Model output discussion - into Christmas

[Paul]

Christmas is coming, the goose is getting fat, time for a fresh thread for model chat. 

As ever please keep the discussion in here to the models. 

For non model related chat and banter, please use the Winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

Not a fan of the cold hunting rollercoaster at this time of year? There's a new thread for you to use.
This one is a space for those who perhaps don't enjoy the rollercoaster ride that the model discussion becomes in Winter, and would prefer to chat about the current and upcoming weather in a quieter, maybe less cold slanted discussion. 

If that's you, please head here:
Current and future weather - nowcasting, models and teleconnections - early Winter

Interested in teleconnections and their impacts?
Head to the teleconnections discussion

If you're wanting to learn more about the weather and meteorology, it's definitely worth taking a look at our new Learning and Research area.

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[Skullzrulerz]

Don't see any of the excitement at the moment because it's simply too far out (new year) personnely I think some are getting a bit much over one run 

Prepare for the immediate disappointed 

[Dennis]

Latest AO and NAO forecast  

 

for an atlantic block i like the AO ideas

 

 

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Don't see any of the excitement at the moment because it's simply too far out (new year) personnely I think some are getting a bit much over one run 

Prepare for the immediate disappointed 

Whats there to be disappointed about its only the weather and we're weather enthusiasts who love discussion the weather.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Thanks to Paul for the new thread.... So now we have a clean bill of health for a new cold chase... I'm quite liking some of the 6z ensembles from GFS, at last we see cold pools gathering out East.... Could we be in the game come the turn of the New Year!!! I sincerely hope so folks. 

[Ali1977]

28 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Latest AO and NAO forecast  

 

for an atlantic block i like the AO ideas

 

 

 An “into Christmas “ new forum page, and an NAO/AO forecast like these, everyone on here would’ve taken that a month ago wouldn’t they??

Unfortunately nothing really substantive to glean confidence from just yet, other than a good handful of GEFS ENS . Let’s hope this aft and evening start the journey to a New Years freeze begins !!  
PS - John Hammond has mentioned “possibly” much colder just after Xmas, and things do look quite promising with regards a block - many would take a dry period, coldies just need it north of the U.K.!! 

Edited December 17, 2019 by Ali1977

[swfc-ocs]

22 minutes ago, booferking said:

Whats there to be disappointed about its only the weather and we're weather enthusiasts who love discussion the weather.

Yes it will do what it does

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 11/12/2019 at 20:46, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

With phase 2 MJO conditions continuing the cool / cold zonality is likely to continue too, still some snowfall chances as we head over the next few days (especially over higher ground but possibly some wintry conditions in a few lower spots too) has been plenty of wintry showers across Scotland today and higher areas like Braemar and Cairngorms have had some snowfall.

Models still toying with the idea of higher pressure development around Christmas time (as some others have also mentioned) lots more runs needed before any confidence in this and exact positioning will be key should it develop, some from tonight's GEM ensembles.

 

 

On 07/12/2019 at 20:26, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

This is not a forecast purely just something worth mentioning should conditions head that way. MJO signals with some confusion ATM however some manage to squeeze into phase 3 conditions which are suggestive of higher pressure either through the UK or an outside chance of higher pressure over Scandinavia, possibly why some of the ensembles have been hinting at this in outer reaches (towards Christmas)    note that the last chart focusing the heights over scandinavia is medium - low reliability.  

some from the GEM ensembles tonight hinting toward that    

Has been further snowfall in areas of the UK (see my recent posts in the Scotland thread and also the snow and ice twitter thread) mainly on high ground although some lower areas in the north of Scotland saw some snowfall yesterday, Overall a good example of what a cool / cold zonality setup can deliver albeit just a bit unlucky not to get the best setup to include more lower areas.

Well after a 10 day period in phase 2 the MJO has now moved into phase 3 so moving forward this is where my attention is focusing (will need to keep monitoring as it may be a brief spell in phase 3 before entering COD and then uncertainty about the next phase(s) ) again the GEM ensembles highlight the options that may arise (questions will be how quickly phase 3 feedback is seen) something akin to this would be the jackpot outcome      other option(s) looks to be higher pressure through UK up toward Scandinavia      certainly could be an interesting spell of model watching coming up.   

