Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[Mike Poole]

Is 2023 going to prove to be some kind of tipping point?

I ask, because when I saw this chart this morning, I nearly spat my breakfast out:

The full article is here:

Ocean heat record broken, with grim implications for the planet

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The oceans are a vital regulator for the climate and our weather but are rapidly heating up.

What is concerning is not that the ocean heat record has been broken by a smidgen of a degree Celsius, it is the fact that this year it has completely gone off on one, compared to all other years in the chart!  There are outliers, and then there are outliers.  You’d imagine the record would be totally smashed by next March, when this measure naturally peaks in year.  

Does anyone know what is going on with the sea surface temperatures?  We have noted earlier in the year, very high SSTs locally, they have dissipated since the poor weather in July.  It can’t really be down to El Niño, yet, as that is just beginning - and likely to raise SSTs further over the course of the next year.  Worrying!

[SnowBear]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Is 2023 going to prove to be some kind of tipping point?

I ask, because when I saw this chart this morning, I nearly spat my breakfast out:

The full article is here:

Ocean heat record broken, with grim implications for the planet

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The oceans are a vital regulator for the climate and our weather but are rapidly heating up.

What is concerning is not that the ocean heat record has been broken by a smidgen of a degree Celsius, it is the fact that this year it has completely gone off on one, compared to all other years in the chart!  There are outliers, and then there are outliers.  You’d imagine the record would be totally smashed by next March, when this measure naturally peaks in year.  

Does anyone know what is going on with the sea surface temperatures?  We have noted earlier in the year, very high SSTs locally, they have dissipated since the poor weather in July.  It can’t really be down to El Niño, yet, as that is just beginning - and likely to raise SSTs further over the course of the next year.  Worrying!

I don't know Mike, but I don't think what we are seeing this year is down to us, at least if we are it's a smaller part than its currently thought. 

The climate has been relatively benign for a very long time now, most of recorded history anyway but in the more distant past the climate has changed and quite quickly. 

I don't think the biggest driver is CO², I think it's water. We only have to see the difference in winter between a clear sky and temperatures plummet and when we have cloud and it keeps the temperatures mild, the deeper that cloud layer the more insulating it is. 

Now although main stream media is focusing on heat, they are almost completely ignoring the huge rainfall levels elsewhere, in China, Japan, the US and to certain extent us here in the UK. 

On Kirkcaldy's other thread the latest is talking about the extreme depth of the cloud layer and saturation of almost tropical proportions outside the tropic regions. 

The only thing in the last two years to have been able to inject that amount of water into the atmosphere is the Tonga volcano. 

It doesn't totally explain the sea surface temperatures, because I think that's another area, which is although somewhat effected by us, I think is also going though a natural change on a cycle probay longer than what we have yet to record or even understand. 

We are into fluid mechanics and chaos theories here and they can be for long periods stable, but over time become unstable and stabilise again. 

We in no way fully understand the chemistry of the stratosphere and mesosphere either. 

Humans being humans try to put things in boxes and say we understand, even to the point of ruling out other possibilities, I think that's naive and we have a huge amount to learn still. 

Edited August 4, 2023 by SnowBear
Spelling

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

I don't know Mike, but I don't think what we are seeing this year is down to us, at least if we are it's a smaller part than its currently thought. 

The climate has been relatively benign for a very long time now, most of recorded history anyway but in the more distant past the climate has changed and quite quickly. 

I don't think the biggest driver is CO², I think it's water. We only have to see the difference in winter between a clear sky and temperatures plummet and when we have cloud and it keeps the temperatures mild, the deeper that cloud layer the more insulating it is. 

Now although main stream media is focusing on heat, they are almost completely ignoring the huge rainfall levels elsewhere, in China, Japan, the US and to certain extent us here in the UK. 

On Kirkcaldy's other thread the latest is talking about the extreme depth of the cloud layer and saturation of almost tropical proportions outside the tropic regions. 

