North west regional discussion

[The Northern Ramper]

I'm going to have to stop reading the misery thread and actually view the models.

The imby slanted opinions contradict what they actually show for us.

Does thy nut in!! ????

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Been looking at archive weather charts, and memories of 26/27 Jan 96 keep coming to mind. Synoptics on offer Tuesday/Wed almost a carbon copy. What did we see - much of the region had heavy snow from a feature that tracked from east to west over the Pennines, we had 5 inches, I think Manchester did well as well.

This time we will have stronger convection and a deeper cold pool.

Its rare to say expect all precipitation to be of snow, but on this occasion its justified, Parameters are perfect. No marginality whatsoever, this is going to be an impressive spell for the time of year, indeed I think it would have been just as cold had it occured earlier in the winter, in some respects this is optimum time for extreme depth of cold, given how SST values are at there lowest.

Next weekend could bring some significant long lasting heavy snowfall. 

I keep saying December 1996 for a good Manchester easterly snow event but I may be getting confused with Jan 1996.. 

[The Northern Ramper]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I keep saying December 1996 for a good Manchester easterly snow event but I may be getting confused with Jan 1996.. 

I remember some great xmas snow mid 90's, on more than one occasion.

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Alexis said:

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

FAX charts show the system moving east to west, even exiting Ireland. Looks great for a lot of the country

It is moving west/southwest and the heavier precipitation is where the warm and cold front meet which is slightly south of our region. If you see the 60 hour chart this point is in south Wales.

A slight adjustment west can bring it to our region but we need to see this happen pronto in the models as it is less that 48 hours away.

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

It is moving west/southwest and the heavier precipitation is where the warm and cold front meet which is slightly south of our region. If you see the 60 hour chart this point is in south Wales.

A slight adjustment west can bring it to our region but we need to see this happen pronto in the models as it is less that 48 hours away.

It may miss us completely but I still think we have a strong chance of picking up convective features Tuesday night - Thursday.

Models will all be useless at picking up these showers at this range.

[damianslaw]

Possibly both. Dec 96 produced a similiar synoptic set up, convective easterly, snow showers driven easily over the Pennines. 1996 was a good year for snow and cold, only beaten by 2010 since, with a cold winter in 95/96 and a cold Nov and Dec.

[karyo]

Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

It may miss us completely but I still think we have a strong chance of picking up convective features Tuesday night - Thursday.

Models will all be useless at picking up these showers at this range.

Agreed. We jest need the easterly to have a long sea track for those features to form. By Thursday we see the isobars coming from Benelux which is a short sea track. That's why I think Wednesday is the best day for the convective easterly as this currently stand.

 

[Chris.R]

 If you’re thinking of looking in the mod thread don’t bother as it’s pretty bad atm. 

[cfallon]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

MET app for moorside oldham has upgraded to heavy snow tues morning with a 80/90 % chance 

Lets hope things continue to upgrade for everyone over the coming days..

Can’t see this pal? I hope it is ?

[cfallon]

7 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 If you’re thinking of looking in the mod thread don’t bother as it’s pretty bad atm. 

What’s wrong with them now? ?

[damianslaw]

Agree, I will be sticking to the regionals over the coming days, flicking between the NW and N/NE Eng threads, as many will be doing. The model thread will probably be full of doommongers focused on the breakdown of the cold. Also it will be a nowcast situation, making the model thread rather redundant in some respects, regionals come into there own in these situations.

Looking forward to the next few days, could be record breaking numbers of users especially during the working week - the peak probably Wednesday. 

6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 If you’re thinking of looking in the mod thread don’t bother as it’s pretty bad atm. 

 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, cfallon said:

What’s wrong with them now? ?

The cold wont last forever 

[frosty ground]

23 minutes ago, karyo said:

It is moving west/southwest and the heavier precipitation is where the warm and cold front meet which is slightly south of our region. If you see the 60 hour chart this point is in south Wales.

A slight adjustment west can bring it to our region but we need to see this happen pronto in the models as it is less that 48 hours away.

The track won't be known untill it happens..... I wouldn't be excited if it was down to hit us now so im not bpthered that its missing us either

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, cfallon said:

Can’t see this pal? I hope it is ?

its changed again.

TBH they change like, all the time.

[northwestsnow]

euro 4 has snow showers reaching our region monday morning  6am.

Bizarrely tho it has rain across yorkshire 6 hours later.

That has to be  glitch how they heck can it be rain with -dews and low uppers from the east?

[Chris.R]

15 minutes ago, cfallon said:

What’s wrong with them now? ?

  You know the sort of thing; general toy throwing, quite big toys at the moment. 

[The Northern Ramper]

Basically the thread is tainted with a southern bias and crying about warm uppers and breakdown whilst the majority of the uk is still below freezing

[cfallon]

Well I will take a week of exciting cold weather with good chance of snow over our usual muck! unfortunately some folk just want and want!  

[karyo]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

euro 4 has snow showers reaching our region monday morning  6am.

Bizarrely tho it has rain across yorkshire 6 hours later.

That has to be  glitch how they heck can it be rain with -dews and low uppers from the east?

I wouldn't worry about rain anywhere.

[captaincroc]

The thing is, we are at a point where we need THE perfect synoptic for everyone to get a pasting of snow at once. So one man's loss is normally anothers gain. That's why I will be browsing the MO with a pinch of salt and mainly staying in here. 

I totally get the IMBYism, as let's be honest, we would love the low to reach us but if it did then the south are virtually guaranteed to be in the milder air.

I still feel we will all get a covering at some point. Kev's video of that snow shower showed that one beefy shower can drop a covering, let's hope for many more of those.

Edited February 25, 2018 by captaincroc

[captaincroc]

Just seen this on TWO...well the screenshot... Looking good for Wednesday.

 

[Winter Hill]

Just took the dog for a walk up to Rivington pike.. felt bitter in the wind up there. God knows how it's  going to feel as the week goes on.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Winter Hill

[dodge]

5 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Just took the dog for a walk up to Rivington pike.. felt bitter in the wind up there. God knows how it's  going to feel as the week goes on.

Try it again on Wednesday.. you might need to look like this..

Good to see the BBC showing those showers spreading far out west, but still as with the nature of showers, they could fail to flatter or bring a pleasant surprise to one of two places.

[captaincroc]

 

That area of snow is looking bigger and in a better position to hit us! Looks a lot heavier too than on other models.

[dodge]

So overnight and into Tuesday morning looks to be our best best for something more organised.