Cold hunt - models and chat

[kold weather]

Once again a  VERY snowy GFS para run for a fair chank of the country, even the south has decent transient events (though rain always risk, especially close to the coast for obvious reasons).

Because it creates a good snow pack, the 06z para is also severely cold, max temperatures well below 0C on this run, even the south gets a solid ice day or two.

Anyway, abit different from the 06z GFS op run which never makes that snowfield and so a much warmer run, especially for the south where temperatures are basically average throughout.

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, Gustywind said:

When’s the last time we actually had a decent long cold spell in January? I can think of only one in the last 20 years and that was 2010. One sub 3c Jan in the same period?

Perhaps time to accept that it’s no longer possible to get one when the PV/Jet is at its peak during winter? Hence why the good spells tend to come at the start & end of winter.

Probably location dependent, but while not as cold as January 2010, January 2013 seemed to be quite cold and snowy at times with some modest heights over around the Scandinavian region for a time. Ended up with about 16cm of snow that month (although, to be fair, it was mostly the middle part January 2013 that was cold and wintry). Wouldn’t personally mind a repeat of that month, or even a blend of both January 2010 and 2013.

That Canadian Vortex on the models does appear to be a bit of a menace at the moment for those who like freezing and snowy conditions. I think what the models show could still be a lot worse than what they currently portraying (though would admit, the GFS 06Z is a bit of a wet blanket). Indeed they could be a lot better for cold and snow, and would agree that the first and later part of Winter is more likely to have favourable pressure patterns for cold and snow. But I suppose with the North-West to South-East tracking Lows they generally show at the moment, there looks to be a fair bit of chilly Polar Maritime, possibly briefly becoming Arctic Maritime/Polar Continental, flows at times with a wintry mix of weather. Maybe the possibility for a more general low level surprise snowfall or two, but probably just have to wait and see how things continue to evolve.

[Timmytour]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Always in the wrong place the Azores high ,but seems to disappear at the end of winter in recent years hence two bitter Marches in 5 years

March 2013 will be soon 7 years ago!  I'd accept that was a bitter March. Assuming the other one refers to last year, i would venture  to say it was a March with some bitter cold in, rather than a bitterly cold month itself.  In fact 4 of the March's between 1961 and 1970 were colder than last year. It was cooler than what we've been experiencing this century a a rule, but maybe to call it "bitter" is a slight exaggeration  

[Had Worse]

10 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

March 2013 will be soon 7 years ago!  I'd accept that was a bitter March. Assuming the other one refers to last year, i would venture  to say it was a March with some bitter cold in, rather than a bitterly cold month itself.  In fact 4 of the March's between 1961 and 1970 were colder than last year. It was cooler than what we've been experiencing this century a a rule, but maybe to call it "bitter" is a slight exaggeration  

I make that 6 but yes, you can gladly reuse this post in 13 months time.

[Methuselah]

I'm glad I was born in 1957 and not 2057...In winter 2119, Netweather will have a thread dedicated to searching for days with maxes below 10C! 

[phil nw.]

There may be some snowy surprises to quite modest levels tomorrow as quite a cold plunge of polar maritime air cuts in behind the cold front.Some of that cold being sourced from the Greenland ice cap.

Temperatures are likely to fall in any showers and with dew points(on second image)around zero there is every chance of these turning to snow especially in any heavier showers.

Tomorrows fax shows a trough line over Ireland first thing which will push east across the country through the day enhancing showery activity.

Snow fall always difficult to forecast but the chances are there for a number of locations in such an unstable flow with quite a deep upper cold pool heading se across us.

 

I think for the next 10 days or so this sort of output will likely be repeated with more activity heading se off the Canadian vortex.

[Swave Snow]

2 hours ago, Gustywind said:

When’s the last time we actually had a decent long cold spell in January? I can think of only one in the last 20 years and that was 2010. One sub 3c Jan in the same period?

Perhaps time to accept that it’s no longer possible to get one when the PV/Jet is at its peak during winter? Hence why the good spells tend to come at the start & end of winter.

Yes, but wouldn't that bring in westerlies and lots of windy weather? Like normal winters here in the UK I  totally disagree this assessment, we have been in the blocking azores high zone now for months 

[shotski]

28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm glad I was born in 1957 and not 2057...In winter 2119, Netweather will have a thread dedicated to searching for days with maxes below 10C! 

Frost will be the new snow Ed

[Timmytour]

35 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

I make that 6 but yes, you can gladly reuse this post in 13 months time.

To be as accurate as I wanted to be, I should have said that March 2013  soon will be 7 marches ago, inclusive of both March 2013 itself and March 2019 .   Other than December 2010, we have not had a winter month colder than March 2013 in over 20 years  (Jan 1997). that's the real tragedy!   

Edited January 21, 2019 by Timmytour
typos

[swfc]

Wonder if the 12z can conjure up some rolloping runs to up the mood!!!!! Guess not looking at that waste of space pv lobe over Canada.You never know I guess ????

[#windysnow#]

40 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

There may be some snowy surprises to quite modest levels tomorrow as quite a cold plunge of polar maritime air cuts in behind the cold front.Some of that cold being sourced from the Greenland ice cap.