The only thing in the last two years to have been able to inject that amount of water into the atmosphere is the Tonga volcano. 

It doesn't totally explain the sea surface temperatures, because I think that's another area, which is although somewhat effected by us, I think is also going though a natural change on a cycle probay longer than what we have yet to record or even understand. 

We are into fluid mechanics and chaos theories here and they can be for long periods stable, but over time become unstable and stabilise again. 

We in no way fully understand the chemistry of the stratosphere and mesosphere either. 

Humans being humans try to put things in boxes and say we understand, even to the point of ruling out other possibilities, I think that's naive and we have a huge amount to learn still. 

I don't know, no one does, but what everyone can see if looking, something is very wrong at the moment, could it be the volcano, probably, although other big eruptions have caused cooling, but agree that every eruption is different. Could it be us, well I personally wouldn't say no. We definitely have had at least some influence. There's also probably a number of factors not even mentioned yet, that someone will post. I would say it's a mixture of everything. 

[Ross90]

'Cleaner' ships, Tonga volcano, el nino, climate change... its probably a combination of things. The fact that it's such an outlier this year pretty much rules out climate change as the main reason as that would only account for gradual increases year on year.

[Methuselah]

Just now, Ross90 said:

'Cleaner' ships, Tonga volcano, el nino, climate change... its probably a combination of things. The fact that it's such an outlier this year pretty much rules out climate change as the main reason as that would only account for gradual increases year on year.

Not, should we have reached a tipping point, it doesn't.

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Methuselah said:

Not, should we have reached a tipping point, it doesn't.

Yep have my fingers very crossed right now, this is just an anomaly . I hope thing are not running out of control, don't mean our control, mean the planets.

[SnowBear]

10 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Not, should we have reached a tipping point, it doesn't.

If, there is a tipping point? It isn't certain until we see one. To me it seems Mother Nature is showing her hand this year and just how powerful she is. What does need to happen is humans need to just shut up and maybe not be so know it all, to watch, listen and learn. 

As with the pandemic, she is possibly teaching us a lesson, will anyone take any notice? 

[alexisj9]

5 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

If, there is a tipping point? It isn't certain until we see one. To me it seems Mother Nature is showing her hand this year and just how powerful she is. What does need to happen is humans need to just shut up and maybe not be so know it all, to watch, listen and learn. 

As with the pandemic, she is possibly teaching us a lesson, will anyone take any notice? 

I agree with you about the pandemic and unfortunately expect some more stuff like that, guess we'll see later on what this ocean anomaly means for us and the planet as a whole.

[Mixer 85]

Are these abnormally high sea surface temperatures occurring quite widespread or in locations that have had dominant high pressure systems preventing deep layer mixing and overturning along with less cloud cover. Given that patterns are quite stuck currently, might this be a factor?

[Downburst]

11 minutes ago, Mixer 85 said:

Are these abnormally high sea surface temperatures occurring quite widespread or in locations that have had dominant high pressure systems preventing deep layer mixing and overturning along with less cloud cover. Given that patterns are quite stuck currently, might this be a factor?

Yes, that may well be a factor. It seems likely the extraordinary heat in the seas during June around here, constant high pressure. Then we had the stuck pattern in the northern hemisphere for about 6 weeks. Will be interesting to see the explanation which I expect should be forthcoming. For me that reduced sulphur from shipping catches my interest. Is it coincidental this is happening just as the reduced particles in the shipping lanes. I mean 8 Billion people now buying all the crap we do, crazy shipping increases as mass production moved to the far east. SO much in your house or office came by ship that didn't 30 to 40 years ago. Take that pollution out of the lower atmosphere and it is a big change. Critical we find out.

