Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[matty40s]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Good old Tonga making a real impact.

Probably for years to come.

[The PIT]

15 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Probably for years to come.

I think the opinon is four to five years but who really knows.

As I suspected the effect of the eruption is being ignored funny how the effects of a major green house effect isn't been taken into consideration.

Edited July 22, 2023 by The PIT

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, matty40s said:

Probably for years to come.

But at least the dinosaurs didn't cause their own extinction. Unlike one species (Homo sapiens dimwitticus) I could name: 

 

[matty40s]

Around 2,000 penguins wash up dead on Uruguay coast

WWW.FRANCE24.COM

---

Around 2,000 penguins have appeared dead on the coast of eastern Uruguay in the last 10 days, and the cause, which does not appear to be avian influenza, remains a mystery, authorities said.

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

On 16/07/2023 at 07:14, The PIT said:

Looks like the Tonga eruption is having an effect after all. Quietly forgotten about as it doesn't fit the narrative but was expected to push the climate to the 1.5C breach point.

Could see several years like this.

 

[SnowBear]

2 hours ago, matty40s said:

 

This is actually very interesting. Normally we think of volcanic activity having a cooling effect due to ash and aerosols. 

Tonga was a huge explosion which forced mainly water vapour very very high into the atmosphere, and as we know, water vapour can be a greenhouse gas. 

So this, combined with the big reduction in particle pollution from shipping too which is allowing more sunlight to reach the surface, I think combined with the El Nino this year has had effects which we may not have foreseen.

[The PIT]

Ouch or should it be burnt to a cinder.

Now when this clears out it'll be interesting too see if the tipping point does actually exsist or not

 

Just now, SnowBear said:

This is actually very interesting. Normally we think of volcanic activity having a cooling effect due to ash and aerosols. 

Tonga was a huge explosion which forced mainly water vapour very very high into the atmosphere, and as we know, water vapour can be a greenhouse gas. 

So this, combined with the big reduction in particle pollution from shipping too which is allowing more sunlight to reach the surface, I think combined with the El Nino this year has had effects which we may not have foreseen.

Its the inverse of the year without a summer except it maybe several years without a winter.

[Methuselah]

And, what about the human tipping point; the time when Joe and Joanna Public decide they've had enough of all the posturing by world leaders? But, back to reality: sometime during the next 50 years or so, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet will cause a pulse-like rise in sea level. Yet more millions of souls will be on the move! 

[The PIT]

2 hours ago, Methuselah said:

And, what about the human tipping point; the time when Joe and Joanna Public decide they've had enough of all the posturing by world leaders? But, back to reality: sometime during the next 50 years or so, the melting of the Greenland ice sheet will cause a pulse-like rise in sea level. Yet more millions of souls will be on the move! 

The scientists are now saying it's been reached anyway.

[matty40s]

 

[SnowBear]

Article here in that water vapour injection into the atmosphere from the Tonga volcano. 

Increasing the stratospheric water vapour by 10-15% is quite significant. 

One thing I haven't seen yet is a study on how the explosion and shock waves effected the oceans. I would imagine a series of shock waves and even sub-surface "tsunamis" may have disturbed even deeper waters. The shock wave reverberated around the world a number of times in the atmosphere and I would assume this would have been repeated in the oceans too. 

Was that enough to overturn some deeper waters? Has it altered, even temporarily, some of the circulation systems hence why we are seeing anomalies this year in the North Atlantic? 

Tonga Eruption May Temporarily Push Earth Closer to 1.5°C of Warming - Eos

EOS.ORG

---

The underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai sent megatons of water vapor into the stratosphere, contributing to an increase in global warming over the next 5 years.

 

[matty40s]

 

[The PIT]

10 hours ago, SnowBear said:

Article here in that water vapour injection into the atmosphere from the Tonga volcano. 

Increasing the stratospheric water vapour by 10-15% is quite significant. 

