Model Output Discussion - early October

[Jordan S]

Latest rainfall total forecast from the dwd.. 

Very windy this evening too for England and Wales gales likely in exposed places.. 

Dwd Icon.. 

 

Arpege.. 

 

GFS.. 

 

Very mild for the southeast 15-16c likely quite cold north of that rain band just 7-9c.

Edited October 25, 2019 by jordan smith

[shaky]

Much much better from ukmo!!cold and frosty all the way to the end if the run!!also a potential Scandinavian high threatening at 144 hours!!gfs has a stronger high at 144 hours compared to its 06z run!!

[knocker]

The gfs this evening has the major upper trough to the south west become positively tilted under pressure from upstream amplification which initiates the formation of another surface low center west of Ireland

Twenty four hours later the trough deconstructs under said pressure

And then

 

 

Edited October 25, 2019 by knocker

[swfc]

Not a bad 12z GFS looking at the nhp.not a raging PV and cooling down also.autumn weather as expected

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Get ya diaries ready folks.... The 12z threatens a potential snow event with a wrap around of cold air as this deep low pressure transfers East.... Petty its so far away!! Nice idea all the same... Could it come off!!! Do pigs fly?? Well judging by the price of bacon, it wouldn't suprise me!

[Methuselah]

Looks a tad marginal to me, Matt...But you never know!

   

[knocker]

And looking quite unsettled in the 5-10 period with quite a strong westerly upper flow until reaching the trough in the east, with temps a tad below average but quite likely some marked latitudinal variations with a tricky surface analysis

Edited October 25, 2019 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

And looking quite unsettled in the 5-10 period with quite a strong westerly upper flow until reaching the trough in the east, with temps a tad below average but quite likely some marked latitudinal variations with a tricky surface analysis

Might be an interesting pattern for the Scottish mountains ...

 

[knocker]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Might be an interesting pattern for the Scottish mountains ...

 

Frankly the next 24 hours might be quite interesting if you are not out in it

[northwestsnow]

Just now, knocker said:

Frankly the next 24 hours might be quite interesting if you are not out in it

Very true, i have been out in it and i think drowned rat springs to mind.

UKMO offers some relief from the rain, so with that in mind i sincerely hope it is on the right path..

[knocker]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Very true, i have been out in it and i think drowned rat springs to mind.

UKMO offers some relief from the rain, so with that in mind i sincerely hope it is on the right path..

I meant gales force winds and snow on the mountains of Scotland

[Don]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Get ya diaries ready folks.... The 12z threatens a potential snow event with a wrap around of cold air as this deep low pressure transfers East.... Petty its so far away!! Nice idea all the same... Could it come off!!! Do pigs fly?? Well judging by the price of bacon, it wouldn't suprise me!

If that shows at 24 hours, then my big ears will stick up!  In the meantime, good for a laugh!

[Mr Frost]

31 minutes ago, knocker said:

I meant gales force winds and snow on the mountains of Scotland

Ah but some of us love to be out in it - planned a nighttime hike through the Arrochar Alps tomorrow (Beinn Ime 1,011 meters - just waiting on my girlfriend giving me the all clear to go. )

Bit of an adventure/challenge (Have done the route/know the path very well so not high risk plus it will feel very festive. )

Speaking of feeling festive - some cold/frosty mornings/nights coming up for quite a few of us next week. (Latest GFS for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday morning)

Perfect Autumn weather - what’s not to love? 

Have a good weekend everyone! 

Edited October 25, 2019 by Mr Frost

[knocker]

The position of the frontal wave at t120 with this evening's ecm

And the movement over the next 24 hours

Edited October 25, 2019 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

EC sending quite a bit of energy into the southern arm of the jet this evening. .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Know one thing, that FAX chart way too progressive, no way will the front be that far east at midday tomorrow, will be wet all day tomorrow, not just the morning

[Frosty.]

There's certainly some wintry interest, especially longer term on the GEFS 12z ranging from potential Arctic shots to scandi high's and a possible Beasterly...lots to keep an eye on..or rather 2 eyes on!!

Edited October 25, 2019 by JON SNOW

[booferking]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC sending quite a bit of energy into the southern arm of the jet this evening. .

MJO phase 2 Nov not a bad match lots of energy into Southern arm diving jet, currently in phase 2 now but moves into cycle of death..

[Methuselah]

Good to see that the 12Z Operational is not out of step with the GEFS ensembles, temperature-wise:

   

   

Maybe no whiteouts, away from hills and mountains, but a good spell of autumnal Autumn weather is on the cards!

[Mapantz]

24 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Know one thing, that FAX chart way too progressive, no way will the front be that far east at midday tomorrow, will be wet all day tomorrow, not just the morning

UKV seems to agree with the FAX.

[feb1991blizzard]

Yes, certainly won't rain all day, huge chunk cleared by 4pm on UKV.

Old Trafford Lancashire C.C.C. weather forecast map - Met Office

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office 5 day weather forecast map for Old Trafford Lancashire C.C.C. including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind speed, cloud, and pressure.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

not a bad chart .

this current rain band seems a bit further south than first thought.

Edited October 25, 2019 by MR EXTREMES

[Jordan S]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks a tad marginal to me, Matt...But you never know!

   

Seems like the air will be too mixed out and modified for anything other than marginal like you say but nice to see charts like that atm

Edited October 25, 2019 by jordan smith

[Met4Cast]

The ECM control has gone absolutely insane on the 12z run!!

 

The clusters are going to be interesting later..

[Jordan S]

ECM progressively more unsettled come day 10 with high pressure trying to build over Scandinavia Gem very similar by day 10 although less progressive with the Atlantic but similar pattern nevertheless. We'll see. 

Edited October 25, 2019 by jordan smith