Temperatures are likely to fall in any showers and with dew points(on second image)around zero there is every chance of these turning to snow especially in any heavier showers.

Tomorrows fax shows a trough line over Ireland first thing which will push east across the country through the day enhancing showery activity.

Snow fall always difficult to forecast but the chances are there for a number of locations in such an unstable flow with quite a deep upper cold pool heading se across us.

 

I think for the next 10 days or so this sort of output will likely be repeated with more activity heading se off the Canadian vortex.

Nice post Phil - My location not far from you, how do you think we will fair? 

[cheeky_monkey]

seems most the models are forecasting majority of the HLB to set up on this side of the NH

[Catacol]

oooo - flying visit....no time to catch up - but who fancies a bit of snow in the SW on Saturday? Just shows the models for this week are not all meh.....!

 

[phil nw.]

16 minutes ago, #windysnow# said:

Nice post Phil - My location not far from you, how do you think we will fair? 

Thanks.ws.As i said snow is always tricky to forecast especially from a North westerly quarter as the cold will get more modification than from the east.Still this looks like a somewhat colder version than usual and the last run shows snow chances to quite modest levels.

Edited January 21, 2019 by phil nw.

[Frosty_wsm]

13 minutes ago, Catacol said:

oooo - flying visit....no time to catch up - but who fancies a bit of snow in the SW on Saturday? Just shows the models for this week are not all meh.....!

 

Would be nice to see that chart reach T0 I must admit but any good snow charts for the SW always seem to have a higher chance of imploding than when showing snow further north. 

[kold weather]

19 minutes ago, Catacol said:

oooo - flying visit....no time to catch up - but who fancies a bit of snow in the SW on Saturday? Just shows the models for this week are not all meh.....!

 

Sorry to say but profile is too warm for snow, dew points well above 0C for the SW even at that point (indeed, far SW is upto 10C!) and although it looks like it should be cold enough, there is a significant warm sector that is present with it. It does get increasingly mixed out as it moves eastwards and so snow level comes down on the backend of it and so greater chances of snow from CS England eastwards on that chart.

 

[Weathizard]

Awaiting the 12z runs, hoping for a miracle more than anything to be honest! But I can’t not look just in case things suddenly flip Cursed.

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Sorry to say but profile is too warm for snow, dew points well above 0C for the SW even at that point (indeed, far SW is upto 10C!) and although it looks like it should be cold enough, there is a significant warm sector that is present with it. It does get increasingly mixed out as it moves eastwards and so snow level comes down on the backend of it and so greater chances of snow from CS England eastwards on that chart.

 

Same model same time frame

 

2m Temps no where near 10C
850's 

Tight temp gradient with temps falling all the time.

[MidnightSnow]

 

33 minutes ago, Catacol said:

oooo - flying visit....no time to catch up - but who fancies a bit of snow in the SW on Saturday? Just shows the models for this week are not all meh.....!

 

 

10 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Sorry to say but profile is too warm for snow, dew points well above 0C for the SW even at that point (indeed, far SW is upto 10C!) and although it looks like it should be cold enough, there is a significant warm sector that is present with it. It does get increasingly mixed out as it moves eastwards and so snow level comes down on the backend of it and so greater chances of snow from CS England eastwards on that chart.

 

 

That was the smallest roller coaster I've been on in this forum lol.

Edited January 21, 2019 by MidnightSnow

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Same model same time frame

 

2m Temps no where near 10C
850's 

Tight temp gradient with temps falling all the time.

I was looking at the 06z run which does have dew points at 10C in the far SW at 120hrs, but to be fair it does cool down quickly after that.

Looking now at the 00z run, still predominantly rain, but it DOES show some back end snow which does give a small settling amount east Devon.

Anyway I hope that run comes off because that's a great shot at getting snow in my location as well, which isn't exactly a favoured area in the set-uo shown!

ps, here was the 06z at 120hrs with the 10C in the far SW, more general temps of 7-8C, still way too high for any snow.

Edited January 21, 2019 by kold weather

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I was looking at the 06z run which does have dew points at 10C in the far SW at 120hrs, but to be fair it does cool down quickly after that.

Looking now at the 00z run, still predominantly rain, but it DOES show some back end snow which does give a small settling amount east Devon.

Anyway I hope that run comes off because that's a great shot at getting snow in my location as well, which isn't exactly a favoured area in the set-uo shown!

ps, here was the 06z at 120hrs with the 10C in the far SW, more general temps of 7-8C, still way too high for any snow.

Best if you compared data from the same model, in this case the original chart was from the ICON 0z, probably updated now

[kold weather]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Best if you compared data from the same model, in this case the original chart was from the ICON 0z, probably updated now

Anyway doesn't matter, the 12z ICON has rain whole way through on the latest run, so the 00z ICON was probably just on the colder side of what is possible. Indeed most models make a lot more of that LP and have it way further north.

[feb1991blizzard]

Possible frontal snow.

[Weathizard]

Pass me the bucket  Azores high about to nose in again, bugger off 

Edited January 21, 2019 by Weathizard

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Possible frontal snow.

Indeed, without the Ridge of the 0z the mild sector gets mixed out sooner to