Model output discussion - mid January

[shaky]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Remember though you don’t see europe

you might think that but it’s almost the same as ECM

updated IKON 6z to 84 a lot closer to the JMA

 

Steve updated 06z gfs has stronger heights across scandi by 5mb!!disruption sharper north to south across uk aswell!!keep going gfs!!

[frosty ground]

The Easterly  

The improvement in the models by allowing deeper and colder air from the east to wraft over the UK ahead of any Atlantic fronts is a good sign, with deep cold also coming from the North west (which has been predicted foo some time) this happens to improve the snow chances for larger areas of the country. 

The block is being more resilient than originally forecast but the moisture is coming from the north  west with more cold to back up the easterly incursion

[SMU]

7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

That’s true, and I am hopeful, but we’ve been down this road many times only for all models to back away nearer the time. I agree things look more in our favour this time though. I guess it’s a matter of watch and wait now.

Possibly - I think though that 144-168 period is cycle 2 of the cold - some maybe missing cycle 1 from the east-

GFS our to 66 elongating the heights more & aligning better-

Cold pool ever increasing from the NE

note the curvature of the warmer air held back-

 

Edited January 31, 2018 by Steve Murr

[SMU]

Sat Rain turning to snow ...

[shaky]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Sat Rain turning to snow ...

Bare in mind steve ecm has it furthet west so expect corrections west and also all snow event whoever gets it!!

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Bare in mind steve ecm has it furthet west so expect corrections west and also all snow event whoever gets it!!

Yep - Ire / Wales & the NW / Western Scotty looks best-

GFS 96 - Now making the Scandi cold much deeper with better CAA & -16s at the core-

Expecting -10c to London on this run ( at least -8c)

Edited January 31, 2018 by Steve Murr

[frosty ground]

12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep - Ire / Wales & the NW / Western Scotty looks best-

GFS 96 - Now making the Scandi cold much deeper with better CAA & -16s at the core-

Expecting -10c to London on this run ( at least -8c)

I think you made the right call.....

[Neilsouth]

The BBC Weather Ahead has said that the High Pressure to our north east doesn't look to be the player and the Azores High will win out, winds from our North West

[SMU]

Cheers

fine adjustments from the GFS is now seeing the Atlantic bringing some sort of snow event down SE in cycle 2 - all snow from the NW for England - the same as 2012-

[tight isobar]

Check the balance/flow we are getting into the semi-reliable and minor exactions are improving..

Cold spilling in and sliver of heights backing north east @scandi...a day of upgrades look likely!!

Edit; AZHP behaveing itself and being sent to southern point greenland..

All the ingredients are forming..

 g

Edited January 31, 2018 by tight isobar

[steveinsussex]

6 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

The BBC Weather Ahead has said that the High Pressure to our north east doesn't look to be the player and the Azores High will win out, winds from our North West

Old data?

[frosty ground]

My favorite kind of mild sector..... <-5

[SMU]

Awesome chart- UK wide snow front -

[Neilsouth]

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Old data?

Perhaps yeh, it was only yesterdays and going on recent data at the time..

[festivalking]

That is a work of art and possibly the chart of the season......in my humble opinion!

[terryall]

Steve,

every time you charge your phone the charts upgrade. 

[tight isobar]

Starts to want to lock cold in...

Heights tightening @scandi...and jet slamed against block!!!

buckled jet profile

Edited January 31, 2018 by tight isobar

[Jemma Croton]

My first post here. I’ve lurked and followed here for 3 years or so and find these threads absolutely fascinating. So a quick thank you to everyone that contributes to the many discussions I follow and learn from. 

The battleground Britain charts are incredible to watch develop. Here’s holding to further upgrades today.

[snowfish1]

1 hour ago, winterof79 said:

Excuse me for my negativity this morning I must be in denial.....I am off for therapy immediately.

I am still not telling any family though.

I've got several names of psychotherapists

[andymusic]

GFS and ECM is a thing to behold for Feb - but as I type it's actually just turned to snow here already

[mb018538]

Exciting stuff! If things pan out as shown, then at some point through next Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday a band of heavy snow is going to track across the UK! None of this marginal stuff, it WILL be cold enough for snow at low levels!



Let's just hope this goes along these lines...could be epic!

[ukpaul]

4 minutes ago, andymusic said:

GFS and ECM is a thing to behold for Feb - but as I type it's actually just turned to snow here already

The slow moving front the middle of next week looks very interesting, the sort of setup which would deliver constant snow, not just dribs and drabs.

(plus we are getting a heavy hail/snow mix in showers at the moment!)

[tight isobar]

It really is all out attack of cold via output!!..

We cannot seem to escape cold evolutionary...via all availible routes!!!

[ITSY]

about +228 the strat is shaping up for a split - this is the real golden ticket...

Check this out:  

Edited January 31, 2018 by ITSY

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, ITSY said:

about +228 the strat is shaping up for a split - this is the real golden ticket...

 

9 minutes ago, ITSY said:

about +228 the strat is shaping up for a split - this is the real golden ticket...

A very dark day indeed for mild fan club..

Yes 10hpa views are a thing of note !!!!!

Not forgetting what faces us long b4 this possible scenario....

Quite something.

 

!!!!!!

Edited January 31, 2018 by tight isobar