One thing I haven't seen yet is a study on how the explosion and shock waves effected the oceans. I would imagine a series of shock waves and even sub-surface "tsunamis" may have disturbed even deeper waters. The shock wave reverberated around the world a number of times in the atmosphere and I would assume this would have been repeated in the oceans too. 

Was that enough to overturn some deeper waters? Has it altered, even temporarily, some of the circulation systems hence why we are seeing anomalies this year in the North Atlantic? 

Tonga Eruption May Temporarily Push Earth Closer to 1.5°C of Warming - Eos

EOS.ORG

---

The underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai sent megatons of water vapor into the stratosphere, contributing to an increase in global warming over the next 5 years.

 

Well if it does push us to the 1.5C limit and the effects wear off and everything cools down I guess that means 1.5C isn't  a point of no return.

[SnowBear]

24 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well if it does push us to the 1.5C limit and the effects wear off and everything cools down I guess that means 1.5C isn't  a point of no return.

Does seem to possibly be an unexpected experiment initiated by nature. 

What it would mean is we need to look much more closely to other mechanisms besides just CO², especially if they can have large effects in a short space of time like we are possibly seeing this year. 

[Greyhound81]

6 hours ago, SnowBear said:

Does seem to possibly be an unexpected experiment initiated by nature. 

What it would mean is we need to look much more closely to other mechanisms besides just CO², especially if they can have large effects in a short space of time like we are possibly seeing this year. 

It has been mentioned on another climate forum that no extra water vapor is being recorded in the lower stratosphere as monitered by the UAH satellite (balloon data).  If that is the case, then the Tonga volcano eruption cannot be having an effect on global temperatures just yet.

Also a press release from NASA mentioned that it could take 2-3 years before the eruption causes global temperatures to rise, and even then it might not be noticable above statistical noise.  The accompanying cooling particles would have to dissipate before it can cause any warming.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiSh57hhKuAAxUbUkEAHaU2CzwQFnoECCUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fclimate-environment%2F2022%2F08%2F05%2Fvolcano-eruption-tonga-record-climate%2F&usg=AOvVaw0qqrAkdb6oyneeMM76yjfi&opi=89978449

 

[Blessed Weather]

New research published in Nature Communications yesterday, 25th July 2023:

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Abstract:
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.

The full paper is available in Nature Communications. You can also find other research papers and articles on the AMOC in the Netweather Learning & Research section here.

[richie3846]

21 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

New research published in Nature Communications yesterday, 25th July 2023:

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Abstract:
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.

The full paper is available in Nature Communications. You can also find other research papers and articles on the AMOC in the Netweather Learning & Research section here.

Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests | Climate crisis | The Guardian

WWW.GOOGLE.COM

---

A collapse would bring catastrophic climate impacts but scientists disagree over the new analysis

A balanced read from the Guardian here, highlighting the disagreements amongst the scientists themselves. 

Climate change is settled science? It is most definitely not!

[richie3846]

26 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

New research published in Nature Communications yesterday, 25th July 2023:

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
Abstract:
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the climate system and a future collapse would have severe impacts on the climate in the North Atlantic region. In recent years weakening in circulation has been reported, but assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model simulations suggest that a full collapse is unlikely within the 21st century. Tipping to an undesired state in the climate is, however, a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions based on observations rely on detecting early-warning signals, primarily an increase in variance (loss of resilience) and increased autocorrelation (critical slowing down), which have recently been reported for the AMOC. Here we provide statistical significance and data-driven estimators for the time of tipping. We estimate a collapse of the AMOC to occur around mid-century under the current scenario of future emissions.

The full paper is available in Nature Communications. You can also find other research papers and articles on the AMOC in the Netweather Learning & Research section here.

