Cold hunt - models and chat

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is that following the 00z blue..

And the 06z’s. ...clearly that system is trending further south .. as I posted, the frontal wave could still keep some of s england in that particular game but concerning that we may end up relying on a trough to satisfy expectations .....

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

And the 06z’s. ...clearly that system is trending further south .. as I posted, the frontal wave could still keep some of s england in that particular game but concerning that we may end up relying on a trough to satisfy expectations .....

Thanks for your reply-

[Frosty.]

This is the current longer term trend from the GEFS 6z mean..given the background signals and the opinion of the experts..it's most likely a load of old cobblers!

[Scandinavian High.]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The Meto update promises more of the same out to end week 2 ......a ‘low’ chance of the easterly by the end week 2 and then the higher chance thereafter ..... not sure how you expect to see that showing on output which only goes to 16 days and is, in any case,  unlikely to pick up on the reversal wave which is clearly dicatating the tone of the 30 dayer 

The weather makes us all look stupid at times they can flip when we are not expecting and move very quickly it has happened could happen again.

[kold weather]

17 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC 06z (yes that’ s not It a typo) taking the low through Brest south-east track). PPN to the north, but not much

I've finally buckled and got a sub, very interesting to see the 06z ECM though for sure!

Looks to me broadly like the other models. About 1-2 inches on the frontal system which also fits quite well with the METO warning.

[kold weather]

13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

And the 06z’s. ...clearly that system is trending further south .. as I posted, the frontal wave could still keep some of s england in that particular game but concerning that we may end up relying on a trough to satisfy expectations .....

Yeah hard to ignore that trend, though I think we will only gain real confidence from the 12z suite which should have formation put into the data as well.

I think the likely evolution will lead to 3-5cms and broadly just about every model I've seen today has that sort of figures. Only a tiny minority have the front not forming and that set-up is starting to get very well forecasted now.

 

[alexisj9]

25 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

EC 06z (yes that’ s not It a typo) taking the low through Brest south-east track). PPN to the north, but not much

Have they always had a 6z?

[alexisj9]

26 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That's a lot earlier than people think, I wonder if we'll see changes to reflect this in the out put soon.

[tight isobar]

The responce in here...is as-the situ..OVER-RESPONSIVE..

Spring is not in the air...4 the forseeable..

Its a classic wave pattern responce on reflective downwelling..and plots of initial blocking formats!!..

There be highly likely be some alarming..

Model outs in regards to russian pen-blocking...and a deep freeze euro notion...

The snaps are somewhay stale now...but full reflect the above!!!.

Winter is yet 2 set!!!..

More on the snow situs after the 12z..

I have not the full time atm..

But looking fab midlands south!!!..

As per my initial statements!!!

gefs_ensemblemean_pch_2019012100.webp

Edited January 27, 2019 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

I was on the ‘don’t tell anyone’ approach but the Meto yellow warning has out paid to that and now I stand accused of not letting the kids know it might snow ! 

Suppose I’m just working on the basis that if it can go wrong then it will ! 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Have they always had a 6z?

It’s fairly new and only goes to day 6 (or 5) 

[tight isobar]

11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah hard to ignore that trend, though I think we will only gain real confidence from the 12z suite which should have formation put into the data as well.

I think the likely evolution will lead to 3-5cms and broadly just about every model I've seen today has that sort of figures. Only a tiny minority have the front not forming and that set-up is starting to get very well forecasted now.

 

Tbh honest that accum-calculation could be far off-the mark!!.

Its a fill and pep..looking dynamic..

Has sweetspot dumpings written all over it...

We continue to decipher!!!

@ 10/15 cms in favoured!!!

Edited January 27, 2019 by tight isobar

[Summer Sun]

8 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Have they always had a 6z?

Launched on October 1st 2018

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I was on the ‘don’t tell anyone’ approach but the Meto yellow warning has out paid to that and now I stand accused of not letting the kids know it might snow ! 

Suppose I’m just working on the basis that if it can go wrong then it will ! 

I told some people last night that there maybe some snow, but I didn't commit to how much. I think as long as people don't go too extreme in what they say, I think its fairly safe to assume there will be snow about, especially the further SE you are in the country. Of course 3-5cms may well be enough to cause problems, especially if it falls during rush hour which is possible for the W.London region in particular.

I'm going to be migrating to the regionals for now (though I may still comment on Thursday) as this is starting to become quite IMBY.

[swfc]

Latest BBC live weather forecast for Tues showed good band of snow moving South West from the Atlantic.not much sign of the small low to the south.staying cold all week with further snow

Edited January 27, 2019 by swfc

[shaky]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s fairly new and only goes to day 6 (or 5) 

Blue whats it showing for day 5 and 6!!still takes that slider low further south on thursday or is it like the crappy gfs?

[tight isobar]

Just quickly..for the sake of imby-ism..

I look in a very favoured place..

Get ya pencils out and draw aline...oxford- into most kent..

And scribble the in betweens!!!!

South and east of that!!!!

Edited January 27, 2019 by tight isobar

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Just quickly..for the sake of imby-ism..

I look in a very favoured place..

Get ya pencils out and draw aline...oxford- into most kent..

And scribble the in betweens!!!!

South and east of that!!!!

Hi TI.what do you base that on?tia

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Hi TI.what do you base that on?tia

The latest model trends for Tuesdays low - That's what

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Hi TI.what do you base that on?tia

Looking @the outs...

@experience

@tracking

[Mike Poole]

ICON-EU 6z take on cumulative snow fall for the Tuesday event seems to tie in well with the Met Office warning.

5cm for favoured spots.

[bradymk]

Comparing the MetOffice Euro4 model with GFS (and ecmwf but less so), the high res Euro4 is clearly further west with the front & precipitation on midday Tuesday. This could help a lot of areas as it increases the chances of precip arriving overnight for more people (less chance of rain first).

Euro4

GFS

ECMWF

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

The latest model trends for Tuesdays low - That's what

Check the latest forecast!!!

[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Check the latest forecast!!!

Screenshoot (4 a bit of fun)

My assesment..

And poke it up wednesday morn.

Edit..

4 once i think its being UNDERHYPED!!.

and such as the met will upgrade warnings tmoz morn onward!!!!

Edited January 27, 2019 by tight isobar

[Tim Bland]

@bluearmy why does the downwelling response keep getting delayed? Didn’t this SSW happen about 5 weeks ago now? Are we really looking at 7-8 weeks for a response ?