Model output discussion - mid January

[weirpig]

It's amazing for me how each time the Atlantic tries to make inroads the mild sector is squeezed  and very cold uppers again descend on the U.K. 

[on the coast]

Still at 180 and it is just unreal. From 96 onwards has been cold getting colder. Just Wow.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

At 174 and yet another pulse of cold from the east/north east.  This is never ending!!!

 

Yes please  I’m losing my composure from this run... need to take a step away from the screen. I did not see it topping ECM this is truly impressive noteworthy cold spell establishing on GFS 18z.

[Methuselah]

This is just what the doctor ordered: a never-ending train of slow-moving 'blobs' from the North Sea...First Blob-Watch in five years!

[tight isobar]

True sibierian flow..

And this is impactual for the lock in...prolongment..

We gain entry to some eye watering air and flow in such set up!!!!

[supernova]

Eastern block says no to advancing Atlantic. UK battleground. GFS has downed its Stella, ordered a chaser, won on the slot machine and is planning a reload. 

Edited January 31, 2018 by supernova

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

At 174 and yet another pulse of cold from the east/north east.  This is never ending!!!

 

And to top that up with all ready covered snow over the uk,we have another trough disrupt from 180+

oh! my!

Edited January 31, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[A.J]

5 hours ago, bobbydog said:

eh paul?

you can't see anything noteworthy in low res??

whats this? -

its not candy floss!...

it might as well be at that time frame BD!......when those sort of ppn charts show at T72, then I'll be interested....until then, tits-on-fish....lol

[chionomaniac]

Getting close to 100 hours of continuous -10ºC 850 hPa temps over East Anglia from T+99 lol. That's quite a few Ice days!

[The Beast From The East]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So let’s talk parameters

Theta E 6c. Check

 

850 Thicknesses - 1260-70 incoming check

850 Temps -12 / -13c   check

 

Convective snow Window from 96 to 126 from the east = 30 hours.... 

ideal location - Suffolk / Mid Kent / East Kent - Then eyes to the NW..

s

U mentioned kent... I like the sound of that.. ☺

BBC weather at 2155 say cold from now and colder all next week with snow possible anywhere. Could you just confirm that the cold showing coming from the east is whats showing still as the main player only they say Northwestly all next week with the Azores high drifting closer to the uk? Thanks Steve.

[ITSY]

I think that is the best high res I have ever seen. Continuous -10 - -13 uppers for the E or SE from within +96. Snowshowers, streamers, and frontal events all possible from multiple directions. Meantime, turn attention to strat behaviour in low res to see how the second half of Feb could pan out. Amazing charts in the trop and strat at the moment....

[Purga]

GFS 18z giving almost 100 hours with sub -10C 850 hPa uppers over some part of the UK after t +

+96hrs

------->

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, TheBeastFromTheEAST said:

U mentioned kent... I like the sound of that.. ☺

BBC weather at 2155 say cold from now and colder all next week with snow possible anywhere. Could you just confirm that the cold showing coming from the east is whats showing still as the main player only they say Northwestly all next week with the Azores high drifting closer to the uk? Thanks Steve.

N24 stands for 24 hours behind the game. Just saying! 

[Ice Day]

13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Yes please  I’m losing my composure from this run... need to take a step away from the screen. I did not see it topping ECM this is truly impressive noteworthy cold spell establishing on GFS 18z.

Indeed.  I've just had a 'time out' to make a cuppa, take some deep breaths and try to calm down a little.  Back to the run....

Edited January 31, 2018 by Ice Day

[Daniel*]

This would be the country if this materialised:

 

 

[snowray]

Yup, and more snow with the re-load

Very cold with countrywide settled snow, apart from..........., oh no a little hole in the SE......HERE!

[ICE COLD]

Still going at t210 on the 18 z . Bloody marvellous 

[DOdo]

Quite extraordinary to say the least. I am pinching myself at the moment. I cannot believe what I am seeing. I have gone over some of the charts of December/ January  2009/2010 and November/December 2010 There are no outputs like this.

Edited January 31, 2018 by DOdo

[blizzard81]

Does anyone have a link to the 96 and 120 fax updates? Meteociel on go slow again. 

[snowbob]

No one mentioned a cobra run yet !!

so can only get better on 0z

???

Edited January 31, 2018 by snowbob

[Allseasons-Si]

BOOM number errr!

rince and repeat of west v east.

[snowice]

9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Out to 186 ish & prepare for the Atlantic to finally make an appearance 

sadly it’s only sliding south from the west so snow for any zone where there’s PPN- the rest frozen solid by then if the 18z lands

Your ramping now

[weather_it_will]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

And to top that up with all ready covered snow over the uk,we have another trough disrupt from 180+

oh! my!

Snow maybe over some eastern and western parts, but this is all marginal for most of us, especially the Midlands and Central areas until we get to T198.

 

[SMU]

8 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Getting close to 100 hours of continuous -10ºC 850 hPa temps over East Anglia from T+99 lol. That's quite a few Ice days!

See SE THREAD

[Freezing-Point]

1 minute ago, DOdo said:

Quite extraordinary to say the least. I am pinching myself at the moment. I cannot believe what I am seeing. I have gone over some of the charts of December/ January  2009/2010 and November/December 2010 There are no outputs like this.

Cold pool was not deep enough then.  It was marginal at times on the N. Sea coast.  Nothing marginal about what would come from those charts.