Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[Blessed Weather]

Copernicus Report 05th Oct 2023:

September 2023 – unprecedented temperature anomalies; 2023 on track to be the warmest year on record

The unprecedented temperatures for the time of year observed in September - following a record summer - have broken records by an extraordinary amount. This extreme month has pushed 2023 into the dubious honour of first place - on track to be the warmest year and around 1.4°C above preindustrial average temperatures. Two months out from COP28 – the sense of urgency for ambitious climate action has never been more critical.

Source: https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-september-2023-unprecedented-temperature-anomalies

[The PIT]

Nice little combination of El Nino + Tonga eruption + a bit of human interference.

Some reports from the media have got it wrong/ misquoting. The funniest one I heard was that September was 9 degrees warmer than normal. I think they missed the . when reading the information.

[Penguin16]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Nice little combination of El Nino + Tonga eruption + a bit of human interference.

Some reports from the media have got it wrong/ misquoting. The funniest one I heard was that September was 9 degrees warmer than normal. I think they missed the . when reading the information.

“A bit of human interference” well the experts say otherwise it was mostly because of human interference. A study in to the eruption calculated that the water vapor could increase the average global temperature (0.035 degrees Celsius) A tiny amount. 

Earth's warming trend predates the eruption. July may have been the hottest month on record for global temperatures, but the five hottest Julys have all been recorded in the past five years(including La Niña), according to NASA.

And this isn’t directed at you but I do find it hilarious how denialists attribute all this warming to the volcanic eruption due the increased water Vapor in the atmosphere which is a greenhouse gas but deny humans pumping copious amounts of greenhouse gases in to the atmosphere has any effect. Reminds me of religious zealots who pick and choose from the bible to suit their agenda. 

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Penguin16 said:

“A bit of human interference” well the experts say otherwise it was mostly because of human interference. A study in to the eruption calculated that the water vapor could increase the average global temperature (0.035 degrees Celsius) A tiny amount. 

Earth's warming trend predates the eruption. July may have been the hottest month on record for global temperatures, but the five hottest Julys have all been recorded in the past five years(including La Niña), according to NASA.

And this isn’t directed at you but I do find it hilarious how denialists attribute all this warming to the volcanic eruption due the increased water Vapor in the atmosphere which is a greenhouse gas but deny humans pumping copious amounts of greenhouse gases in to the atmosphere has any effect. Reminds me of religious zealots who pick and choose from the bible to suit their agenda. 

It also (when one thinks of last year's 40.3C) predates the El Nino. 

[WYorksWeather]

I think it will be interesting to see what happens to this graph from Berkeley Earth when their September update comes out. The August update came out on September 13th, so probably in the next week or two we'll get an update.

They previously estimated a 55% chance of the annual average for 2023 exceeding 1.5C over pre-industrial. Important to note of course that this isn't the same as the 1.5C in the Paris agreement, which is the longer term average. Given the record-warm September reported by other datasets, you'd expect that probability to increase when September's data is in. Important to note that Berkeley Earth's dataset tends to show the most warming, so if we do see a 1.5C on Berkeley Earth for 2023, it may not show on the other datasets.

If current trends continue, we'll likely pass 1.5C on the longer-term average in the early 2030s according to most estimates.

[richie3846]

On 05/10/2023 at 00:11, WYorksWeather said:

Should have been clearer on the 10,000 year timescale - that's just one example. You could write several books on various paleoclimate investigations - obviously the evidence gets patchier the further back you go. At the moment the IPCC consensus is that on temperature, we are now globally most likely at the hottest temperatures within the last 10,000 years. In terms of CO2 levels, we have high confidence that CO2 levels have not been higher in the last 800,000 years.

For me though, the most impressive research I've seen is on rate of CO2 increase. Evidence shows that the rate of increase is likely unprecedented in the last 66 million years. I've attached a link to the study below - it's not open access unfortunately but the abstract is visible. I've also attached a press link which is more accessible if you're not used to reading scientific articles.

I do agree that sustainability has to be considered in the round. I also think the question around solutions is very much a live question. Once you start getting into what should be done with the information, you're leaving the realm of scientific discourse, and starting to look  philosophy, economics, politics and so on. 

Rate of carbon emissions put in context

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Humans are now putting carbon into the atmosphere at a rate unprecedented since at least the age of the dinosaurs, scientists say.

Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years

WWW.NATURE.COM

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Carbon release rates during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum are difficult to constrain. Comparing relative rates of carbon cycle and climate change at the event’s onset suggests emissions were much slower than...

 

Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years

ESCHOLARSHIP.ORG

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Author(s): Zeebe, Richard E; Ridgwell, Andy; Zachos, James C | Abstract: Carbon release rates from anthropogenic sources reached a record high of ∼10 Pg...

 

The scientific article is available here also. 

I've taken the time to read the scientific piece, and the BBC piece also. One thing that the BBC picks up on confused me, as it was not the main focus of the study:

'CO2 concentration in the atmosphere very probably went above 1,000 parts per million by volume, compared with the 400ppm it stands at today.'