[SnowBear]

54 minutes ago, Downburst said:

Yes, that may well be a factor. It seems likely the extraordinary heat in the seas during June around here, constant high pressure. Then we had the stuck pattern in the northern hemisphere for about 6 weeks. Will be interesting to see the explanation which I expect should be forthcoming. For me that reduced sulphur from shipping catches my interest. Is it coincidental this is happening just as the reduced particles in the shipping lanes. I mean 8 Billion people now buying all the crap we do, crazy shipping increases as mass production moved to the far east. SO much in your house or office came by ship that didn't 30 to 40 years ago. Take that pollution out of the lower atmosphere and it is a big change. Critical we find out.

Thing is, there has always been a certain level of "pollution" in the atmosphere, particles from wildfires, aerosols from volcanoes etc. 

We now actively suppress wildfires, whereas many areas where this happens the plants and animals have evolved with it with some plants won't even germinate until the seeds are charred. Some trees can cope with fire, the bark chars and then protects the inner core from burning out, but equally if a tree has a weakness it can burn the core out. The best and strongest survive. 

When areas get temporarily dry, or more dry than usual, a wildfire clears the way for renewal. We only have to see this where there have been wildfires and six months afterwards it absolutely explodes with life. 

Now, we have encroached so far into natural wildernesses, forests and deserts that we see these events as disasters. The same with earthquakes, volcanoes, hurricanes and cyclones, none are disasters they are part of the cycle of life of this planet, the only "disaster" is that humans get in the way and also think that if they put their cities, property etc in harms way it won't happen. 

So now I think we have seen an over-reaction, we think we have the a ability and right to try and alter nature, in doing so we have cleaned the air too much, as we see with the shipping aerosols. In trying to make sure every single human survives in reducing pollution, soot particles etc we are perhaps lessing the likelihood that humans as a whole will survive. 

In my view it was an experiment that started with the clean air acts in the 50s, coupled with the advent of the jet engine, and later a continued obsession to remove every last aerosol from the atmosphere. There is also the rather blinkered view that we must only concentrate on CO² as if it's the solution to all the problems, the atmosphere is a massively complex and chaotic system and I don't think we have come close to understanding even half of it, the same with the oceans. 

It would do well we took notice of the Native Americans for once, take what you "need" from the Earth, and always try to give something back. 

As a species we are wasteful, materialistic, self righteous and arrogant and it's all down to greed. 

Mother Nature won't be harmed by anything we do, in the long term she will recycle everything, there will be ice ages again, the lands will move, but we won't be here because humans cannot adapt or give up their addictions to that greed. 

Edited August 4, 2023 by SnowBear
Spelling

[Methuselah]

Well, I'm a firm believer in the Gaia Hypothesis, that the Earth responds to major disturbances (whether they be due to plate tectonics, asteroid impacts or an over-abundance of certain kinds of life forms) by potentially falling off a cliff, and that is why there have already been five mass extinctions. 

[matty40s]

 

[The PIT]

5 hours ago, Methuselah said:

Well, I'm a firm believer in the Gaia Hypothesis, that the Earth responds to major disturbances (whether they be due to plate tectonics, asteroid impacts or an over-abundance of certain kinds of life forms) by potentially falling off a cliff, and that is why there have already been five mass extinctions. 

I've been watching the series about he planet earth and is amazing how many times nature has tipped the balance and caused a dramatic shift like the trees that locked up all the co2 and caused an ice age.  We now burn that stuff as coal sending the co2 back into the air. Since we are nature we are basically causing a repeat of the cycle. Sadly our ever expanding population will be the end of us. The planet will recover and perhaps in a few millions years the next top species will puzzle as to why we went extinct as the did most other animals at the time and the cycle will start again.

[jaz]

6 hours ago, SnowBear said:

So now I think we have seen an over-reaction, we think we have the a ability and right to try and alter nature, in doing so we have cleaned the air too much, as we see with the shipping aerosols. In trying to make sure every single human survives in reducing pollution, soot particles etc we are perhaps lessing the likelihood that humans as a whole will survive. 

