April 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

[Roger J Smith]

April CET statistics including all values 1981 to 2017

__ the recent 37 values are shown in three groups (13,12,12) colour coded (red is warmest, green medium, blue coolest)

__ the 1981-2010 mean is in light green and the 1988-2017 mean is in orange

19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)
16.3 ... warmest daily mean 1-15 April (15th, 1945)

11.8 ... warmest April (2011)
11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)
10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)
10.5 ... 4th warmest April (1943)

10.4 ... 5th warmest April (1798)

10.3 ... 6th warmest Aprils (tied 1893, 1987)

10.2 ... 2014 (tied 8th with 1794, 1796, 1944)

10.1 ... 12th warmest Aprils (1783, 1869, 1945)

10.0 ... 15th warmest Aprils (seven tied, including 2009)

 9.6 ... 2003

 9.5 ... 1993

 9.4 ... 1999, 2004

 9.3 ... 2002

 9.1 ... 1995
 9.0 ... average for 2001-2017, 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?) and 1997, 2015 

 8.9 ... average for 1991-2017 (this feature tracks the evolving 1991-2020 normal) ... 2005, 2017

 8.8 ... 2010
 8.7 ... average for 1988-2017 and average for 1986-2015 and 1992

 8.6 ... 1982, 2006
 8.5 ... average for 1981-2010 and 1996
 8.3 ... 1985

 8.2 ... 1988

 8.1 ... average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000) ... 1984, 1994
 8.0 ... average for 19th century 1801-1900 ... 1990

 7.9 ... average for all data 1659-2017 (7.94), also 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800 ... 1991, 2008

 7.8 ... 1981, 2000  

 7.7 ... 1998, 2001 

 7.5 ... 2013, 2016 
 7.3 ... average for 1659-1700

 7.2 ... 2012
 

 6.8 ... 1983

 6.6 ... 1989

 5.8 ... 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest of past half century)
 5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799
 5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809
 4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

--0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)
--0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799)

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Enter your forecast for APRIL 2018 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of Saturday 31st March in other words) or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry.

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Optional EWP contest for April 2018

The data set in use for the contest (UK Met Office) runs from 1910 to present but there's a parallel (Hadley) with data from 1766.

Contest asks for a prediction of April precip in mm. These are the record and average values:

141.0 __ 2012 __ wettest 1766 to 2017 (Hadley gives 149.9)

132.6 __ 2000 __ 2nd wettest (Hadley gives 142.6)

 61.6 __ average 1981-2010

 60.1 __ average 1988-2017

 12.6 __ 2007 __ Hadley shows 10.4, so in that series, driest 1981-2017

 10.4 __ 1984 __ driest in 1981-2017 period (Hadley gives 10.8)

 07.0 __ 1938 __ driest in both data sets (Hadley gives 7.1)

According to the Hadley data set, six Aprils were drier than 2007 .. 1938, 1817, 1912, 1957, 1893 and 1785.

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Enter this contest by the same deadline, 10.0 points for closest forecast, 0.2 penalty points per day late (first three days of April).

Grace period 00-03h each day (no additional late penalty applies before 0300h) to 0300h 4th, absolute cutoff time.

You can add your EWP forecast to your CET temperature forecast. 

Good luck !! 

 

 

Edited March 20, 2018 by Roger J Smith

[Radiating Dendrite]

8.9c and 56mm.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8.1C, mostly N and E winds, vile month

[LetItSnow]

8.0°C and 72mm. Starting cold but getting more springlike as the month goes on.

[Summer Sun]

8.3c for me please

[Methuselah]

A month to forget I feel: 9C and 125mm.

[Weather-history]

We not had a very cold or even just a decently chilly April for a long time. Believe it or not, the first April that was at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average since that average came into existence wasn't until 2012! Even that was still less than 1.0C below the 1961-90 average.

In other words, we still yet to record an April that was at least 1.0C below the 1961-90 average since that average came into existence.

Edited March 20, 2018 by Weather-history

[Weather-history]

10 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

We not had a very cold or even just a decently chilly April for a long time. Believe it or not, the first April that was at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average since that average came into existence wasn't until 2012! Even that was still less than 1.0C below the 1961-90 average.

In other words, we still yet to record an April that was at least 1.0C below the 1961-90 average since that average came into existence.

The years when these months first returned a month that was at least 1.0C below their 1961-90 averages.

January: 1997

February: 1991

March: 1996

April: 

May: 1996

June: 1991

July: 

August: 1993

September: 1993

October: 1992

November: 1993

December: 1992

Edited March 20, 2018 by Weather-history

[Stationary Front]

Ok let’s make 2018 complete April 6.8 please with 44mm

[Bobd29]

8.0C for me and 97mm please

[Lettucing Gutted]

14C    Last sub 5C April in 1837.  Last sub 6C April in 1986.  Last sub 7C April in 1989.  Last sub 7.5C April in 2012.

200mm of Atlantic garbage!

Edited March 20, 2018 by Lettucing Gutted

[Weather26]

10.1C and 48mm please-Surely the warmth for this year has to start sometime!

Edited March 20, 2018 by Weather26

[Polar Gael]

8.2C and 80mm for me please. 

[SteveB]

7.7c & 95mm please.

[Coldie24]

A chilly 6.4c and 85mm for me please.

Edited March 21, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[LetItSnow]

Would it be possible to change my guess? My final guess is 6.7 and 100mm.

[JeffC]

6.9C and 62 mm please

[NorthYorksWeather]

8.4c, 28mm

[Stargazer]

7.9C and 61mm please.

[Optimus Prime]

9.6°c 

[pegg24]

9.1 c 78 mm please.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

9.2C and 70.5mm, please.

[Daniel*]

7.4C and 105mm ta.

[DR(S)NO]

8.5c and 77mm thank you please 

[Dancerwithwings]

8.3c cheers