Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Loving the consistency of the ICON

-8 uppers hitting southern areas and likely snow showers will pushing in! 

Indeed karlos the icon-barreling in those 850's..

And continues to models heights to decent degree.  

Far to many downbeat-via the inevitable-models swings...the overall theme remains ....for a direct hit of polar continental incursion!!!!

Edited February 17, 2018 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

Eps spreads reveal a bit more about where we are - fwiw, the clusters say the op is too flat to the north and too far south with the cold pool.  So more likely to see things correct north on subsequent runs

. Any cold push is south of the uk with the ridge across us

Note the low heights Iceland, ridge still uk and growing cold pool to our east

 The low heights to our east becoming marked, our ridge edging north

 

 The cold pool on our doorstep, but the upper ridge to our south looks like it could  become a pain and prevent the Atlantic getting into Europe far enough to the south to advect that cold pool far enough west re the uk. 

a quicker arrival of the cold pool as per gem and icon would be so much better than gfs and ecm as the circa day 10 option could just fall short 

This is of course based on the current suite - however, there are (and have been)  enough hints on the geps that support the way forward being a bit tricky. we must also take into account that further downwelling could be making things difficult in general for the nwp. 

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by bluearmy

[tight isobar]

Think the gfs is the lag-mod atm..

However-we seem to be gaining .

Get that atlantic system digging south east...and the race northwards of heights at scandi are on.

The the door opens easier for the incoming flow(east)

Edited February 17, 2018 by tight isobar

[Banbury]

Apologies for being behind the times but how long has the Icon been about and who’s model is it?

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Apologies for being behind the times but how long has the Icon been about and who’s model is it?

Upgraded GME is my understanding 

[tight isobar]

At last looks as though gfs getting the idea!?

A slight push and wrap into scandinavia- and we tap firmly into those eye candy uppers...

Better run coming here 

Edit; gfs is hell bent on finding any/every obstacle- to bring in the notable cold!!!

Pain in the ar#e atm!!!!

Edited February 17, 2018 by tight isobar

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Upgraded GME is my understanding 

High quality German engineering!

[blizzard81]

I think the models will now start to reach some form of consensus this weekend. I see the northern arm comes into play at short notice yet again on the ecm morning suite. A theme of this winter unfortunately. This scuppers the dream synoptics of yesterday's 12z. I personally don't think we are going to get those brutal cold uppers to our shores. It will be close but another near miss imo. To be honest though, although this winter has been colder and given many frosts up here, it has also been wet. Therefore I am just looking forward to some nice prolonged dry weather. This is what I expect to see with a predominantly dry cold south easterly airflow setting up. Mainland Europe will go into the freezer though. 

[SLEETY]

But ecm didn’t even want to know about an Easterly and was showing mild sw winds two days ago,I’m not writing of the chance of an extreme cold spell because of the ECM,anyway JH says you should each run at the same time frame so compare yesterday’s 12 to  today’s 12 etc..

[Banbury]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I think the models will now start to reach some form of consensus this weekend. I see the northern arm comes into play at short notice yet again on the ecm morning suite. A theme of this winter unfortunately. This scuppers the dream synoptics of yesterday's 12z. I personally don't think we are going to get those brutal cold uppers to our shores. It will be close but another near miss imo. To be honest though, although this winter has been colder and given many frosts up here, it has also been wet. Therefore I am just looking forward to some nice prolonged dry weather. This is what I expect to see with a predominantly dry cold south easterly airflow setting up. Mainland Europe will go into the freezer though. 

Just to throw against this dry cold SEly thingy , last nights isobar chart on the Beeb showed Easterly winds then SEly winds highlighting how they can change the distribution of snow 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

But ecm didn’t even want to know about an Easterly and was showing mild sw winds two days ago,I’m not writing of the chance of an extreme cold spell because of the ECM,anyway JH says you should each run at the same time frame so compare yesterday’s 12 to  today’s 12 etc..

I will agree with you on one thing. The ecm including it's ens has been very volatile for the last week. 

[Polar Maritime]

A cold Easterly flow continues to show by next Wednesday/Thursday from the GFS 6z.

[NorthYorksWeather]

Good consistency between the GFS 00z and 06z at 162hr, with only minor differences rather than previous huge swings at that timeframe.

Shortwave just east of Poland should help advect that colder air westwards towards the UK, the cold uppers arrived at 216hrs on the 00z so lets hope the 06z can speed that up a bit.

 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

I will agree with you on one thing. The ecm including it's ens has been very volatile for the last week. 

Have you checked the archives on the ens ? 

And yes, the ec op was continually with the Atlantic cluster but it jumped faster than the other main models and once it jumped it stayed jumped. 

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Just to throw against this dry cold SEly thingy , last nights isobar chart on the Beeb showed Easterly winds then SEly winds highlighting how they can change the distribution of snow 

Indeed. We need an easterly flow coming from the north sea as opposed to a south easterly coming straight from mainland Europe if snow is your thing. Not saying you can't get snow from the south easterly but much less chance and obviously tends to be a much drier air source. 

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Have you checked the archives on the ens ? 

And yes, the ec op was continually with the Atlantic cluster but it jumped faster than the other main models and once it jumped it stayed jumped. 

Lol BA, do you have shares in ecm?  I still think the ecm hasn't exactly covered itself in glory this week. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by blizzard81

[MattStoke]

GFS 6z is a bit quicker to get the cold westward.

[blizzard81]

I would love to know what mogreps is showing this morning. 

[Banbury]

Shaping up very well 

[tight isobar]

180.

And gfs starts the tap in...

Westward-migrate should now begin850s)..and preety clean looking to.

6z gfs

[bluearmy]

Just now, MattStoke said:

GFS 6z is a bit quicker to get the cold westward.

Slower with the shortwave way to the east which held the coldest uppers and the flow in general. The cold pool less rounded as a consequence. 

[SLEETY]

Incoming freeze up comingbelow -20 hpa approaching 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Lol BA, do you have shares in ecm?

Ha - I know you all think I lurve the model too much but given the facts pre day 7 this winter (and for god knows how long before) it’s the best guidance we have access to. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Incoming! Stunning chart from the GFS, hopefully not disappeared on the 12z.

[bobbydog]

well now....

some consistency in the 7 day range from the GFS....

00z

06z

are we beginning to see the true picture forming?

i hope so because there'll be some very happy snow fans if we are....