorrow will be WSW initially veering NW by 06:00; then NNW for a short time before backing NW again after 09:00. Remember judging  the flow from apps will only give you the surface wind which is not always the same as the steering flow. Coldest 500 mbar temperature is at 07:00 so this will be when the heaviest precipitation occurs. Looks like a trough to me. 

[itsnowjoke]

Raining here

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, itsnowjoke said:

Raining here

Post that in the mad thread...go on, I dare you. 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 The flow tomorrow will be WSW initially veering NW by 06:00; then NNW for a short time before backing NW again after 09:00. Remember judging  the flow from apps will only give you the surface wind which is not always the same as the steering flow. Coldest 500 mbar temperature is at 07:00 so this will be when the heaviest precipitation occurs. Looks like a trough to me. 

Yes the heaviest precip will be 6am to 8am - uppers and dew look good to me chris, dews -1/uppers -7..could be touch and go low ground but high ground its quids in, or at least it should be..