Model output discussion - first hot, thundery plume of the summer

[Methuselah]

The 00Z GEFS ensembles...I like where the control might be headed?

   

   

I do hope the Scandi High is not just a model-blip?

   

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

UKMO is a little bit out on its own with regards to how intensely it develops the high by 144 hours, dragging some very warm air with it too. Other models not quite so keen, but still looking decent through the weekend and early next week. Cricket World Cup final should be a belter at lords on Sunday.

EC follows UKMO...

[mushymanrob]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The 00Z GEFS ensembles...I like where the control might be headed?

   

   

I do hope the Scandi High is not just a model-blip?

   

bib.. why?... that easterly looks overcast to me m8...

[mb018538]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC follows UKMO...

It’s pretty close I’ll agree - surface level pressures are almost the same, but the upper high is much stronger on the ukmo at 144. Both decent though, bit of a breakdown by the middle of the week on ecm but nothing too awful.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

8 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

bib.. why?... that easterly looks overcast to me m8...

Might be right on the coast.. but I highly doubt it inland... 

[northwestsnow]

43 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It’s pretty close I’ll agree - surface level pressures are almost the same, but the upper high is much stronger on the ukmo at 144. Both decent though, bit of a breakdown by the middle of the week on ecm but nothing too awful.

Looks warm and increasingly unstable  thundery potential perhaps.

:-)

[Summer Sun]

This weeks ECM weekly has updated overnight

For the week ahead it's generally around or a bit above average for temperature with a mix on rain above average in parts of the north but below average in the south and west

15th to 21st

Remaining above average temp wise with rainfall not really showing a strong signal for the majority 

22nd to 28th

Temps continue a bit above average but a stronger signal for above average rainfall for all but the far north of Scotland

29th to 4th

Temps continue to be around or a bit above average with above average rain continuing in the north and west but a bit drier the further south and east you are

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO and ECM cut off that low in the Atlantic which allows a much more robust area of high pressure to build over the UK. Certainly a positive development if this is the right way forward. 

In simple terms previous modelling of taking the low eastwards which sheets the ridge away, cutting the system off prevents that sheeting from happening and allows the high to remain in place over the UK. Nothing too hot again but temperatures widely into the mid or high twenties look possible next week if this comes off.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

bib.. why?... that easterly looks overcast to me m8...

certainly will be here north sea fret, but FI, that chart 1st day of summer hols

[Frosty.]

Love the Ecm 0z operational.....better than yesterday's 12z and we are on track for a fine spell from the weekend into next week followed by an increasing chance of thundery showers..my idea of summer!!

 

Edited July 9, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Singularity]

Not much has come of the Indian Ocean tropical interference; the Nino standing wave has more or less counterbalanced it. 

So we have a standoff until further notice, hence the lack of much change in the 'reliable' range of the model output (out to about a week from now) from this pattern of weak ridges and shallow lows glancing off their flanks. The one passing across the N half of the UK on Thu represents the peak of the interference from the IO tropics, before the Nino standing wave gently pushes back and ridging reaches further east again.

Could be one of the longest runs of 'benign' weather I've ever recorded here in the south.

Hints that the Nino standing wave may assert a bit more control starting a week or so from now, promoting ridges across NW Europe and into Scandinavia, and lows west of Iberia occasionally pushing NE to affect the UK. Models tending to diverge from the 'classic' response though, e.g. the usually strong Azores-Scandinavia ridge of the FV3 00z (2018 mk. II?) and the lack of ridge building across mainland Europe in the ECM 00z. The Nino standing wave may need reinforcement from a tropical wave for that, but there's little sign of such a thing at this time.

[danm]

Now that is a cracking chart from the UKMO:

ECM also looking good from Saturday to Wednesday, after that it wants to turn more unsettled. That’s 8+ days away though. 

GFS also looking very good for the weekend and into next week. 

Edited July 9, 2019 by danm

[Frosty.]

Not a bad Ecm 0z ensemble mean, indeed during the more settled spell it's a good mean!!!!!!!

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, Surrey said:

Might be right on the coast.. but I highly doubt it inland... 

not here m8.... an easterly breeze usually brings low stratus, grey days that sometimes urn off in the afternoon. the east mids is prone to that. only 6 years ago in the middle of that heatwave we endured cool grey weekend under north sea fret. clear skied sunny easterlies are rarer then white crimbo's..

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational is quite a changeable run with sunshine and showers, some heavy and thundery being the main theme but a finer spell with less chance of showers moving in for the weekend into early next week before the showers risk increases again. Temperatures look generally close to average which means southern uk largely into the low 20's celsius daily, occasionally closer to mid 20's c for the s / se but scotland looks mostly relatively much cooler, into the mid / upper teens c but there is a warmer phase up north too when temps rise into the low 20's c. 

[Scorcher]

46 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

not here m8.... an easterly breeze usually brings low stratus, grey days that sometimes urn off in the afternoon. the east mids is prone to that. only 6 years ago in the middle of that heatwave we endured cool grey weekend under north sea fret. clear skied sunny easterlies are rarer then white crimbo's..

Yes even here we're not immune to the grey stratus off the North Sea in easterlies, although it often doesn't make it across the Pennines. I remember that weekend you're talking about in July 2013- the temp only made it to the high teens here that weekend (on Sunday 21st). Luckily it warmed up again afterwards.

Edited July 9, 2019 by Scorcher

[knocker]

Five days ago the EPS mean anomaly was thus. Not too much one can say about it but to note a weak trough in the eastern Atlantic, slack low pressure over the Arctic and the not unusual (these days) of the N. Canada/Greenland trough/ridge complex resulting in a relatively benign westerly upper flow across the Atlantic

Bringing this forward to this morning and it's actually not a bad fit, albeit the main features are more in focus which is what you would expect but the period just prior to this denotes the transition from a more amplified pattern as can be seen seen looking at the 2-7 chart

This would portend a move from a fair bit of HP influence to a somewhat more changeable scenario without anything particularly nasty lurking in the woodshed.with temps trending above average but subject to regional variations

Different time scales but last evening's NOAA is in the same ball park

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z there's certainly some very warm / hot potential during the last third of July!

Edited July 9, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

50 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 6z there's certainly some very warm / hot potential during the last third of July!

Yes karl, even though its at a very long time period, about 13 of the 20 ensemble runs have us in either warm or very warm conditions. Petty those charts were at a 14 day period....

[Frosty.]

First out of the 12z blocks we have the ICON which shows a window of fine weather associated with a strong ridge of high pressure at the end of this week / early next week which lasts longest across the SE.

[Frosty.]

2nd out of the blocks we have the ukmo 12h which looks even better than the ICON regarding the potential longevity of the fine spell..stronger looking high!!

Edited July 9, 2019 by Jon Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Looking good at 120hrs with some of the main models so far today. 

ECM

ICON

UKMO

GFS

Ecm was the 0z run, all the others are 12z.

[Methuselah]

Aye peeps...it looks as if the prognosis has got better and better, whilst I've been away on the farm planting 1000 leeks?

GFS 12Z T+150:  

[knocker]

The tropical depression forecast to form in the north of the Gulf of Mexico is creating some interest as it could dump a lot of rain on the southern states

[Methuselah]

There might be a decent spell coming up?