In my view it was an experiment that started with the clean air acts in the 50s, coupled with the advent of the jet engine, and later a continued obsession to remove every last aerosol from the atmosphere. There is also the rather blinkered view that we must only concentrate on CO² as if it's the solution to all the problems, the atmosphere is a massively complex and chaotic system and I don't think we have come close to understanding even half of it, the same with the oceans. 

Cleaned the air too much ? Surely those aerosols were put there by human activity.

[SnowBear]

12 minutes ago, jaz said:

Cleaned the air too much ? Surely those aerosols were put there by human activity.

Aerosols can be from natural causes too. 

[jonboy]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

I've been watching the series about he planet earth and is amazing how many times nature has tipped the balance and caused a dramatic shift like the trees that locked up all the co2 and caused an ice age.  We now burn that stuff as coal sending the co2 back into the air. Since we are nature we are basically causing a repeat of the cycle. Sadly our ever expanding population will be the end of us. The planet will recover and perhaps in a few millions years the next top species will puzzle as to why we went extinct as the did most other animals at the time and the cycle will start again.

One statement I would disagree with is 'our ever expanding population ' it is clear if anything we will very soon reach peak population and will start to see a decline in population.  Hence why you see China encouraging larger families and failing.  As more countries become less poor and infant mortality falls the need for large families decrease 

I would expect that within 50 years max we will see population decline 

[jaz]

1 hour ago, SnowBear said:

Aerosols can be from natural causes too. 

Sorry, yes meant to say Aerosols and Particulate’s from Human activities

[Blessed Weather]

3 minutes ago, jonboy said:

One statement I would disagree with is 'our ever expanding population ' it is clear if anything we will very soon reach peak population and will start to see a decline in population.  Hence why you see China encouraging larger families and failing.  As more countries become less poor and infant mortality falls the need for large families decrease 

I would expect that within 50 years max we will see population decline 

Headlines from the United Nations 2022 report World Population Prospects 2022:

• The world’s population continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowing down
• The population (currently 8 billion) is projected to reach a peak of around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and to remain at that level until 2100

Full report: https://www.un.org/development/desa/pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf

[SnowBear]

2 hours ago, jaz said:

Sorry, yes meant to say Aerosols and Particulate’s from Human activities

In some ways, but we also now actively suppress natural aerosols as well by stopping wildfires. This clears the air more than would perhaps be of they were left to burn out in their own course, meaning less particulates for water vapour to condense on, less clouds etc. Soot, smoke and ash can seed clouds if enough water vapour is there. 

We also seem to be in a period where there is less large ash and dust producing volcanoes such as Pinatubo and Mount St Helens, and it's been a lot longer since we had one like Tamboro or Krakatoa which effected the weather for some years afterwards and where the following year had no summer.

There are so many things going on this year, so many variables, it's hard to see what is really going on. The one big thing though in the last two years which has injected vast amounts of water vapour into the stratosphere and above is the Tonga volcano, and we are now seeing huge rainfall records being broken in various places, odd weather patterns, low temperature records being broken as well as heat.

It's going to take a couple of years now to get the effects of Tonga out of the way to really see what is what I think. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

12 hours ago, Methuselah said:

Not, should we have reached a tipping point, it doesn't.

Exactly this. When tipping points happen, changes tend to occur very, very quickly thereafter.

Edited August 4, 2023 by CreweCold

[alexisj9]

22 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

In some ways, but we also now actively suppress natural aerosols as well by stopping wildfires. This clears the air more than would perhaps be of they were left to burn out in their own course, meaning less particulates for water vapour to condense on, less clouds etc. Soot, smoke and ash can seed clouds if enough water vapour is there. 

We also seem to be in a period where there is less large ash and dust producing volcanoes such as Pinatubo and Mount St Helens, and it's been a lot longer since we had one like Tamboro or Krakatoa which effected the weather for some years afterwards and where the following year had no summer.

