Storm Freya - Atlantic storm 6

[Summer Sun]

Storm Freya named for Sunday and into Monday

15:00 Sun 3 to 06:00 Mon 4

Storm Freya will bring very strong winds, with some travel disruption and possible dangerous conditions late Sunday and into Monday

What to expect

• Injuries and danger to life from flying debris are possible
• Some damage to buildings and trees, such as tiles blown from roofs and fallen branches, could happen
• Road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected, with longer journey times and cancellations possible
• Some roads and bridges may close
• Power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage
• Injuries and danger to life could occur from large waves and beach material being thrown onto sea fronts, coastal roads and properties

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-03-03

[Jo Farrow]

This will be the second low pressure of the weekend. The first, quite fiesty one will bring gales to the Western Isles Saturday night and fresh winds on Saturday to much of UK as a pre-amble. Then Freya is the developing low one the trailing front, coming up from the SW. Will be interesting to see if it has cleared away from eastern Britain into the NOrth Sea in time for the Monday morning commute. 

[Summer Sun]

The current yellow warning zone for Freya

[Jo Farrow]

Warning is for wind but there will also be plenty of rain this weekend. 

[Snowyowl9]

I think this will be the most severe storm we`ve had all season.

Its a sleeper.

[Tim M]

Yes this has been ugraded for my area, North Notts, in terms of wind by Met Office and NW. Strangely XC Weather, which usually has highest wind speed predictions, has lowest of 3.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Nothing of note from this storm, infact looks like a fart in a thunderstorm... 

[West is Best]

I don't have a problem about disagreeing with the Met Office but as many people use this site, could you please back up your remark with something rather more factually based? After all, this is the current Met Office position on Storm Freya which refers to possible injury and danger to life:

[johnholmes]

Still differences in the predicted position between the main 3, that is using Met Fax at 00 z Monday.

Not sure what Surrey is on about as it has the potential for some high gusts in the usual SW quadrant of the storm.

[The PIT]

Looks like a blink and you used missed it windy spell as it motors through at a rapid pace. It even may not develop yet.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

47 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Looks like a blink and you used missed it windy spell as it motors through at a rapid pace. It even may not develop yet.

 

That's what I was referring to, it's over very quickly less than 3 hours of any meaningful wind gusts.. 

 

[cyclonic happiness]

5 hours ago, Surrey said:

Nothing of note from this storm, infact looks like a fart in a thunderstorm... 

I don't know, 50-60mph gales in the central Midlands is very concerning, seeing as we hardly ever get gales nowadays here

[legritter]

This in coming storm ,i would say as the potential for damage .Track  ,speed  ,pressure and very important Timing ,just remember the great storm of 1987 ,passed across england in the early hours ,which was a blessing for some another 4hrs later and a few million people would have been out of their beds and on the roads .keep an eye on latest developements ,it could move further north or south , but please gang i personally got caught up in the burns day storm with fallen trees in front of me and behind ,so POtential ,we have been warned , certainly crazy weather ,Stellas on me ,cheers .

[James1979]

15 minutes ago, legritter said:

This in coming storm ,i would say as the potential for damage .Track  ,speed  ,pressure and very important Timing ,just remember the great storm of 1987 ,passed across england in the early hours ,which was a blessing for some another 4hrs later and a few million people would have been out of their beds and on the roads .keep an eye on latest developements ,it could move further north or south , but please gang i personally got caught up in the burns day storm with fallen trees in front of me and behind ,so POtential ,we have been warned , certainly crazy weather ,Stellas on me ,cheers .

I was in Romford, Essex for the 1987 event and Brentwood, Essex for the Burns and both were very, very different affairs to this one (unless something changes drastically) - 50 mph gusts with bare trees, I cannot say I'm concerned in the slightest and not sure warrants a warning (fair enough for the 60-70+mph zones) but 87 mph gusts, full leaf tress falling like matchsticks around the house, tiles and bricks flying down the road was worth a warning. Or two.  

