Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[Downburst]

One of the nightmare sides of the internet is any kind of open forum on scientific study attracts both the educated and interested, but also the ignorant and uneducated. It’s simply not possible to avoid people who aren’t embarrassed by their ignorance and are actually satisfied to bait a response. They actually believe their thoughts and beliefs, with some evidence produced from something they watch on YouTube over published scientific papers. The very simple concepts of scientific publishing is beyond them. It is pointless entirely as you are simply dragged to their level. Don’t engage.

[WYorksWeather]

15 hours ago, Downburst said:

One of the nightmare sides of the internet is any kind of open forum on scientific study attracts both the educated and interested, but also the ignorant and uneducated. It’s simply not possible to avoid people who aren’t embarrassed by their ignorance and are actually satisfied to bait a response. They actually believe their thoughts and beliefs, with some evidence produced from something they watch on YouTube over published scientific papers. The very simple concepts of scientific publishing is beyond them. It is pointless entirely as you are simply dragged to their level. Don’t engage.

Not sure I'd entirely agree. Even if you're not convincing anyone, your argument might still convince others, or at least provide further detail or information.

I always avoid getting into a blatant shouting match though, that is pointless. Once it becomes about persuading or convincing rather than informing, that's how you get dozens of ranting replies.

[WYorksWeather]

The first of the monthly reports for October 2023 is now out, from Copernicus ECMWF.

Copernicus: October 2023 - Exceptional temperature anomalies; 2023 virtually certain to be warmest year on record

CLIMATE.COPERNICUS.EU

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C3S, implemented by ECMWF on behalf of the European Commission with funding from the EU, routinely publishes monthly climate bulletins reporting on the changes observed in global surface air and sea temperatures...

As a quick summary, October came out 1.7C above pre-industrial (1850-1900), the warmest October on record by 0.40C.

The year-to-date annual average is 1.43C.

This is in ERA5. Note that different datasets vary on the amount of warming since pre-industrial by around 0.2C.

By a bit of simple algebra, we can work out what November and December would have to average for a 1.5C annual average in ERA5.

1.5 = ((10 * 1.43) + (2 * x)) / 12

18 = 14.3 + (2 * x)

3,7 = 2x

x = 1.85

This is probably a high bar to clear - so likely we will fall just short of 1.5C on ERA5.

A couple of charts below:

 

We will have to wait a few more days for Berkeley Earth. It typically comes out slightly higher, so it may be that we breach 1.5C for the annual average in Berkeley Earth, but not in any other dataset.

It will still be a highly symbolic moment, though, if it happens.

 

 

[matty40s]

I am pretty sure that some of the scary flood scenes this year across the globe are directly linked to this....

 

[Methuselah]

 

[Downburst]

13 minutes ago, matty40s said:

I am pretty sure that some of the scary flood scenes this year across the globe are directly linked to this....

 

Interesting that in Ireland the analysis showed on the recent climate statement that precipitation totals had increased 7% from one period to the next. Source: https://www.met.ie/met-eireann-publishes-irelands-new-climate-averages-for-1991-2020

[WYorksWeather]

Think yesterday was the highest anomaly of the year, and as far as I could tell from a quick check, the joint highest ever (with Feb 2020). This is over a 1979-2000 normal, which is really quite incredible.

[Sky Full]

12 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

Think yesterday was the highest anomaly of the year, and as far as I could tell from a quick check, the joint highest ever (with Feb 2020). This is over a 1979-2000 normal, which is really quite incredible.

 

That is an interesting and revealing graph, but does it represent a global mean or is it representative of one particular location?  I only ask because the temperature gradients are typical of the northern hemisphere seasons and I would have expected a global mean to be less sensitive to seasonal changes? 

Edited November 18, 2023 by Sky Full

[jonboy]

59 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

That is an interesting and revealing graph, but does it represent a global mean or is it representative of one particular location?  I only ask because the temperature gradients are typical of the northern hemisphere seasons and I would have expected a global mean to be less sensitive to seasonal changes? 

I would be interested to know if the temperature can be split between night and day. In my mind a lot of the increases in the mean is driven by high night time temperature rather than daytime temperature 

 

[Methuselah]

17 minutes ago, jonboy said:

I would be interested to know if the temperature can be split between night and day. In my mind a lot of the increases in the mean is driven by high night time temperature rather than daytime temperature 

 

What, all over the world, and all at the same time?

[WYorksWeather]

2 hours ago, Sky Full said:

That is an interesting and revealing graph, but does it represent a global mean or is it representative of one particular location?  I only ask because the temperature gradients are typical of the northern hemisphere seasons and I would have expected a global mean to be less sensitive to seasonal changes? 

Source is here - Climate Reanalyzer. Today's is actually worse - anomaly of 1.3C. I think that is definitively the highest global anomaly, I've not seen that before. From reading I think this translates to somewhere around 1.8C to 1.9C over pre-industrial temperatures.