Any thoughts about this, in relation to the study on carbon release rates?

 

 

Edited October 7, 2023 by richie3846

[WYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, richie3846 said:

Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years

ESCHOLARSHIP.ORG

---

Author(s): Zeebe, Richard E; Ridgwell, Andy; Zachos, James C | Abstract: Carbon release rates from anthropogenic sources reached a record high of ∼10 Pg...

 

The scientific article is available here also. 

I've taken the time to read the scientific piece, and the BBC piece also. One thing that the BBC picks up on confused me, as it was not the main focus of the study:

'CO2 concentration in the atmosphere very probably went above 1,000 parts per million by volume, compared with the 400ppm it stands at today.'

Any thoughts about this, in relation to the study on carbon release rates?

 

 

I'm not entirely sure what you're asking. Do you mean whether it's likely we'll see concentrations get that high, or why they got that high so long ago and what the result of that was, or whether a similar process could happen today? If you can give me a clearer idea of what you want to know, I'll do my best to answer.

[richie3846]

16 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

I'm not entirely sure what you're asking. Do you mean whether it's likely we'll see concentrations get that high, or why they got that high so long ago and what the result of that was, or whether a similar process could happen today? If you can give me a clearer idea of what you want to know, I'll do my best to answer.

Sorry, I'll clarify. 

With concentrations probably a lot lower than the time of the study, are we likely to see a rise in concentrations anywhere like 1000ppm?

Are there any studies into the effects of increases in CO2, from different starting points? The study itself was of course limited to the conditions at the time of the warming event 66 million years ago, so do we really know if the effects will be that dramatic, when concentrations now are much lower.

 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

Sorry, I'll clarify. 

With concentrations probably a lot lower than the time of the study, are we likely to see a rise in concentrations anywhere like 1000ppm?

The way I read that the study was carried-out 66million years ago. I think I'm going senile! 

[WYorksWeather]

Just now, richie3846 said:

Sorry, I'll clarify. 

With concentrations probably a lot lower than the time of the study, are we likely to see a rise in concentrations anywhere like 1000ppm?

Are there any studies into the effects of increases in CO2, from different starting points? The study itself was of course limited to the conditions at the time of the warming event 66 million years ago, so do we really know if the effects will be that dramatic, when concentrations now are much lower.

 

It's highly unlikely the effects will be as dramatic as the Paleocene-Eocene. Below are the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

The RCP 8.5 scenario is the only one that gets close to Paleocene-Eocene levels, and is considered by most to be highly unlikely, as it's essentially a return to very high emission ways and very big population increases. Think a population of 15 billion powered almost entirely by coal. The only way it could happen absent that would be very high positive carbon cycle feedbacks. In other words, releases from wetlands, melting permafrost, etc.

Best to put that scenario to one side, and focus on RCP 4.5.

In short, by the relatively near term around 2050,  you're looking at levels somewhere around 500ppm in RCP 4.5, maybe closer to 600ppm by 2100.

In terms of the climate of the Paleocene-Eocene - you're talking absolutely extraordinary changes. Fossil evidence indicates that about 55 million years ago there were sub-tropical conditions in the Arctic - think palm trees and crocodiles. Highly, highly unlikely to happen today. Global temperatures were probably something like 5-8C above pre-industrial. By contrast, RCP 4.5 would put us on track for 3C by the end of the century.

 

[WYorksWeather]

The Berkeley Earth temperature update is out now. Headline findings are below. Full report, which is well worth a read, is here: 

September 2023 Temperature Update - Berkeley Earth

BERKELEYEARTH.ORG

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September 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1850. 2023 is virtually certain to become a record warm year, and likely to exceed 1.5 °C.

 

Quote

 

Globally, September 2023 was the warmest September — and the largest monthly anomaly of any month — since records began in 1850.

The previous record for warmest September was broken by 0.5 °C (0.9 °F), a staggeringly large margin.

Both land and ocean individually also set new records for the warmest September.

The extra warmth added since August occurred primarily in polar regions, especially Antarctica.

Antarctic sea ice set a new record for lowest seasonal maximum extent.

Record warmth in 2023 is primarily a combined effect of global warming and a strengthening El Niño, but natural variability and other factors have also contributed.

Particularly warm conditions occurred in the North Atlantic, Eastern Equatorial Pacific, South America, Central America, Europe, parts of Africa and the Middle East, Japan, and Antarctica.

77 countries, mostly in Europe and the tropics, set new monthly average records for September.

El Niño continues to strengthen and is expected to continue into next year.

2023 is now virtually certain to become a new record warm year (>99% chance).

2023 is very likely (90% chance) to average more than 1.5 °C above our 1850-1900 baseline.

 

And since a picture is worth a thousand words:

There are a few other stats worth commenting on from this report that are simply staggering.  The globally-averaged anomaly for September was 1.82C (+/- 0.09C) above 1850-1900. The global land anomaly was 2.56C (+/- 0.15C). 

