Model output discussion - mid January

[Weathizard]

144 UKMO, not going to lie I was expecting better... bit messy

[That ECM]

IF correct that's a heavy band of beautiful winteryness moving down the country. But I'm liking the ukmo!!!

[Daniel*]

Just now, frosty ground said:

wasn't expecting that

Me either looks a bit suspect to me and progressive, still very cold with a snow risk there. 

[tight isobar]

Gfs then offers up-this...wonderful snap..and deep cold infer..

This is begining to look like a spell..

Not a snap....febuary onslaught...

[frosty ground]

Not so far apart the GFS and UKM

[Methuselah]

The me is quite liking this:

[Weathizard]

I suppose the thing about the 144 UKMO chart is there is unusually cold uppers coming down from the NW, obviously we can't see the 850's at 144 but going by the other models there's some serious cold coming down from that direction.

The evolution from 120-144 seems suspect but entirely plausible given it's been strong in the ENS suites.

[nick sussex]

Some very unusual synoptics on offer and the UKMO although messy still looks cold at T144hrs.

The uncertainty is what type of phasing if any occurs between low heights near Scandi and the upstream troughing at T144hrs.

If phasing doesn't occur then a shortwave is likely to head se and even if it does, its somewhat of a stalemate between the Azores high and low heights over southern Europe

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I suppose the thing about the 144 UKMO chart is there is unusually cold uppers coming down from the NW, obviously we can't see the 850's at 144 but going by the other models there's some serious cold coming down from that direction.

The evolution from 120-144 seems suspect but entirely plausible given it's been strong in the ENS suites.

Won’t need to wait long for the ukmo 144 uppers.

[Paul_1978]

7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs then offers up-this...wonderful snap..and deep cold infer..

This is begining to look like a spell..

Not a snap....febuary onslaught...

Serious question - am I missing something obvious? Looks like we're back in westerlies/WNW by T+171?

Edited January 31, 2018 by Paul_1978

[Optimus Prime]

Whaaat!? To me it just looks like a repeat of what we've had so far this winter; cold but not especially so, then the potential for more normal temperatures.

Perhaps some people need to turn the colour depths down on their monitor screens. Nothing seriously cold and perfectly normal for winter.

[SMU]

Excellent UKMO - no uppers at 120 but expectation is -10c 

Snow flurries from the east the snow from the North with a reload @168 !!

similar to the ECM

[SMU]

UKMO 120 uppers

 

then 144 is -9 on -9 great for snow

[Methuselah]

With uppers, ahead of any warm front, widely between -7 and -9C, this 'ought' to be better for front-edge snow than last Sunday's effort?

 

 

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Excellent UKMO - no uppers at 120 but expectation is -10c 

Snow flurries from the east the snow from the North with a reload @168 !!

similar to the ECM

Indeed Steve - a slice of -10 uppers across central England.

[karlos1983]

Nothing marginal about this chart

Edited January 31, 2018 by karlos1983

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Whaaat!? To me it just looks like a repeat of what we've had so far this winter; cold but not especially so, then the potential for more normal temperatures.

Perhaps some people need to turn the colour depths down on their monitor screens. Nothing seriously cold and perfectly normal for winter.

UKMO and GFS offer coldest weather of the winter so a bit bemused by your post despite the conflicting approaches something from the east has been absent. It’s not exceptional cold but it is proper cold. Big uncertainty even at T96/120 until then is firmed up one can’t say whether we will see a return to average temperatures, could well go on longer than what we think.

Edited January 31, 2018 by Daniel*

[frosty ground]

That's one cold North Westerly.....

[tight isobar]

9 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Serious question - am I missing something obvious? Looks like we're back in westerlies/WNW by T+171?

Serious answer- yes gfs has a westerly modeled catch- however the jet and stat have differential meets..and cold is already embeded..

Its a real unusual format tbf..

But could cause chaos in predict..and snowfall on the ground..in a nutshell.

Thers a challenge at 10 hpa with a split looking immenent..and the factors of nw-vs-east-ne..

Are eye watering..but great 4 ourselves!!

All sorts of chaos suddenly flagging..

To which we could do v-well..

Edited January 31, 2018 by tight isobar

[Optimus Prime]

Just now, Daniel* said:

UKMO and GFS offer coldest weather of the winter so a bit bemused by your post despite the conflicting approaches. It’s not exceptional cold but it is proper cold. Big uncertainty even at T96/120 until then is firmed up one can’t say whether we will see a return to average temperatures, could well go on longer than what we think.

I can't understand why you would be bemused. I honestly get quite confused by all the unrestrained ramping that goes on.

What I'm seeing is something better than what we have seen in the last few years but compared to the longer term average, fairly normal winter weather; that is cold spells with the risk of wintry weather.

[Daniel*]

Just now, Optimus Prime said:

I can't understand why you would be bemused. I honestly get quite confused by all the unrestrained ramping that goes on.

What I'm seeing is something better than what we have seen in the last few years but compared to the longer term average, fairly normal winter weather; that is cold spells with the risk of wintry weather.

In your own words you said it looks like a repeat of what we have had this winter? While it frankly doesn’t. 

[Methuselah]

Time for the Scottish snow monsoon?

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

Warmer air coming in on GFS at 192 hours so any snow that does accumulate on Tuesday/Wednesday will wash away

There will be no snow before then. Remember we need uppers of around the point that mercury freezes for any wintryness . 

[Optimus Prime]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

In your own words you said it looks like a repeat of what we have had this winter? While it frankly doesn’t. 

And... what did we get in December? It was generally quite wintry but a very mild spell towards the end meant temperatures averaged near normal. What about some of the synoptics in November?

Short memory? It was only a few months ago....

Edited January 31, 2018 by Optimus Prime

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

I can't understand why you would be bemused. I honestly get quite confused by all the unrestrained ramping that goes on.

What I'm seeing is something better than what we have seen in the last few years but compared to the longer term average, fairly normal winter weather; that is cold spells with the risk of wintry weather.

Read the iso-charts my friend..

Its far from bog standard!!