Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I'm banging my head against the door here guys!! Some are saying it looks OK.. Me included... Others saying its disappointing!! I really feel sorry for the layman.... 

[Djdazzle]

6 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Unlucky?..it ends with high pressure ridging / building in!

I know, but the ridge is not in a great place. Would be quite cool and fairly cloudy.

It’s better than now, but not ideal,

Edited June 16, 2019 by Djdazzle

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

I know, but the ridge is nor in a great place. Would be quite cool and fairly cloudy.

It’s better than now, but not ideal,

You can't hold a 10 day chart to its exact location! It's in a place that could quickly become very favourable. 

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm banging my head against the door here guys!! Some are saying it looks OK.. Me included... Others saying its disappointing!! I really feel sorry for the layman.... 

Indeed, I feel we would be lucky to see high pressure ridging in like the Ecm 12z operational shows following yet more deluges in the week ahead!

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Mattwolves said:

You can't hold a 10 day chart to its exact location! It's in a place that could quickly become very favourable. 

Indeed, and I wouldn’t expect it to verify. My original post refers to “would”. I’d be hoping that the ridge is more over the U.K. than to the west.

Ensembles may shed more light.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Indeed, I feel we would be lucky to see high pressure ridging in like the Ecm 12z operational shows following yet more deluges in the week ahead!

Here here Karl, I raise my half full glass to you on that.

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Here here Karl, I raise my half full glass to you on that.

Although that day 10 chart isn't great, it would improve for a time thereafter, at least for the south but theres another pesky trough to the southwest of iceland..surprise surprise...not..but it's all hypothetical since the next run will be different..and so on.

Edited June 16, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Although that day 10 chart isn't great, it would improve thereafter although it's hypothetical since the next run will be different..and so on.

Yes, I think I based my post on the fact that high pressure would start to ridge favourably by day 10...compared to last year you would say its an average chart... But compared to recently, it's half decent! With the potential to improve at that stage. This seems to be the problem atm... Average charts are appearing quite decent due to the fact, it's simply been terrible.... We really do need to higher our expectations again Karl. Hopefully the ensembles will paint a bit of gloss on that water based emulsion chart.   

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Im not falling for any 10 day away ridges. My glass remains half full.

[tinybill]

10 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Indeed, I feel we would be lucky to see high pressure ridging in like the Ecm 12z operational shows following yet more deluges in the week ahead!

if country file right  tueday is a wash out with possible flooding very easily  mind they did say it could get a  bit  more  drier by the end of the week

Edited June 17, 2019 by Blessed Weather
Typo corrected

[Methuselah]

Maybe not the best, for SE England -- but for most of Scotty, that'd be great!

 Oh bugger. I've moved!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here is the mean guys. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM 12z mean, and looks favourable for a period of settled weather at T192:

And for an ensemble mean run, this looks like an endorsement of summer to come, at T240:

[Frosty.]

That's a decent day 10 mean from the Ecm 12z, better angle sw / ne for the azores high to build in thereafter!!

[Djdazzle]

Pretty good mean there from the ECM. Hopefully the ridge would strengthen on subsequent runs.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Jon Snow said:

That's a decent day 10 mean from the Ecm 12z, better angle sw / ne for the azores high to build in thereafter!!

Great ain't it Karl... I didn't wanna point it out though, for fear of being told its so and so.... Houston..... We have lift off..... I hope....

[knocker]

The ext Eps mean anomalies have been reasonably consistent over the last three days with a westerly upper flow which becomes a tad more benign in the nearer time frame

The reason for that is that it appears to be because it's at the tail end of some significant, albeit brief, amplification of the Atlantic subtropical high in the earlier period.

Edited June 16, 2019 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Here is a chart that God prepared earlier: 

And, here's what the ECM has for the coming Friday:  

Just saying!

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening Everyone....The Jet stream is always below the UK  so expect  some severe weather in the days ahead 

[Frosty.]

I mentioned about the chance of a plume next sunday or early the following week but that would be a double-edged sword because although it would become very warm or hot and increasingly humid, it would again bring the threat of more severe deluges to the locations that have suffered greatly during recent days, and will again on tues / wed!!..so we have to be careful what we wish for..we could be entering a period of repeat thundery plumes from the continent!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

I mentioned about the chance of a plume next sunday or early the following week but that would be a double-edged sword because although it would become very warm or hot and increasingly humid, it would again bring the threat of more severe deluges to the locations that have suffered greatly during recent days, and will again on tues / wed!!..so we have to be careful what we wish for..we could be entering a period of repeat thundery plumes from the continent!

okay though Jon, at least it will be mild

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Unlucky?..it ends with high pressure ridging / building in!

A look at the day 9 to 10 chart shows the low south of Iceland barelling east.

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

A look at the day 9 to 10 chart shows the low south of Iceland barelling east.

Indeed, I did mention that on a subsequent post but of course it's all hypothetical in that range isn't it.

Edited June 16, 2019 by Jon Snow

[JeffC]

Right, just skim read the last couple of pages. Upshot is that it may or may not get a bit warmer in the SE, but best the country can expect overall is some tepid rain, volumes TBA?

[StormChaseUK]

18z offering the 50th switcheroo of the summer. Plume that will turn to northerly 12C like it did the last 49 times lol .. not buying it