Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[northwestsnow]

Yet again too much energy in the darn Atlantic..

I just can't understand the sheer volume of these lows TBH, there is no strong ENSO, no raging PV, zonal winds are dropping away, yet they just seemingly never end..

Anyone have any theories as to why they keep coming?

Edited December 26, 2018 by northwestsnow

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It is definitely crapper now though i have to admit.

No end in sight to this horrid mild weather! On NYD the flow is coming from the Canaries.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yet again too much energy in the darn Atlantic..

I just can't understand the sheer volume of these lows TBH, there is no strong ENSO, no raging PV, zonal winds are dropping away, yet they just seemingly never end..

Anyone have any theories as to why they keep coming?

January in the UK post 2000, not scientific of course

[karyo]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yet again too much energy in the darn Atlantic..

I just can't understand the sheer volume of these lows TBH, there is no strong ENSO, no raging PV, zonal winds are dropping away, yet they just seemingly never end..

Anyone have any theories as to why they keep coming?

SSTs and the developing westerly QBO?

[SLEETY]

warm sea anamolies off the canadian atlantic ocean i think helping fuel the low pressure systems as the bitter air  of the canadian continent hits the warmer than normal seas .Ecm is junk if your looking for cold weather

Edited December 26, 2018 by SLEETY

[Duane S.]

Meh. Only hope this run is the East Canadian ridge separating the energy and putting us into a cold zonal flow.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

warm sea anamolies off the canadian atlantic ocean i think helping fuel the low pressure systems as the bitter air  of the canadian continent hits the warmer than normal seas 

But hasn't it always been that way? I honestly don't know.. EC looks to be buiding a strong PV over the Pole, i suppose on refection Exeter have signposted an unsettled spell early Jan so perhpps this run fits into their outlook

[northwestsnow]

Against all the odds 216 looks loaded with potential lol..

[Methuselah]

Just to add that, at T+384, the Para is potentially loaded with some potential potential!

[swfc]

240 has zero potential .flat has a city fan today I'm afraid!!!

Edited December 26, 2018 by swfc

[IDO]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

doesn’t it  always want to flatten the ridge,don’t think any cold spells would develop if you just relied on gfs ,until a cold spell is about 3 days ahead.Tiresome model to look at.

I do not know what you are expecting?

The trop shows no propensity for UK cold and that is consistent and cross-model.

The long wave pattern is resolute with minor differences in the mesoscale for the UK, even with the Pacific wave variance cross-model, and that is suggesting getting HLB in our region as low confidence.

If you are to knock GFS then you need to moan at the GEM and ECM, none of which offer cold.

The UKMO looks like the GFS at D6 with the HP likely to oscillate the wedge in the flow east, pushing the cold away! That is a "toppler" on all models going out further than D6.

We are simply in a stagnant pattern where the PV and waves cancel each other out offering mediocrity for our sector.

There is no obvious sign of a QTR so the current pattern is de facto till we get a reboot.

TBH if we were not hanging on an SSW, this Winter would be rather lame, it's above my pay grade but there must be interference causing such low key winter cold output? Out to Jan 11 on the GFS and that oxymoron; "potential cold" is all too evident!

Thankfully a flip is inevitable...

 

[SLEETY]

Zzzz is the best way to describe ecm,but remember it’s mid month the cold weather is expected so another week before it shows in the models

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Zzzz is the best way to describe ecm,but remember it’s mid month the cold weather is expected so another week before it shows in the models

Day 10 is poor, i think Feb is correct, we are in the long game here, as Exeter have signposted..

Edited December 26, 2018 by northwestsnow

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

No New Year cheer from this GFS chart of horror for UK. Lets hope UKMO (168t extended ) and ECM lifts the mood in the hunt of cold for you guys ?

C

ECM at day10 going same way as the horrid same GFS chart. Must rank as one of the least interesting starts to a winter season ever. Still no snowflakes for many. Now we await to see if UKMO extended follows with the big two.

C

[karlos1983]

ECM is fine by me, look east! Cold! ? that's where we want out source come mid Jan, don’t forget the bigger picture!

patience! 

[bluearmy]

Interesting to see ecm not manage to push the trough across us, despite looking like it should .... that ridging seems persistent but it could leave us in ‘no mans land’ for a while 

[cheeky_monkey]

10 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Zzzz is the best way to describe ecm,but remember it’s mid month the cold weather is expected so another week before it shows in the models

that's what everyone was saying last week and the week before...expect cold weather to start to show up around the new year in the models ..then it was should start showing around 7th January ..now its mid month..how long before people are hanging their hats on Feb?

[Banbury]

Naff all at the minute 

I look East every winter ………..means northing if we don't get the right set up.

Patience is very much the buzz word at the moment .

[Seasonality]

Quite perverse how the UK remains stuck in its own little mild pool. 

[Seasonality]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM is fine by me, look east! Cold! ? that's where we want out source come mid Jan, don’t forget the bigger picture!

patience! 

The issue is getting the cold from Warsaw to Walsall or Moscow to Manchester... 

[snowfish1]

We should have a swear box..... For every time anyone uses the word potential.  The pot would be overflowing 

[karlos1983]

Well I must have missed all the talk of a major SSW then

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Well I must have missed all the talk of a major SSW then

Means absolutely nothing , talk all day long about a SSW , ABC or whatever you want but it doesn't guarantee snow or cold.

The biggest indicator anyone on any weather forum can use is the Met outlook , as it stands there isn't anything concrete from the Met

[mulzy]

7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Naff all at the minute 

I look East every winter ………..means northing if we don't get the right set up.

Patience is very much the buzz word at the moment .

Don’t forget potential too!

Patience and potential may sum up winter 18/19!

Anyway, the NWP is largely dreadful.  Jan 15th remains the date though.

[MR EXTREMES]

21 minutes ago, IDO said:

I do not know what you are expecting?

The trop shows no propensity for UK cold and that is consistent and cross-model.

The long wave pattern is resolute with minor differences in the mesoscale for the UK, even with the Pacific wave variance cross-model, and that is suggesting getting HLB in our region as low confidence.

If you are to knock GFS then you need to moan at the GEM and ECM, none of which offer cold.

The UKMO looks like the GFS at D6 with the HP likely to oscillate the wedge in the flow east, pushing the cold away! That is a "toppler" on all models going out further than D6.

We are simply in a stagnant pattern where the PV and waves cancel each other out offering mediocrity for our sector.

There is no obvious sign of a QTR so the current pattern is de facto till we get a reboot.

TBH if we were not hanging on an SSW, this Winter would be rather lame, it's above my pay grade but there must be interference causing such low key winter cold output? Out to Jan 11 on the GFS and that oxymoron; "potential cold" is all too evident!

Thankfully a flip is inevitable...

 

Yeah good call must say it's awful both north America and most of Europe including the med are in for some very extreme winter weather.

Haha and sods law says no sorry not this time.

It's just not going to happen as there's far to much energy going over the top of the stagnant ridge like you said.

Maybe February might bring hope but I noticed the next surge of heights is even more south than the current ridge which says mostly zonal perhaps northern areas will do ok.

But no northerly no easterly just straight direct westerly then balmy southwesterly flow.

No fear of a below average CET this month judging how long zonal episodes can last.

Reversal split Equals bad luck this time for the uk.

Bit of a wake up call I think.

Back to the drawing board.