Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[Gray-Wolf]

With record SST's logged at the end of Summer in the Southern Hemisphere I have to wonder how our 'land heavy' Northern Hemisphere will fare by it's 'Summers End'?

Though the Oceans temps will fall away over that period the ability for rapid warming of land surfaces could see them push the average global temps toward record temps

As I'd noted in the E.N.S.O. thread the flip of the PMO positive in 2014 now sees swathes of the Pacific pumping heat into the air above while the drive for 'clean air' across Asia has seen the 'Asian Brown cloud' reducing year on year (allowing more of the energy available at the top of our Atmosphere to make it to the surface and 're-radiation' in the infra-red?)

So more of the potential GHG forcing available will be realised (in 2005 NASA told us up to 50% of potential warming was being lost to 'Global Dumming'?) & global temps will respond.....

[Methuselah]

And now there's dengue fever in France! Nothing to do with shifting climate zones, of course. So, I guess mosquito populations must be in on the 'conspiracy', eh? How many more warnings do we need?

https://www.itv.com/news/2023-04-14/uk-woman-infected-with-dengue-fever-on-france-holiday#:~:text=A 44-year-old woman,not require further medical treatment.

[Gray-Wolf]

Here's what Jen Francis thinks of the coming Nino....

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Here we go!.....I wonder how any Nino will 'tweak' such?

Extreme heat scorches Asia, affecting at least a third of the world’s population - The Verge

WWW.THEVERGE.COM

---

A massive heatwave is shattering records across the continent.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Anyone got any ideas why our SST's should be doing what they're doing? (& not falling away as all other years do around now?)

Climate Reanalyzer

CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG

 

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Anyone got any ideas why our SST's should be doing what they're doing? (& not falling away as all other years do around now?)

Climate Reanalyzer

CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG

 

I'm guessing here, Ian, but after so many warm winters and summers at least some of the excess heat must be being stored deeper down in the oceans than was once the case. It has to have gone somewhere... Right? 

[Gray-Wolf]

34 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

I'm guessing here, Ian, but after so many warm winters and summers at least some of the excess heat must be being stored deeper down in the oceans than was once the case. It has to have gone somewhere... Right? 

Through the noughties, we were constantly told that heat was being buried in the upper layers of the Pacific

I believe I'm right in thinking this was a function of the 'Negative phase' of the 'Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation'?

Since 2014 it has been in its 'Positve Phase' releasing heat into the atmosphere above?

I think the Phases last from 15 to 30 years?

If what we're seeing in that plot is the impact of ENSO now being neutral (not the negative pull of La Nina?) then we'll be in for a hot one if El Nino does form up this coming Summer!

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Through the noughties, we were constantly told that heat was being buried in the upper layers of the Pacific

I believe I'm right in thinking this was a function of the 'Negative phase' of the 'Pacific Multidecadal Oscillation'?

Since 2014 it has been in its 'Positve Phase' releasing heat into the atmosphere above?

I think the Phases last from 15 to 30 years?

If what we're seeing in that plot is the impact of ENSO now being neutral (not the negative pull of La Nina?) then we'll be in for a hot one if El Nino does form up this coming Summer!

I remember the 1960s, 70s and 80s winters when East Anglia got snowed in whenever Arctic air arrived on a north or northeasterly wind; but, alas, today (apart from one day a year- usually in March!) this rarely happens. So, the North Sea must have a deeper reservoir of warm water than it used to have. In addition, the shrinking Arctic ice sheet and an ever-lengthening sea track and the outcome ought to be obvious. 

I can't be sure; but even with an onshore wind, we reached 38-39C last July. Now add to that, the effects of a developing El Nino.

[sundog]

There is a chance that later this week spain could record its first 40c during the month of April.  Another unwanted heat record to add to the ever growing list..........

[ITSY]

Not sure if this is the right thread but this is really interesting and suggests the recent historic anomalies we’ve seen - together with the current record breaking warmth of the North Atlantic basin - is about to worsen 

[Methuselah]

Earth reaches hottest day ever recorded 4 days in a row - ABC News

ABCNEWS.GO.COM

---

The planet reached the highest temperature ever recorded by human-made instruments during one of America's most quintessential summer holidays.

And that at the time we're only just exiting a multi-year La Nina? 

Edited July 7, 2023 by Methuselah

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[daz_4]

Not a single day goes by without seeing crazy flash floods, storms, heatwaves etc. We have record high ocean temp, 2m temp, record low global sea ice and yet we are acting like nothing is going on. Do we need a widespread wet-bulb temperature event or collapse of our food chain to wake us up? Because by then it will be really late (it's late now already).

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by matty40s

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

...and even the Canaries, surrounded by the Atlantic....

 

Edited July 14, 2023 by matty40s

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[The PIT]

Looks like the Tonga eruption is having an effect after all. Quietly forgotten about as it doesn't fit the narrative but was expected to push the climate to the 1.5C breach point.

Could see several years like this.

Hunga Tonga eruption: the most remarkable climatic event in the last three decades

EARTHENVIRONMENTCOMMUNITY.NATURE.COM

---

Major volcanic eruptions are well known drivers of sudden climate change. The effect of the recent major eruption of Hunga Tonga submarine volcano on 15 January 2022 may be very different from that of previous...

 

Edited July 16, 2023 by The PIT

[matty40s]

 

[The PIT]

Good old Tonga making a real impact.