There are so many things going on this year, so many variables, it's hard to see what is really going on. The one big thing though in the last two years which has injected vast amounts of water vapour into the stratosphere and above is the Tonga volcano, and we are now seeing huge rainfall records being broken in various places, odd weather patterns, low temperature records being broken as well as heat.

It's going to take a couple of years now to get the effects of Tonga out of the way to really see what is what I think. 

You say that, yet, I don't think places that have had wild fires this year would agree, yes we fight them, but we always did. I think you might mean the practice of purposely burning fields to help crops, and such. Which is being done less and less. I think the practice of controlled burns might make a come back in some places that are having problems though. There is no way you can stop a wild fire before it starts, so no one is suppressing them.

[SnowBear]

11 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

You say that, yet, I don't think places that have had wild fires this year would agree, yes we fight them, but we always did. I think you might mean the practice of purposely burning fields to help crops, and such. Which is being done less and less. I think the practice of controlled burns might make a come back in some places that are having problems though. There is no way you can stop a wild fire before it starts, so no one is suppressing them.

We have gradually increased wildfire suppression for the past 100 years or more, it's actually part of the Forest Firefighters job. In clearing forest floors of debris to reduce the risk of a fire and other fire and forest management practises such as fire breaks we are reducing wildfires. 

Some forest fires in the past were absolutely huge, millions of acres in one go and they just burnt out or stopped when the rains returned. Before the US was populated wildfires were never fought, and I suspect the Native Americans never did either, they just got out of the way, or knew where not to build their homes due to being able to read the land. 

This isn't about stubble burning, this is about massive forest fires which are a part of the cycle of life in nature.

We have cut down so much of the world's forests and now even try and stop or prevent wildfires in what is left and overall this has reduced that natural quota of aerosols which was once part of that natural cycle. 

Because we now have property and business near these large forests we see the fires as disastrous, but for nature they are part of the cycle of life which has gone on for millions of years and even beneficial in that it clears away the weak and old and allows space for renewal. 

[Daniel*]

It’s the evolution of ENSO which is unprecedented in all our lifetimes, first 3 year La Niña (rare) this stores a lot heat in oceans of mild latitudes as wind evaporation is reduced but then now with abrupt —> El Niño it is now being expelled also into atmosphere, meanwhile the tropics aggressively warm with quick formation of El Niño, typically we see a year or two of neutral ENSO, this allows mid latitudes to cool in time of developing El Niño we have not seen this and this is reason why global temperatures are particularly elevated right now. The good news this is temporary by next La Niña possibly in 2024/2025 things should normalise a tad.

[SnowBear]

4 hours ago, Daniel* said:

It’s the evolution of ENSO which is unprecedented in all our lifetimes, first 3 year La Niña (rare) this stores a lot heat in oceans of mild latitudes as wind evaporation is reduced but then now with abrupt —> El Niño it is now being expelled also into atmosphere, meanwhile the tropics aggressively warm with quick formation of El Niño, typically we see a year or two of neutral ENSO, this allows mid latitudes to cool in time of developing El Niño we have not seen this and this is reason why global temperatures are particularly elevated right now. The good news this is temporary by next La Niña possibly in 2024/2025 things should normalise a tad.

This is interesting too. So we have had an extended La Niña, and instead of a lull between we have had a quick switch to El Niño. Having take a quick look at the research on the ENSO cycle there are still many things we do not understand about that cycle and the reliable historical data is quite short. 

If we had this year's anomalies occurring with no other natural events I would perhaps except that global warming has caused those anomalies, but we do have an unprecedented natural event in the time frame of the latest ENSO switch, the Tonga volcano.

It appears we should have had a neutral phase, but did that eruption delay the El Niño onset, so much that it flips with no neutral phase at all. 

What we now have to figure out is how much, if at all, has that eruption upset the cycles of both the atmosphere and the oceans and for how long will it continue. 

We are very much in a learning phase at the moment on many aspects of our planet and climate.