South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[festivalking]

Cold start here -0.4c. Wasn't expecting a frost or the helicopter circling above the house from 5am this morning.

[DanDorsetUK]

Another big climb down in the models why is it every morning run seems to downgrade and then slowly upgrade as the day goes on. Very odd. I think maybe Meto have maybe jumped the gun in calling this colder weather doesn't look on looking at this morning runs somethings wrong somewhere.

Edited February 16, 2018 by Rapodo

[knocker]

Clear crispy morning with temp 3C and a southerly zephyr

[DanDorsetUK]

WOW what an ECM wtf is going on!!

[Zephyr]

2 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

WOW what an ECM wtf is going on!!

Really is confusing to say the lest, don't think I've witnessed such an up and down roller coaster, granted winter on these forums normally are but this is quite the ride. Better than Alton Towers.

 

 

[DanDorsetUK]

1 minute ago, Zephyr said:

Really is confusing to say the lest, don't think I've witnessed such an up and down roller coaster, granted winter on these forums normally are but this is quite the ride. Better than Alton Towers.

 

 

Just wondering if there was a data issue in the other models given the late arrival of the ecm with there being a data problem. Maybe the other models didn't have all the data and left to run. Very odd indeed.

[karlos1983]

It’s funny, I watched the Models in this order this morning GFS,UKMO,ECM. When I got to the ECM I knew it would still have the easterly. Do not expect it to be there later!!! 10 more days I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

Edited February 16, 2018 by karlos1983

[khodds]

 this is how I feel right now. Everyone praising the ECM. But who’s to say that it’s the ECM alone that has lost the data and the other models have the whole set..?  

[Zephyr]

[karlos1983]

16 minutes ago, khodds said:

 this is how I feel right now. Everyone praising the ECM. But who’s to say that it’s the ECM alone that has lost the data and the other models have the whole set..?  

ECM has lead us down the easterly garden path on more than one occasion over the years, I’m not believing it! I have a little bit of optimism because the JMA and Aperge kind of agree. But I’ll eat my own hat socks and gloves if the other 2 (UKMO/GFS) revert this evening.

lovely frost this morning! Garden looks lovely! Low of -1.4c overnight!

Edited February 16, 2018 by karlos1983

[Frosty hollows]

Morning all. -2c at 6am. Now warming up nicely. Birds are singing,etc,etc. Let it be said that my guts are more reliable than the model threads at the moment.

[festivalking]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM has lead us down the easterly garden path on more than one occasion over the years, I’m not believing it! I have a little bit of optimism because the JMA and Aperge kind of agree. But I’ll eat my own hat socks and gloves if the other 2 (UKMO/GFS) revert this evening.

lovely frost this morning! Garden looks lovely! Low of -1.4c overnight!

Would sir like ketchup or brown sauce with that  

[Leon1]

Is it possible that the scandi high is formed before the models actually know what's going to happen, or will it help the models forecast as they will know how far north the block gets or whatever?

[DanDorsetUK]

Not sure it's relivent but why Meto app wind direction is swinging ese from ene on thursday next week. Maybe a good indication Meto expect pressure to go north not south. Clearly with the models all over the place you need to go by the fax charts at times like this hence Meto are still keen to say the cold is coming. We're see interesting watch at such close range.

 

Also only showing a daytime max of 4oc clearly showing height rises to north east not a dropping high or uk high.

Edited February 16, 2018 by Rapodo

[karlos1983]

59 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Would sir like ketchup or brown sauce with that  

Hopefully humble pie ? 

[Mapantz]

One thing's for sure.. next week looks like a cloud-fest! I'm not looking forward to that.

[Leon1]

hallelujah!  finally a forecast showing snow, still 2 weeks away though,  surprisingly its the new bbc app?!  

[matt111]

So after catching up in the MAD thread we still haven’t got a clue what’s going on. 

Another sunny start to the day here. 

[Frosty hollows]

Already 8c here. Could be warmest day of the year so far. Though knowing our summers could be warmest day of the year 

[Mapantz]

22 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Already 8c here. Could be warmest day of the year so far. Though knowing our summers could be warmest day of the year 

You must have managed over  8°C before then, surely? I had 13.2°C on the 2nd January. 

Here's my maximums thus far:

Currently 11°C

[ThundersnowDays]

Nice sunny day and 8.C here. There was a frost this morning with a low of  -1

Edited February 16, 2018 by ThundersnowDays

[matt111]

Still nice and sunny and it feels pleasant. 8.9°C here. 

[karlos1983]

I went for a run through Upton country park and along hols bay, it felt like spring! What a day!!!

Boootiful

9.9c

Edited February 16, 2018 by karlos1983

[karlos1983]

Stop the Press

[jtay]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Stop the Press

If you fancy a real giggle, check the 14 dayer.

Winds switch to the North-East next Tuesday and don't switch back until the 1st!