South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Well no surprise the morning runs have downgraded a bit which normally happens for some reason but expecting that to change again by the time we get to 18s. Always find 12z more reliable.

Yeah was always going to be tricky to better yesterday’s runs lol. But the theme really is still the same, so that’s all that matters. Will no doubt be inter run variants of that theme now for a few days whilst the models play around with the direction of travel of the high pressure. So a good start to the day in my book 

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, khodds said:

You couldn’t make it up.. all models showing an easterly of some sort and still sniping and gfuqhgfpjhing commences in the MAD thread. From what I can tell there’s been no downgrade.. just different variations in the output.

Theres just no pleasing some people! 

Exactly!!! I’ve not even looked in there yet, I had a feeling people would shout downgrade lol I’ll look after 11 when it’s been tidied up 

Edited February 17, 2018 by karlos1983

[Leon1]

So we haven't started today with a complete disappointment, that's good as we haven't had that in a while

[Zephyr]

12 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Well no surprise the morning runs have downgraded a bit which normally happens for some reason but expecting that to change again by the time we get to 18s. Always find 12z more reliable.

I have always been more inclined to follow the 12z's over all other runs not sure why just find them the best run of the day but maybe its because its at a more convenient time, and its easier to compare to the day before 12's  

[karlos1983]

Just now, Zephyr said:

I have always been more inclined to follow the 12z's over all other runs not sure why just find them the best run of the day but maybe its because its at a more convenient time, and its easier to compare to the day before 12's  

That takes willpower....... lol in theory a good idea but I’d be kidding myself saying I’d only look once a day!    

[DanDorsetUK]

The actual gfs official manual states... Look at a couple days of 00Z and 12Z runs for consistency. Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available

[Zephyr]

12 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

The actual gfs official manual states... Look at a couple days of 00Z and 12Z runs for consistency. Avoid the 06Z and 18Z runs when 00 or 12 is available

It's a good way to go about things for sure I never compared 06z or 18z doesn't stop me from having a peek at them though I really should stop following every run during winter just for my mental state. 

[karlos1983]

Has anyone noticed it’s Saturday and....... ITS NOT RAINING!!!! Hallelujah!!

[Nights King]

12 hours ago, khodds said:

I’m extremely excited. Had a great end to the week, the models had better not dampen my mood this weekend or else. 

@Nights King is a jammy git - gone away from skiing this week, may well be able to ski here this time next week ?

My god I'm so hungover. 5am finish in Bulgarian club but first thing I do is check this forum 

 

[khodds]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

My god I'm so hungover. 5am finish in Bulgarian club but first thing I do is check this forum 

 

That’s dedication for you!! Hope you are having a good time. You get back for when the fun begins over here.

Hair of the dog..??!!

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

That’s dedication for you!! Hope you are having a good time. You get back for when the fun begins over here.

Hair of the dog..??!!

One day left to ski. Just doing half day though lol. Stupidly warm here but snow is OK ish on mountain. I lost my friend to some 49 year old cougar last night so made some Bulgarian friends. Damn they can drink and I'm suffering. 

Seen some light snow on second day which was unusual to say least. 

[Nights King]

Some quality health and safety for you all... 

VID-20180216-WA0000.mp4

 

[Andy Bown]

40 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Has anyone noticed it’s Saturday and....... ITS NOT RAINING!!!! Hallelujah!!

Yes, glorious misty/frosty and now sunny start. However I can see cloud to the West and showers on the radar!

[khodds]

11 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Some quality health and safety for you all... 

VID-20180216-WA0000.mp4

 

Haha! Not up to British standards ??

[Nights King]

2 minutes ago, khodds said:

Haha! Not up to British standards ??

Yes no doors on lift cracks me up everytime I get in 

Now you all know what I look like 

[snowdog]

52 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Has anyone noticed it’s Saturday and....... ITS NOT RAINING!!!! Hallelujah!!

Shhhhh... don't tempt fate ! But yes it's so nice to see the sun again and no wind either.

[snowysouth]

I gazed at the mad thread as I often do but this morning, geez! I wouldn't want to be a mod on there. It's the OT posts, then those criticising the OT posts with OT posts and then those defending their OT posts with more OT posts. ?

Anyway, BBC are saying there will be an easterly flow next week. Providing that isn't dry, I believe it will be the best chance for us snow starved south coast. In the past, battle ground scenarios leave us on the warm sector with rare wet slush if we are lucky. A bitter easterly with channel low, yes please! That's my order ? 

[karlos1983]

If these quite unbelievable easterlies come to fruition being shown, I fear for the NHS as we may see actuall snow falling and fainting may become wisepread. Not to mention injury by sledging, due to novice type driving ability! 

[Leon1]

the met office have given me a night of -3c next friday, coldest in bath for a long time!

[Zephyr]

If these 06 charts make landfall in over a week I fear for the server in which this forum is based.

[Leon1]

jeez imagine that...

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

jeez imagine that...

Ah the microclimate 

[Leon1]

considering that london is in that purple area somewhere, this might actually go down in history, if it comes off...

Edited February 17, 2018 by Leon1

[fromey]

35 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If these quite unbelievable easterlies come to fruition being shown, I fear for the NHS as we may see actuall snow falling and fainting may become wisepread. Not to mention injury by sledging, due to novice type driving ability! 

I work in the NHS and I believe although not confirmed they are currently keeping a close eye on things, it has been bought up in planning meetings for next week and beyond

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, fromey said:

I work in the NHS and I believe although not confirmed they are currently keeping a close eye on things, it has been bought up in planning meetings for next week and beyond

Yeah my wife works for 111, perhaps I’ll tell her to book a week off... actually that’s against possible cold spell protocol, better not lol