To add further context to this startling publication, we have some views on the matter:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-paper-warning-of-a-collapse-of-the-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation/

[Blessed Weather]

22 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

To add further context to this startling publication, we have some views on the matter:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-paper-warning-of-a-collapse-of-the-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation/

Thanks. Very interesting to read the views of fellow scientists. The vast majority of comments seem positive/supportive about the paper's methodology and overall conclusions, but as you say above it's not a settled science and the big uncertainty centres around timing (of tipping point) and impact. The authors were honest enough to acknowledge the uncertainties in the 'discussions' section but I thought made a very good point with the accompanying statement that "......given the importance of the AMOC for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear indicators of an imminent collapse."

[SnowBear]

9 hours ago, Greyhound81 said:

It has been mentioned on another climate forum that no extra water vapor is being recorded in the lower stratosphere as monitered by the UAH satellite (balloon data).  If that is the case, then the Tonga volcano eruption cannot be having an effect on global temperatures just yet.

Also a press release from NASA mentioned that it could take 2-3 years before the eruption causes global temperatures to rise, and even then it might not be noticable above statistical noise.  The accompanying cooling particles would have to dissipate before it can cause any warming.

 

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiSh57hhKuAAxUbUkEAHaU2CzwQFnoECCUQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fclimate-environment%2F2022%2F08%2F05%2Fvolcano-eruption-tonga-record-climate%2F&usg=AOvVaw0qqrAkdb6oyneeMM76yjfi&opi=89978449

 

There is an awful lot of "we don't knows" in that article. As Tonga is an unprecedented event, we just don't know for sure how it's going to effect the chemistry of the stratosphere and ultimately the climate, if at all. Unfortunately it's something we won't know for sure for some years yet. 

[richie3846]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Thanks. Very interesting to read the views of fellow scientists. The vast majority of comments seem positive/supportive about the paper's methodology and overall conclusions, but as you say above it's not a settled science and the big uncertainty centres around timing (of tipping point) and impact. The authors were honest enough to acknowledge the uncertainties in the 'discussions' section but I thought made a very good point with the accompanying statement that "......given the importance of the AMOC for the climate system, we ought not to ignore such clear indicators of an imminent collapse."

It's a difficult one, because until something happens, or becomes so obvious it is about to happen, I suspect there's little that can be done in preparation. A fast collapse may place us in a protracted emergency situation, but as scientists mention in the responses, there are a lot of other currents and factors which may dilute any such collapse. 

From a UK perspective, I don't believe there is another country which would be impacted more. The warm Gulf Stream is what our country is built upon in essence. Our latitude certainly isn't favourable without that flow. Nobody can possibly know what an ex-Gulf climate may look like, but we can be sure it'll be more challenging than our current temperate climate. 

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

It's a difficult one, because until something happens, or becomes so obvious it is about to happen, I suspect there's little that can be done in preparation. A fast collapse may place us in a protracted emergency situation, but as scientists mention in the responses, there are a lot of other currents and factors which may dilute any such collapse. 

From a UK perspective, I don't believe there is another country which would be impacted more. The warm Gulf Stream is what our country is built upon in essence. Our latitude certainly isn't favourable without that flow. Nobody can possibly know what an ex-Gulf climate may look like, but we can be sure it'll be more challenging than our current temperate climate. 

I think one can guess at least one consequence of the AMOC's collapse: northwestern parts of Europe would be more prone to both deep winter coldwaves and more intense summer heatwaves than is currently the case? 

Definitely one to watch!

[Downburst]

10 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

I think one can guess at least one consequence of the AMOC's collapse: northwestern parts of Europe would be more prone to both deep winter coldwaves and more intense summer heatwaves than is currently the case? 

Definitely one to watch!

And where would the Jet Stream be? I mean what kind of pressure pattern would this be. Would we have a very large polar vortex enlarge in winter and the polar front move much closer to here. Absulte nightmare thoughts on this one to be honest. 

Recent summary report of Irelands 30 year 1960 to 1990 and 1990 to 2020 comparison.  Mean Temps increase 7.6% and Rainfall mean is an  increase 7%. http:// https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/93cbad5530054f58a6246a44920aa3f3