Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Snowy L]

Better at t144, lows in the Atlantic more neutrally tilted, though still looks close.

[Panayiotis]

3 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

 

Confused.com

One post (the above) is comparing 12z ECM to other 12z models, the other post is comparing the 12z ECM to the run before (00z ECM)

Edited February 17, 2018 by Panayiotis

[Daniel*]

Just now, frosty ground said:

 

Hmmmmm

I think considerably worse is overdoing it a lot maybe it will take more time, much less of a saggy bottom which intervened the very cold air progression west the path looks clearer here.

[ICE COLD]

168 is good . Taking the longer route ?

Edited February 17, 2018 by ICE COLD

[The Eagle]

It's a small improvement on the 00z at 168 hrs but overall not that much of substance has changed. Still a journey to travel for the cold 850s.

 

 

[Daniel*]

This looks very good a fair more amplified heights further north them beastly cold uppers inbound?

[kold weather]

Good run so far on the 12z. If I was picky I'd want the upper high to be tilted slightly less N-S than it is, but that is being picky. Lets see where 192hrs takes us, we are going to be cold, but how cold?

[Catacol]

11 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Yes. I have been sitting back and watching it unfold tbh. The trop response is as I would expect from this type of SSW. Still a lottery as to whether we get that deep cold that we crave, but considering the years that I have put into monitoring the strat I love seeing these types of synoptics following the SSW.

Chio - is the lottery not looking increasingly stacked in favour of cold? I’m trying to work out what could go wrong.... HP remains too far south, Atlantic fires back up... angle of block advects the cold more south than west - all possible I suppose, but the specifics of the strat forecast as we have it, and parallel conditions within GSDM assessment (not working directly against cold developments) means I’m finding the “fail” scenarios less and less likely. 

What odds do you place on the block NOT getting far enough north? This seems the greatest risk to positive results at the moment...

Edited February 17, 2018 by Catacol

[ICE COLD]

192 ecm even better ??

[SLEETY]

Here it come again ,Siberian express is approaching 

[Daniel*]

ECM is great folks it sets the stage earlier on for this.. fairly confident beast is coming!

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Chio - is the lottery not looking increasingly stacked in favour of cold? I’m trying to work out what could go wrong.... HP remains too far south, Atlantic fires back up... angle of block adverts the cold more south than west - all possible I suppose, but the specifics of the strat forecast as we have it, and parallel conditions within GSDM assessment (not working directly against cold developments) means I’m finding the “fail” scenarios less and less likely. 

What odds do you place on the block NOT getting far enough north? This seems the greatest risk to positive results at the moment...

Yes  I agree. I would be extremely disappointed if we didn't get a notable cold spell following this SSW......but not counting chickens just yet. It's one thing forecasting this type of pattern weeks ago - it's another seeing it deliver!

[WalsallWeather123]

Building blocks in place at T192 for a proper easterly flow.  26th Feb a date to put in the diary. Any cold snap before that will be a bonus but the 26th is when the fun and games will begin

Edited February 17, 2018 by WalsallWeather123

[kold weather]

Very impressive looking at 192hrs, the cold air hasn't got great westward advection but the set-up is great aloft, and the colder 850hpa temps will get there come 240hrs I'm pretty sure.

Chino, lets hope for a great cold spell, given the set-up aloft, if we miss out on a period less than 3C below average, it will have been a let-down for sure IMO, that is how good things are.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM is great folks it sets the stage earlier on for this.. fairly confident beast is coming!

If I was being picky I’d wish it was a few days earlier so we could enjoy a snow filled weekend. 

Edited February 17, 2018 by Ali1977

[cyclonic happiness]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Yes  I agree. I would be extremely disappointed if we didn't get a notable cold spell following this SSW......but not counting chickens just yet. It's one thing forecasting this type of pattern weeks ago - it's another seeing it deliver!

this is hilarity. so are the models not up to scratch, or is the weather more unpredictable than ever?  i personally think it's flips every day atm, tomorrow we'll be back in Narnia

[Banbury]

This is still ok 

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

This is still ok 

That’s a huge understatement do you not see what is coming??

[Troubleatmill]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Yes  I agree. I would be extremely disappointed if we didn't get a notable cold spell following this SSW......but not counting chickens just yet. It's one thing forecasting this type of pattern weeks ago - it's another seeing it deliver!

Total respect to you strat experts for whats coming up. Its up to the weather now. If it doesnt happen then so be it but that wont make you guys wrong, how does the saying go? You can lead a horse to water.....?? 

[SLEETY]

And here we go again

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by SLEETY

[ICE COLD]

And we're in 

[Banbury]

As per the Met really 

[Daniel*]

Unprecedented cold on the way for this time of year... BOOOM!

[AWD]

This ECM 12z Det run sits reasonably well with the Meto medium range forecast.

I think this run will be well supported in the 12z Eps later.

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

this is hilarity. so are the models not up to scratch, or is the weather more unpredictable than ever?  i personally think it's flips every day atm, tomorrow we'll be back in Narnia

?Don't quite see what you find hilarious here?

The predictions were for some kind of Scandi block followed by this block moving west in line with how the SSW progressed. Those synoptics are not guaranteed to give us deep cold but are far more likely than most.