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Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

I struggle to believe that this is even possible given the facts we know right now. Not ruling out the uk escaping cold, but the main PV lobe looks far to strong and not in a logical location to me.

B2CA159B-E1E9-4D91-A05C-ABC5484491A6.thumb.png.11da6022ca5862ba40ea5765d78c3a9a.png

Lets see where it sits in the ens later.

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted (edited)

Time to put  the champagne on ice can't get excited at FI being 192hrs  away.We have been here before. The crumb of comfort is the ssw is tomorrow so maybe the ecm is just late to the party. Tommorow will be a bigger day in the output :)

Edited by snowice
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Good grief! What happened to the ECM at T240 hrs!

I hope this isn’t another strat warming at the wrong time forcing the PV to go into crazy mode.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

People concerned about the output for some 10 days time when a hideously complicated event is going on. Really? The models are useless a week ahead at the best of times.

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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

I wouldn't worry. The ECM is taking a different route.

It's like taking the M6 Toll  or the M6. Both will get you up north eventually except the M6 will meet heavier traffic. Well tonight, Matthew, the ECM is the original M6

 

Either that or @Tamara 's ramp has jinxed it lol.

Edited by chionomaniac
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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

Nick, it doesn`t make much sense as that is the bulk of the PV that gets seriously attacked with the projected warming. This makes my comment last night about the models not really knowing what to output until it actually happens.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Could this be the second warming causing the PV to go into super defensive angry mode!

I’m not sure the ECM is even on the M6 it looks more like it’s on a village tour taking in all the back roads !

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Lots of cold solutions from the GEFS 12z at T+240 onwards so plenty of support for the Gfs 12z op...really hope the Gfs is leading the way this evening!:cold::)

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Lots of cold solutions from the GEFS 12z at T+240 onwards so plenty of support for the Gfs 12z op...really hope the Gfs is leading the way this evening!:cold::)

If the GFS is right I’ll buy a new pillow and sleep with it forever 

C5154775-98AD-4B48-AA6D-02ED2F514EAE.thumb.jpeg.41d86cc94cac25457bed63c0a372bc66.jpeg3A1F1265-3BC9-4E3A-8604-1529AE34907B.thumb.jpeg.cb3acfa807b219cd5477a9dbbd6814e6.jpeg

 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Well I’m stunned !

The ECM is surely the love child of Satan!

Its not just it didn’t want to know but said no with extra lashings of misery with the PV looking like it’s been pigging out at McDonald’s for the last week.

The blob returns !

I seriously hope it’s gone AWOL this evening .

Edited by nick sussex
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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If the GFS is right I’ll buy a new pillow and sleep with it forever 

C5154775-98AD-4B48-AA6D-02ED2F514EAE.thumb.jpeg.41d86cc94cac25457bed63c0a372bc66.jpeg3A1F1265-3BC9-4E3A-8604-1529AE34907B.thumb.jpeg.cb3acfa807b219cd5477a9dbbd6814e6.jpeg

 

Karlos, it only means Go to Friggin Sleep...

Edit: If that chart came off then my model of choice in the future would actually be that. If it steps backwards towards the ECM solution then the 4 day UKMO it is.

Edited by Stuie W
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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

My theory that ECM overreacts to strong thermal gradients gives me reason not to worry much about the ECM 12z - it’s actually only a bit less deep of a trough away from setting up an easterly about as soon as GFS, albeit with less of a trough to the S to provide snow chances initially.

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sawan Explorer

sawan

Posted
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow or Heat
  • Location: Coventry, 102m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Well I’m stunned !

The ECM is surely the love child of Satan!

Its not just it didn’t want to know but said no with extra lashings of misery with the PV looking like it’s been pigging out at McDonald’s for the last week.

The blob returns !

I seriously hope it’s gone AWOL this evening .

I am surprised that the GFS has picked the signal up so early, usually the models struggle at this stage with all sorts of scenarios. From previous experience, the milder solution is always spot on for this unfortunate island, and ECM is the one this time. 

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted
17 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I wouldn't worry. The ECM is taking a different route.

It's like taking the M6 Toll  or the M6. Both will get you up north eventually except the M6 will meet heavier traffic. Well tonight, Matthew, the ECM is the original M6

 

Either that or @Tamara 's ramp has jinxed it lol.

I think it's just a bad run and I don't see any path to get to cold from the ECM. Weird because ECM introduced the Atlantic ridge into Scandinavian path now as soon as the GFS picks it up ECM bins it. Worrying that it's 2 runs in a row now though. Will trust the models more after Sunday though.

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mother nature rocks Aficionado

mother nature rocks

Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich
Posted

Is it me or was the ECM better before it’s upgrage a year or two ago. Really seems to have lost the plot ( hopefully not correct)

That run definitely belongs in the black bin cause we don’t want that recycled ?

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

I think it's just a bad run and I don't see any path to get to cold from the ECM. Weird because ECM introduced the Atlantic ridge into Scandinavian path now as soon as the GFS picks it up ECM bins it. Worrying that it's 2 runs in a row now though. Will trust the models more after Sunday though.

I won't even trust them then, Shannon was very much evident the last proper ssw from around day three for weeks. And this one is stronger.

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Ecm was first model to show Easterly then gfs picks it up and ecm drops the idea.Utterly clueless all the models after 5 days,pointless them going past that time frame.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Hopefully just an Ecm wobble today from the 00z / 12z...There is plenty of support for a very cold extended outlook from the Gfs / Gefs today..hopefully we will get cross model support soon and with the MO on-board with GloSea5, Mogreps etc..I still have a very good feeling that this winter still has the best cold / snow ahead of us during late Feb / early to mid March!:):cold:

Edited by Frosty.
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Two gfs runs before the next ecm run. Dismiss it if you choose but there's not a coldie who isn't concerned. I do agree with idea that it maybe the slower route. 48 hrs ukmo will be in view for important time and detail. 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
1 hour ago, chionomaniac said:

Comes in, has a little look at the 12Z GFS and has a little chuckle to himself.

giphy.thumb.gif.0594cbedf1030bb88ebbc077d8c68aa4.gif

 

You, Big Murr, Catacol and BA (Bluearmy) :).

 

BFTP

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
7 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

Oh please god let this verify. I deserve a decent amount of snow in the south west

Give us a call if you need the driveway clearing ??

 

BFTP

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Stuie Experienced

Stuie

Posted
  • Location: West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: West Dorset
Posted

On a side note, we certainly don`t want this to modify South/verify next week, yet again a really nasty LP system that would be named.

ECH1-120.GIF

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