[johnholmes]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Looks like a blink and you used missed it windy spell as it motors through at a rapid pace. It even may not develop yet.

 

Currently (12Z) it looks to be in the right entrance to the 200 mb flow, about jet strength. I would assume it to move a bit to the north of the actual centre of the jet looking at what data I can find. This would place it at or about the left exit by early morning tomorrow. This is the area where surface lows deepen rapidly. As to its track, then my comment above is probably still valid, most likely would seem to be off SW Eire then about NE to be (funnily enough almost over you Pit), southern Pennines/Peak District by early afternoon, maybe down to about 980-985 mb and out NE'wards. Remember the strongest winds are normally in its SW quadrant. We can all watch its progress to morrow.

This link, not precise with such systems but about the best available to us for hour by hour

http://meteocentre.com/analysis/map-surface.php?hour=0&lang=en&map=UK

Click on Europe and enlarge it  from standard to get a better view. Other than that the the 6 hourly Met Fax charts

https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

Be an interesting few hours and hopefully no deaths or serious injuries for anyone. Keep away from exposed beaches etc!

[The PIT]

Possibly slightly less deeper on the 12oz winds maybe a little less intense but I'm really nit picking at this stage. Now a case of wait and see what the models say tomorrow morning then a wait too see what turns up.

[January Snowstorm]

I struggle to see any storm on the charts tbh

[Gael_Force]

13 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I struggle to see any storm on the charts tbh

The French hi-res has it. 

[The PIT]

Interestingly netweather forecast for us is having none of it. Max gust 46 mph.

[wimblettben]

49 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The French hi-res has it. 

Big Differences between this and xcweather!

Can only see 40-60mph gusts inland on those maps but this one is showing a short period of 60-80mph.

Confused.

[West is Best]

Well to Surrey in particular and my old friend The Pit, a certain rather well-known forecaster was once a tad cavalier about a rapidly developing storm  They're notoriously difficult to get right. It's these ones which develop at or over the UK which can be very potent. The rapidly deepening low is the one to be most circumspect about.

50-60 mph fairly widely, 60-70 mph in the SW and possibly Midlands later and I don't mind betting we see an 80mph gust somewhere. That's worthy of the Met Office warning. So please be careful folks.

[James1979]

Who was cavalier?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Big downgrades overnight on wind speeds on the GFS to do with the low now hardly deepening.. 

At 5am live surface obvs have her at 992mb

At 6am the GFS has it at 990mb..give it 10-15mins and the live surface obvs will be at 6am 

This would mean so far, the GFS is calling it right.. Arome and Arpege notorious for over doing wind speeds 

 

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

For me the strongest of winds will occur in any convective showers that can get going.. that would greatly increas the chance of more damaging gusts of wind... the Arome actually does quite well at picking this out although its PPN forcasts can be a bit off.. EURO4 is king...

As expected 6AM live surface obvs @ 990mb

EURO4 @ 6am wanted 988mb so currently on course with GFS... Arpege also right @ 990mb

 

Be intresting to see what happens next and as PIT said yesterday, most models now deepen the low further once cleared the UK.. The timing of this is the biggest player..Hence why the GFS is not interested in any meaningful wind strengths 

 

[West is Best]

25 minutes ago, Surrey said:

 

At 6am the GFS has it at 990mb..give it 10-15mins and the live surface obvs will be at 6am 

 

This would mean so far, the GFS is calling it right.. Arome and Arpege notorious for over doing wind speeds 

 

 

 

 

 

In many years observing the weather I have never known the GFS be correct about UK storms. They either have ludicrously deep ones in mid-Atlantic, or ignore ones that develop and deepen late. This comes from a big fan of the GFS but it's definitely their weakest link.

Met Office all the way on UK storms. Every time.*

 

*Well apart from the obvious one that we don't need to go on about.