16% of global surface, and 22% of land surface, was record warm in September. 87% of the Earth's surface was significantly warm compared to average. 77 countries had record warm Septembers. Nowhere was record cold in September.

Here's the projection for the end of the year:

From a 1% chance at the start of the year, to now a 90% chance of exceeding 1.5C on a yearly average for the first time ever, at least in the Berkeley Earth dataset. Other datasets have slightly lower warming, so it may be 1.5C in Berkeley Earth but not in others.

[matty40s]

The Planet is reconvening a new normal , existing norms, model predictions and accepted weather patterns will become more and more disturbed with cataclysmic events appearing with increasing regularity.

We are sleepwalking the human race into extinction.

[matty40s]

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 16/10/2023 at 18:06, matty40s said:

The Planet is reconvening a new normal , existing norms, model predictions and accepted weather patterns will become more and more disturbed with cataclysmic events appearing with increasing regularity.

We are sleepwalking the human race into extinction.

But it is too late to stop it now....

Soo what do we do?

Sit there and moan or do something that will really make a difference?.

I suggest that we make some efforts at amelioration.   Hounding China, stopping flooding on the coastline,    not building on flood plains, ensuring we have enough energy under any circumstances will save more lives than cutting out CO2 entirely.

MIA

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

But it is too late to stop it now....

Soo what do we do?

Sit there and moan or do something that will really make a difference?.

I suggest that we make some efforts at amelioration.   Hounding China, stopping flooding on the coastline,    not building on flood plains, ensuring we have enough energy under any circumstances will save more lives than cutting out CO2 entirely.

MIA

Well, for a start, 'we' could stop denying the reality we face? 

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Well, for a start, 'we' could stop denying the reality we face? 

In fact we need to do both, accept what is happening, and start preparing to deal with impacts.

[cheeky_monkey]

28 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Well, for a start, 'we' could stop denying the reality we face? 

and what is the reality of what we face? Yes the world is warming but what is the true reality of a warmer world? Epoch wise we are still in an ice age don't forget 

[Methuselah]

Just now, cheeky_monkey said:

and what is the reality of what we face? Yes the world is warming but what is the true reality of a warmer world? Epoch wise we are still in an ice age don't forget 

And?

[cheeky_monkey]

Just now, Methuselah said:

And?

never answer a question with a question that's bad form 

[Methuselah]

Just now, cheeky_monkey said:

never answer a question with a question that's bad form 

Whatever! 

[MattStoke]

11 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

and what is the reality of what we face? Yes the world is warming but what is the true reality of a warmer world? Epoch wise we are still in an ice age don't forget 

It’s really the rate of warming and other subsequent changes that is the issue. It’s more difficult to adapt to changes that are above natural rate of change.

[SnowBear]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It’s really the rate of warming and other subsequent changes that is the issue. It’s more difficult to adapt to changes that are above natural rate of change.

To be honest, that's a human problem, not a planetary problem. We don't know for sure how quick the climate can change but I suspect it's faster than we think and part of what we are seeing now is possibly Mother Nature showing us exactly who is boss. 

We have lost the ability to move and adapt to climate change, plus there are too many of us so if the climate does change quickly we are at a loss what to do. 

The planet can become much warmer and it will still be here with living things on it. 

[MattStoke]

4 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

To be honest, that's a human problem, not a planetary problem. We don't know for sure how quick the climate can change but I suspect it's faster than we think and part of what we are seeing now is possibly Mother Nature showing us exactly who is boss. 

We have lost the ability to move and adapt to climate change, plus there are too many of us so if the climate does change quickly we are at a loss what to do. 

The planet can become much warmer and it will still be here with living things on it. 

A lot of species are sensitive to small changes in climate. Species evolve and adapt to natural changes which occur slowly but will struggle to adapt to more rapid changes. That’s evident in the number of species that have greatly reduced in number or even become extinct in recent decades.

[jonboy]

30 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

and what is the reality of what we face? Yes the world is warming but what is the true reality of a warmer world? Epoch wise we are still in an ice age don't forget 

What I find really interesting in Nick F early winter thoughts he has specifically noted as one of the key variables that brings uncertainty to what is happening is the water vapour from hunga tonga that has now found its way to the poles.

Until we fully understand the impact this most important green house gas has had you can't fully understand the true underlying trend. 

[Scott Ingham]

2 hours ago, SnowBear said:

To be honest, that's a human problem, not a planetary problem. We don't know for sure how quick the climate can change but I suspect it's faster than we think and part of what we are seeing now is possibly Mother Nature showing us exactly who is boss. 

We have lost the ability to move and adapt to climate change, plus there are too many of us so if the climate does change quickly we are at a loss what to do. 

The planet can become much warmer and it will still be here with living things on it. 

Im sorry.

But ice core records show that at this rate of increase we will NOT still be living on this planet. We are well on the way to extinction.

Being in denial is really not helping its contributing to us becoming extinct.

We need actions and FAST! This isnt sensationalism this is realism its an INCREDIBLY worrying situation we are in right now