Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

[NTC]

First time I have seen this map the weather stations in some areas are very sparse take my area just Doncaster Airport and nothing else in South Yorkshire or North Midlands

[danm]

Yep Heathrow at 30c at 9.20am

[matty007]

Peterborough at 25.3c



Faversham at 32.5c (yes I know, not offical. Take about 1.5coff for accuracy. 3.2c up on this time yesterday)

[knocker]

The showers in France are mostly associated with the trough

[h2005__uk__]

8 minutes ago, matty007 said:

No, it's on the free 'Live' feed.

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/map

How's it showing a temperature that's 'between' the hours? My local one (Writtle) isn't showing up there but my next nearest, Andrewsfield, still has the 9am temp.

[Mapantz]

UKV showing a max of 38°C before cloud / showers arrive circa 3pm

[matty007]

Just now, h2005__uk__ said:

How's it showing a temperature that's 'between' the hours? My local one (Writtle) isn't showing up there but my next nearest, Andrewsfield, still has the 9am temp.

Yes, it's patchy with the times.
I always have troubles finding sites with real time updating and numeorus stations.

[matty007]

Just now, Mapantz said:

UKV showing a max of 38°C before cloud / showers arrive circa 3pm

I really hope the cloud stays off. If it comes at 3pm, you couldn't write it. Just need it to hold off until 4-4:30.

[NTC]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

The showers in France are mostly associated with the trough

So what does that mean regarding those showers are they likely to migrate north or stay where they are and fade away'?

[matty007]

Heathrow at 31.2c at 10am.

[Stabilo19]

1 hour ago, NTC said:

The BBC have the following for London

9am  28c

10am 30c

11am 32c

12noon 34c

1pm 36c

2pm 37c

3pm 38c

4pm 38c

So I assume we can follow the live temps on this gauge if 38.5c is to be surpassed.

Heathrow - 31.6 C at 9:50AM, we can round it to a 32 C

 

We’ve almost reached yesterday’s max and it’s only 10am!

[NTC]

A few of those showers now heading over the Channel

 

 

[matty007]

Just now, NTC said:

A few of those showers now heading over the Channel

 

 

I really hope they disperese/die off. Last thing we want.

[Man With Beard]

46 minutes ago, knocker said:

No surprises there/.I was told many moons ago by one of the 'experts ' in the winter thread that nobody was interested in my opinion anyway which immediately attracted countless likes' . But to suggest that the winter thread, and to a lesser extent, the summer is an example of good scientific practice leaves me speechless

You are taking my words out of context. I am not suggesting the MOD is good scientific practice. In my professional practice I have a lot of experience of both performing and studying research and I am well aware the rigors of ensuring research has a robust methodology that is replicable and as free from bias or misleading variables as possible. What we do here is not like that. But there are similar principles in the way I, and others, approach forecasting here. I know you like to report model output, and that is great and useful, and you'll never find me criticizing you for that, nor should anyone else because what you give to the MOD is helpful to many. However, I like to also test model output to see what the boundaries are of model reliability. And don't you agree it has been interesting to see just how far out we've been able to use the ECM to pinpoint temperatures both last month and this with a consistent plus three adjustment? Now it wouldn't be out of the question to turn this into proper academic research that could be published under peer blind review. You'd need to get as many examples as possible, set clear questions to frame the study, choose appropriate statistical analysis, decide on the parameters of what would be considered accurate etc, etc - so very different to what we do on here but the intention is the same. 

A shame I need to do a post like this to set the record straight but you've kind of ridiculed my previous statements. 

Why don't we strike a deal Knocker? I'll focus on my posts, and you focus on yours. I'm not trying to mislead anyone just as you aren't. If you disagree with my posts, just why not just post your own view of the models as you usually do without bickering over mine. And let everyone decide for themselves which one is right. 

 

[NTC]

Just now, matty007 said:

I really hope they disperese/die off. Last thing we want.

They have actuall moved quite quickly north in the last hour the wind is supposed to be keen today isn't it even though its hot air

[Mapantz]

UKV certainly stuck to it's guns. 

Plenty of time yet, though.

[matty007]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

UKV certainly stuck to it's guns. 

Plenty of time yet, though.

That will be a rotten bit of luck if that cloud comes at 3pm. Fingers crossed it tracks elsewhere.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

 

Why don't we strike a deal Knocker? I'll focus on my posts, and you focus on yours. I'm not trying to mislead anyone just as you aren't. If you disagree with my posts, just why not just post your own view of the models as you usually do without bickering over mine. And let everyone decide for themselves which one is right. 

 

Problem with that is that if everyone did that there would be no debate, you might as well just have everyone's blogs listed in order of post without the quote option, would be way too formulaic and would read like a met office text forecast rather than a forum.

[matty007]

 Indeed, a band of rain going across the channel. However looking at it, it will miss the London area by some margin.



  

 

 

 

 

Edited July 25, 2019 by matty007

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, matty007 said:

 Indeed, a band of rain going across the channel. However looking at it, it will miss the London area by some margin.



  

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I will be on the Eastern edge from the looks of things, then up Reading direction.

Pretty contained looking cells as well, not a large anvil situation like Tuesday.

Still confident the record goes and am happy with my low 39c call.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

10 hours ago, h2005__uk__ said:

I got a small unit for £200 from CPC and it works like a dream (Aldi/Lidl also sell them sometimes). Gets my bedroom (10sq.m. in size) down by several degrees in under an hour. This evening it went from 31C to 22C in a couple of hours.

It's a worthwhile investment if you can afford it - costs about 50p in electricity to run all night and should have a long life as it will only be used for a couple of months (if that) each year and only at night if you just want it cool for sleeping.

I'm going to try to get a small unit for my bedroom once the current demand reduces.  It was awful in my bedroom last night, despite careful balancing of which curtains/windows/doors to open and which to leave closed at what time.

[Eskimo]

If you guys in the London area all puff at the same time, it will divert westwards across the Birmingham area. We don't deserve sun here. 

[matty007]

5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm going to try to get a small unit for my bedroom once the current demand reduces.  It was awful in my bedroom last night, despite careful balancing of which curtains/windows/doors to open and which to leave closed at what time.

Currently is the first time since 2003 that I have used a fan. Indoors, it's a little opressive even for me. 2003 was the last time I remember heat feeling so 'tropical'. Even in the great spells of 2006,2013,2015 plume and 2018, the heat didn't have quite the same feel to it

Truly feels like being in the Algarve as opposed to the UK.

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Why don't we strike a deal Knocker? I'll focus on my posts, and you focus on yours. I'm not trying to mislead anyone just as you aren't. If you disagree with my posts, just why not just post your own view of the models as you usually do without bickering over mine. And let everyone decide for themselves which one is right. 

 

Also to put the record straight I have no intention of bickering over your posts, nor have i in the past, life it is too short for that nonsense My original post was about the general tenor and modus operadi of the two threads, not aimed at your personally. And, as I was told recently if you don't like it don't post. All very simple really/

[Azazel]

So Summer for me so far is sitting at about a 5-6/10. An appalling June followed by a very pleasant July - first week of August looking a bit non-descript/boring (praying we don't have a re-run of June, but we probably will because August is often rubbish/autumnal).

If August sees another plume/severe storm outbreak, that would elevate this summer to a 7-8/10 for me.