April 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

11 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

This forecast now looking very likely.

Yes, not bad!

[Summer Sun]

9.5c to the 26th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 9.5c to the 25th & 26th

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

[Relativistic]

21 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

In general 1988 onward marks a step change.

Would be interesting to know why there was such a dramatic change. When you consider that the AMO was still comfortably negative at that point, and Arctic sea ice hadn't yet begun its nosedive, one might expect that it be more gradual?

Edited April 27, 2019 by Relativistic

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Would be interesting to know why there was such a dramatic change. When you consider that the AMO was still comfortably negative at that point, and Arctic sea ice hadn't yet begun its nosedive, one might expect that it be more gradual?

Perhaps the influence of the AMO is being exaggerated somewhat?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at at 8.9C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall up to a massive 11.2mm 17.7% of monthly rainfall.

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Perhaps the influence of the AMO is being exaggerated somewhat?

Even if we ignore the AMO, though, would we really expect relatively minor reductions in Arctic sea ice to very suddenly shift the average position of the jet stream?

Edited April 27, 2019 by Relativistic

[Methuselah]

27 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Even if we ignore the AMO, though, would we really expect relatively minor reductions in Arctic sea ice to very suddenly shift the average position of the jet stream?

Or, there's nothing wrong with the expectations per se, just other factors/feedbacks in play. Factors/feedbacks about which we understand (effect-wise) even less than we do variations in the extent of Arctic sea-ice?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.8C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall 17.2mm 27.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

9.4c to the 27th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

_______________________________

Current high this month 9.5c to the 25th & 26th

Current low this month 5.9c to the 4th

[feb1991blizzard]

No update today.

[Sunny76]

On 26/04/2019 at 18:30, Don said:

Strange how that came about just as the climate change threat became common knowledge!

I remember in December 1987 and January 1988 being the first winter as a child without any snow or real cold, compared to the previous years. Although, there were mild spells earlier in the 80s, this period was the mildest at the time.

Our English teacher at the time, discussed the hole in the ozone layer, and how deodorants were damaging the atmosphere.

It was also the first time the news started reporting this problem quite regularly. The Cold War was on its way out, and this seemed like the new threat at the time.

i don’t think the weather alone was what motivated the media to report this, so someone must have know about the shifting climate prior to 87/88. The effects though, were starting to be felt around this time. 

That’s my take on it anyway.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back to 8.9C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[damianslaw]

5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I remember in December 1987 and January 1988 being the first winter as a child without any snow or real cold, compared to the previous years. Although, there were mild spells earlier in the 80s, this period was the mildest at the time.

Our English teacher at the time, discussed the hole in the ozone layer, and how deodorants were damaging the atmosphere.

It was also the first time the news started reporting this problem quite regularly. The Cold War was on its way out, and this seemed like the new threat at the time.

i don’t think the weather alone was what motivated the media to report this, so someone must have know about the shifting climate prior to 87/88. The effects though, were starting to be felt around this time. 

That’s my take on it anyway.

Yes I too vividly remember being taught about the ozone layer at the time, and how aerosols were bad in this respect. It coincided with a flip to generally much warmer conditions.

[Sunny76]

50 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes I too vividly remember being taught about the ozone layer at the time, and how aerosols were bad in this respect. It coincided with a flip to generally much warmer conditions.

Yes, it’s weird how that happened.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

No update again - second day running.

[Roger J Smith]

Probably not much if any change to running CET in those two missing days. The EWP tracker reached 45 mm by 27th, slight increases likely there also. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield on 8.9C and will finish on 8.9C +0.5c above normal. Rainfall 17.2mm 27.2% of the monthly average

[Derecho]

On 29/04/2019 at 17:02, Sunny76 said:

I remember in December 1987 and January 1988 being the first winter as a child without any snow or real cold, compared to the previous years. Although, there were mild spells earlier in the 80s, this period was the mildest at the time.

Our English teacher at the time, discussed the hole in the ozone layer, and how deodorants were damaging the atmosphere.

It was also the first time the news started reporting this problem quite regularly. The Cold War was on its way out, and this seemed like the new threat at the time.

i don’t think the weather alone was what motivated the media to report this, so someone must have know about the shifting climate prior to 87/88. The effects though, were starting to be felt around this time. 

That’s my take on it anyway.

Reduction of aerosols may have reduced cloud cover across parts of Europe but that is uncertain. There was also a change in the frequency of high pressure over Spain during that time period too. Western Europe especially was lagging behind the warming trend in global temperatures and then after that it caught back up. 

[The PIT]

Interesting that this month for us is only 0.5C above normal with the night time temperatures pulling the average down. The min being -0.6C below normal.

[jonboy]

11 hours ago, The PIT said:

Interesting that this month for us is only 0.5C above normal with the night time temperatures pulling the average down. The min being -0.6C below normal.

Interesting indeed as its been the night time temperatures that have been one of the main drivers for above average temperatures in recent times

[feb1991blizzard]

Says on metcheck 8.8c final figure - must have been a massive downward correction.

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/cet.asp

[BornFromTheVoid]

Data has been corrected up to the 27th so far, with a downward correction from 9.43C to to 9.02C. The final 3 days of the month looked like averaging close to 10C, so according to all that, 9.0C or 9.1C is the most likely final figure

[JeffC]

2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Data has been corrected up to the 27th so far, with a downward correction from 9.43C to to 9.02C. The final 3 days of the month looked like averaging close to 10C, so according to all that, 9.0C or 9.1C is the most likely final figure

Touch higher would suit me if you please, I guessed 9.4C. Typical the one month I go higher , I'm too high, I'm usually way colder!

[Summer Sun]

Still awaiting the final figure Hadley hasn't updated since the 27th

[ARTDEMOLE]

Hopefully just after 11:00 we might receive a sign.