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Model output discussion - mid January

Paul

By Paul
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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Proper cold across the country at 168hrs.  If the upgrades keep coming things could get very interesting!

gfsnh-1-168.png?18 gfsnh-0-168.png?18

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Proper cold across the country at 168hrs.  If the upgrades keep coming things could get very interesting!

gfsnh-1-168.png?18 gfsnh-0-168.png?18

Yes ID

quiet happy with the output tonight:)

15 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Some exeptional output today.

And tommorow will be analysis/cross point day i feel.

Cold banging the drum into the uk.

, no matter-your preference of direction.

And certainly looks like snow maybe widspread into feb!?..

Sleep tight....

do i have to dream of tight isobars:rofl:

from the east i will:D

Edited by Allseasons-si
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

I'm very confused tonight.

Are not all models pointing to mild south westerly in a weeks time?

I don't see any Easterly barring a 24/48 hour continental flow.....

It is a very weird set up at 7 days out as most of the ops show the dastardly azores sticking it's nose into the uk again. However, the uppers are still very cold. 

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Bottled Snow Enthusiast

Bottled Snow

Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
Posted
13 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Top marks to UKMO it has not dropped the ball and seems to be the pied piper! 

Yes looks like UKMO has this nailed. Unfortunately though it looks like the strong PV to northwest and azores high to southwest are just too strong to allow any more upgrades with regards to an Easterly flow. Will give it until tomorrow but looks like we will have to be patient again and wait for another bout of amplification further in to Feb for a proper cold shot. However still likely to be some wintriness at times in the interim mainly to more northern areas as cold air from Greenland makes inroads occasionally. 

Would love to be proven wrong but hard to see even the best case UKMO synoptics bring the block to northeast in to play for us at this point.

BS

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

That Arctic high has been absolutely useless these last few winters. It blows up, flatters to deceive and then just sits there. Very much like it's Siberian cousin. Very shy beasts they are these days. Shame the azores isn't quite so shy! 

Edited by blizzard81
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bottled Snow said:

Yes looks like UKMO has this nailed. Unfortunately though it looks like the strong PV to northwest and azores high to southwest are just too strong to allow any more upgrades with regards to an Easterly flow. Will give it until tomorrow but looks like we will have to be patient again and wait for another bout of amplification further in to Feb for a proper cold shot. However still likely to be some wintriness at times in the interim mainly to more northern areas as cold air from Greenland makes inroads occasionally. 

Would love to be proven wrong but hard to see even the best case UKMO synoptics bring the block to northeast in to play for us at this point.

BS

You really shouldn’t sign off each post with BS, you’re doing yourself an injustice :rofl:

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It is a very weird set up at 7 days out as most of the ops show the dastardly azores sticking it's nose into the uk again. However, the uppers are still very cold. 

The Azores isn’t always a bad thing to be nearby can reinforce heights to ne when they subside as long as heights are relatively low in med. Many easterlies have started that way, by our typical winter foe. 

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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted

Well out to 240 on the gfs. And it's cold. And to be honest at this point it's what's happened most of this winter. Winds from a north westerly  direction with quite cold uppers from that direction. Not great for all of the uk. But for those who have seen snow from this direction before this winter. It's looking ok. Of course  until we get total clarity of  what's going to happen up to 144  then this post is rather pointless . As you were 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

The Azores isn’t always a bad thing to be nearby can reinforce heights to ne when they subside as long as heights are relatively low in med. Many easterlies have started that way, by our typical winter foe. 

I may be wrong but it isn't doing us any favours nudging in at day 7 in this instance. It needs to be sucked north west. 

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Consecutively GFS modelling northerly blast in FI with a nice euro trough so much to happen so not really worth paying any attention to, but perhaps something to set eyes on if things don’t work out.

EDBE3D67-F85B-405A-99AB-4190B612A49B.thumb.png.f7413ac2525a356060363cda5b8b266b.png5562BA8B-AD64-439E-83BE-87DE4FF3E8D2.thumb.png.ebaab02e6ef113db31085a476e73998f.png

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I may be wrong but it isn't doing us any favours nudging in at day 7 in this instance. It needs to be sucked north west. 

True but at a shorter frameframe its beneficiary it does it throws up WAA to north east and reinforces block.

37B2908B-6DC1-4587-9992-B826023D4BA7.thumb.png.025dd0028d8ecef485d580d7661ac6ac.png

Edited by Daniel*
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes another one of those outrageous splits in the upper strat.

You mean the one's that never verify? 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, Daniel* said:

True but at a shorter frameframe its beneficiary it throws up WAA to north east and reinforces block.

37B2908B-6DC1-4587-9992-B826023D4BA7.thumb.png.025dd0028d8ecef485d580d7661ac6ac.png

Absolutely, I agree with you there. 

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted
4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Anyone got the updated fax charts please? Meteociel is on strike again. 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

T+120 like the UKMO raw. Cold coming in from NE behind low sinking over Holland.

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Tomorrow’s runs will be Absolutely Crucial....

seriously though it’s just cold from all angles

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes another one of those outrageous splits in the upper strat.

Toasty,just like the 00z

gfsnh-10-360.png?18

it keeps on showing:D

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Reversal down to 5-7mb (ish) not quite to 10mb from what I can make out but theres a monster high covering the whole of the Northern lattitudes and pole at 1mb.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Toasty,just like the 00z

gfsnh-10-360.png?18

it keeps on showing:D

If we could get to the point at the end of the run, we would almost certainly be looking at a potent end to this winter.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

I will take one of these please.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018013018&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2018013018&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=384

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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I'm very confused tonight.

Are not all models pointing to mild south westerly in a weeks time?

I don't see any Easterly barring a 24/48 hour continental flow.....

Mild south westerlies ??

GFS 6 Feb  -10c 850s over south East

Netweather GFS Image

GFS 18z 9 Feb -10c north east                   GFS 18z    12 f -10c half the country

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

Edited by stewfox
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Bottled Snow Enthusiast

Bottled Snow

Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
Posted
18 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

You really shouldn’t sign off each post with BS, you’re doing yourself an injustice :rofl:

??never thought of that lol. And there was I thinking I made loads of sense ?

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