[SMU]

I think we have seen a good couple of days modelling some sort of pressure build to support a continental / NE flow

What I would like to see over the next 24-36 hours is some consolidation of where the models see the high pressure ridging to & how it gets there- We have lots of trigger happy pressure builds so far from the suites but not much consistency ...

Also what sort of flow & upper air is going to come out of Norway & Finland at day 6-8

Warsaw ENS are a good sign!

Edited December 17, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Ali1977]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think we have seen a good couple of days modelling some sort of pressure build to support a continental / NE flow

What I would like to say over the next 24-36 hours is some consolidation of where the models see the high pressure ridging to & how it gets there- We have lots of trigger happy pressure builds so far from the suites but not much consistency ...

Also what sort of flow & upper air is going to come out of Norway & Finland at day 6-8

Warsaw ENS are a good sign!

Latest METO suggests a drier period around Xmas then more unsettled from the West more likely - GLOSEA not see any colder scenario just yet. Would this suggest too much PV which Prevents a sustainable block? 

[fromey]

I can imagine this is a good thing?

i assume this is what some models are hinting at (GFS etc)

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Latest METO suggests a drier period around Xmas then more unsettled from the West more likely - GLOSEA not see any colder scenario just yet. Would this suggest too much PV which Prevents a sustainable block? 

‘Low confidence”  if the high happens then the most likely for them is for it not to go where we would wish but low confidence is the key here. We look for trends in future runs. They’re backing the form horse for now but outsiders come in from time to time.

Edited December 17, 2019 by That ECM

[Dennis]

1 minute ago, fromey said:

I can imagine this is a good thing?

i assume this is what some models are hinting at (GFS etc)

yes thats how the ideas are at the moment -and its just starting - hope to all of you a nice forum time here

[shaky]

29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I think we have seen a good couple of days modelling some sort of pressure build to support a continental / NE flow

What I would like to see over the next 24-36 hours is some consolidation of where the models see the high pressure ridging to & how it gets there- We have lots of trigger happy pressure builds so far from the suites but not much consistency ...

Also what sort of flow & upper air is going to come out of Norway & Finland at day 6-8

Warsaw ENS are a good sign!

Also looked like the 06z was a warm outlier for warsaw so thats even better news!!

[SMU]

ICON seems to fit in with current modelling 

180 sees the ridge aligned to the NE

 

24 minutes ago, shaky said:

Also looked like the 06z was a warm outlier for warsaw so thats even better news!!

Yes mate  

UKMO looking very nice at 120!

[Mucka]

UKMO building strong Arctic/Russian blocking but can we bring it far enough West to affect us post Xmas?

 

 

 

Edited December 17, 2019 by Mucka

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON seems to fit in with current modelling 

180 sees the ridge aligned to the NE

 

Yes mate  

UKMO looking very nice at 120!

Hmmm something seems to be a foot here!!all of a sudden the deep lows that were forecast by the gfs for end of next weeek are gone and we are are left in a cold col situation right across the uk!!evaporative cooling/snow maybe for some?

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

UKMO building strong Arctic/Russian blocking but can we bring it far enough West to affect us?

 

 

 

I'm pretty sure the ICON came out with something similar to that a couple days ago?

[Ali1977]

Heights at T180 much weaker to our N and NE, should help with any ridge building opportunities later into the run. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Really poor Op!!

[SLEETY]

Hopeless gfs run ,if your looking  for cold.Could not be more different  than the 06 run if it tried.

 

Next!

Edited December 17, 2019 by SLEETY

[Tim Bland]

GFS hasn’t got a scooby past day 7. Look at the difference over Greenland in FI between 06z and 12z. It goes from 1035mb to 995mb! £10 says it’s a mild outlier

[IDO]

Really a poor direction of travel on the GFS op today with the trend to flatten FI out, as if the previous amplified runs never existed.

D12: 

Yesterday we had Pacific and Atlantic ridges and we lost the Pacific ridge this morning and now the Atlantic ridge is an Iberian high, with a raging tPV!

Thankfully, it is FI on the GFS, but ATM, I would be wary of any predictions for late December. In the interim rain again the watchword.

[Dennis]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Hopeless gfs run ,if your looking  for cold.Could not be more difference than the 06 run if it tried.

 

Next!

that seems normal in all the runs i saw in all the years - some is very strange about it

Edited December 17, 2019 by Dennis

[seabreeze86]

GEM looks promising at 192hrs and a lovely Christmas morning with frost and light winds