Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

No sign of a heatwave then for the next 16 days! Very disappointing 

The day to day detail for the weather this week alone is gonna prove hard to pin down. So to entail there is no signs of an heatwave in the next 16 days is a bit rich!! If I tried to bring you a forecast for nearly 3 weeks time right now, I would be offering about a 0-5% chance of that coming off! Back to the here and now. The North looks quite unsettled over the next few days, lots of showers and possible storms towards midweek, the South looks a fair bit better, perhaps some showers coming into the W/SW on Thursday.. Beyond that, shaping up to be a good weekend... Not so sure about next week though.... Far from a done deal if you ask me. 

Edited July 8, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

No sign of a heatwave then for the next 16 days! Very disappointing 

It twas a day 16 chart from one model, not to be taken as gospel and in any case there's some summery weather showing well before then, especially from around day 6 into next week!

[Frosty.]

Following a more humid showery blip, especially further north, the ICON 12z shows a strong ridge building in from the west towards the end of this week and lasting into next week. Temperature wise, generally around average so feeling warm, especially in any prolonged sunshine and during the more settled phase which lasts longest further s / se.

Edited July 8, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

The Ukmo 12h shows a nice big anticyclone building in later so it definitely ends on a high notE..

Edited July 8, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Not a good summer so far for the east if the high takes place there, Note that most of this year the east has been lackluster with winds from the North Sea. Even though "Professionals" keep banging on about Above Average temps, they don't take any notice of what it Feels like

You should have left the T+144 chart on, it's better..I'm sure T+168 etc would have been better still, give the high chance to build in properly for goodness sake!!

Edited July 8, 2019 by Jon Snow

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The Ukmo 12h shows a nice big anticyclone building in later so it definitely ends on a high notE..

UKMO looks a lovely run!

I'm not even convinced there would be a breakdown at all for the days following the 144

Away from the UK and southern Europe it all looks a bit meh, which suits me as its usually the other way round.

Edited July 8, 2019 by northwestsnow

[northwestsnow]

GFS operational hardly convinced about an Atlantic breakthrough either !

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not bad at all weather watchers, if your thinking of taking a we break this weekend, consider the UK... Looks pleasently spiffing. A look at the models at day 6 shows strong agreement for a perfectly placed build of pressure. 

Charts... UKMO 

ICON

GEM

GFS

GFS LEGACY.. lovely jubiley

[Frosty.]

Just taking a snapshot at day 10 the GEFS 12z shows some very warm potential with either high pressure or a trough to be in the right position to enable an influx of hot and humid continental air, perhaps a plume.!

Edited July 8, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

The magical "p" word has been uttered!

There's certainly some plumey potential at various timeframes beyond mid July in the GEFS 12z.

Edited July 8, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Not bad at all weather watchers, if your thinking of taking a we break this weekend, consider the UK... Looks pleasently spiffing. A look at the models at day 6 shows strong agreement for a perfectly placed build of pressure. 

Charts... UKMO 

ICON

GEM

GFS

GFS LEGACY.. lovely jubiley

I was just about to post those T144 charts as a round up so you've saved me the trouble!  It does look good at this range, and ECM also very good:

Beyond that, though, the models seem to be predicting a period of 'neither nowt nor summat', you might say.  CFS model has AAM pretty much neutral, so no clear signals from that point of view:

But while we wait this one out, in terms of the longer term direction of travel, there looks to me to be plenty of usable summer weather without being too hot or too wet.  

Edited July 8, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Methuselah]

And now for the 1Z ensembles.

  

  

[Frosty.]

First thing to say about the Ecm 12z operational is that the 850's look good..as in warm!!, it's a changeable run with sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery but there is a window of settled weather from the weekend into early next week thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure but the run nosedives into unsettled days 9 and 10.

Edited July 8, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

34 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I was just about to post those T144 charts as a round up so you've saved me the trouble!  It does look good at this range, and ECM also very good:

Beyond that, though, the models seem to be predicting a period of 'neither nowt nor summat', you might say.  CFS model has AAM pretty much neutral, so no clear signals from that point of view:

But while we wait this one out, in terms of the longer term direction of travel, there looks to me to be plenty of usable summer weather without being too hot or too wet.  

Cheers Mike... Not so sure about ecm at day 9/10, could it be overplaying the low!! Even so, high pressure still close to our shores, even at this stage... Will be an interesting mean. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Ecm mean not to bad.... Not quite as severe with the low pressure that the op put us under in the latter frames...

[Frosty.]

Good news is the Ecm 12z ensemble mean doesn't look as unsettled as the operational later in the run. Matt beat me to it..I'm just too slooooow!

[Mike Poole]

In the light of the ECM T240 mean:

How much faith would you put in this low off the operational same time? 

Not a lot, I would suggest.  This looks to me like a period of high uncertainty where the main models, ensembles, Met Office, and background signals have not much of a clue as to the way forward, so it will be interesting to see how things unfold beyond next weekend.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

No doubt about it, the operational completely lost the plot with that low pressure system over us at day 10...has Mike pointed out, a large degree of uncertainty again beyond 7 days. 

[Guest]

58 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

First thing to say about the Ecm 12z operational is that the 850's look good..as in warm!!, it's a changeable run with sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery but there is a window of settled weather from the weekend into early next week thanks to a strong ridge of high pressure but the run nosedives into unsettled days 9 and 10.

Really, I don’t see any warm 850s, all pretty much completely average with the 10c 850 isotherm never making any real inroads.

Also all the models appear to be positioning the ridge over the weekend slightly further west opening the door for much cooler 850s and a cooler surface flow of the North Sea. 

Output again is distinctly unexciting IMHO. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Really, I don’t see any warm 850s, all pretty much completely average with the 10c 850 isotherm never making any real inroads.

Also all the models appear to be positioning the ridge over the weekend slightly further west opening the door for much cooler 850s and a cooler surface flow of the North Sea. 

Output again is distinctly unexciting IMHO. 

Your just not feeling it... In lengthy sunny spells this weekend.. 23-25c perhaps!! If you think back Chris you was tearing your hair out in early June with the output then, so you have to admit this is so much better!! August still to come yet, and tbh, I feel its going to be a good one... Anyhow here is a set of ensembles to bring you some cheer mate!! Think I may pop there myself for a we break....

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Your just not feeling it... In lengthy sunny spells this weekend.. 23-25c perhaps!! If you think back Chris you was tearing your hair out in early June with the output then, so you have to admit this is so much better!! August still to come yet, and tbh, I feel its going to be a good one... Anyhow here is a set of ensembles to bring you some cheer mate!! Think I may pop there myself for a we break....

Prefer

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

33 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Prefer

 

Strooth....no wonder you get downbeat with the uk conditions when that's the type of heat you like... That's intense, death Valley style.... British rail would never cope with that.... They would say its the wrong kind of heat....

Just to put that into context... 

Its currently 35c there at night... And mid to high 40s tomorrow... 

Edited July 8, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Weather-history]

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Looks great !!

And GFS is now backing away from an Atlantic victory too..

Good start to the day for summer lovers ..

[mb018538]

UKMO is a little bit out on its own with regards to how intensely it develops the high by 144 hours, dragging some very warm air with it too. Other models not quite so keen, but still looking decent through the weekend and early next week. Cricket World Cup final should be a belter at lords on Sunday.