Put another way, global temperatures today are equal to the average for mid-October. The reason global temperatures follow the northern hemisphere seasons more prominently is that there is more land in the Northern Hemisphere, and that warms faster than ocean. The anomaly in the Southern Hemisphere is much lower at the moment, but still record-breaking or near record-breaking.

 

1 hour ago, jonboy said:

I would be interested to know if the temperature can be split between night and day. In my mind a lot of the increases in the mean is driven by high night time temperature rather than daytime temperature 

 

That is actually true - nights are generally warming faster than days across land areas. There's a study here to read more if you're interested. The effect is relatively modest though - on the order of a 0.2C difference in warming globally over the last 35 years, but with some more significant effects at regional level.

In terms of identified warming asymmetries - here are some of the major ones.

• Nights generally warm slightly faster than days
• Winters warm faster than summers
• The Northern Hemisphere warms faster than the Southern Hemisphere
•  Higher latitudes warm faster than lower latitudes (particularly so in the Northern Hemisphere)

Just a moment...

ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COM

Berkeley Earth's monthly update should be out soon (it was on the 11th last month, not sure of the reason for the delay). I think it will pretty much confirm that 2023 will be a 1.5C year in that dataset (though likely not in other datasets, as they estimate slightly higher temperatures in 1850-1900, and correspondingly lower anomalies).

[Methuselah]

Oh dear!

COP28 live: UN climate summit opens in Dubai after year of extremes - BBC News

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The record should "send shivers down the spines of world leaders", António Guterres says, as thousands gather in Dubai.

 

[Methuselah]

If someone wants to tell me just why Lord Cameron, Rishi Sunak and King Charles needed the private planes, on their way to Dubai, I'm all ears. . . Hypocrites! 

[Scuba steve]

5 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

If someone wants to tell me just why Lord Cameron, Rishi Sunak and King Charles needed the private planes, on their way to Dubai, I'm all ears. . . Hypocrites! 

That because they’re important ,well at least they think so 

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, Methuselah said:

If someone wants to tell me just why Lord Cameron, Rishi Sunak and King Charles needed the private planes, on their way to Dubai, I'm all ears. . . Hypocrites! 

do as i say not as i do brigade 

[WYorksWeather]

8 hours ago, Methuselah said:

If someone wants to tell me just why Lord Cameron, Rishi Sunak and King Charles needed the private planes, on their way to Dubai, I'm all ears. . . Hypocrites! 

Genuinely I think the COP climate process is one of those cases where it's the least bad option.

I don't like the optics of it, it sends entirely the wrong message (there's no reason why most of the key meetings can't happen remotely, so far fewer people need to attend). I agree also that attendees should as a matter of setting the right example either use more sustainable forms of transport, or if they're unwilling or unable to do so, fully offset their emissions via an externally-reviewed and audited process.

However, it remains the case that the COP is the only setup we have that gets lots of world leaders talking about climate-related issues. I don't really know how you could replace it.

In any case this is straying too far from the thread topic so I'll leave it there.

On topic, here is the latest global temperature chart from Climate Reanalyzer. Anomalies have fallen back somewhat to 1.0C above 1979-2000. Will be interesting to see how December turns out!

 

 

 

[WYorksWeather]

November similar to October in anomaly terms. September still stands out as the most anomalous month of the year overall. All eyes on December to see where the year finishes - of course the warmest year on record is a formality at this point.

Latest from Climate Reanalyzer:

Still showing global temperatures running over a month behind. Temperatures around 0.3C above the previous highest for this time of year, and more in line with what you'd expect typically in late October. The renewed rise in the anomaly is driven by a slower than usual temperature decline in the Northern Hemisphere, and particularly we see Arctic temperature anomalies at +7C, which is close to a record high for this time of year.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Great representation and correspondence of surface temps in association with the ongoing MJO cycle 

I have noted there have been cold temperatures at / near record levels in Brazil which can be noted on the above.

Upcoming pattern with Above avg temps particularly with the Canadain -- Maritime blocking as I've covered of late and a split between central warmth and east cold west cold in Australia 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Spot on

[matty40s]

 

[The PIT]

and back down to 19C today.

[WYorksWeather]

Climate Reanalyzer

CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG

Global about to drop below record-breaking levels for the first time since August. Likely a temporary blip as the El Nino effect is lagged, and there is more variation generally in the Northern Hemisphere winter. As a whole, December still on track to be record-warm.

[WYorksWeather]

Global temperatures back at record highs. We should have preliminary results for 2023 from Climate Reanalyzer in a week or so, then full results from the major global temperature tracking agencies by the second half of January.

[WYorksWeather]

Gradually, more of these will come in, but here is the data for 2023 that we have so far:

Very, very close to 1.5C. Berkeley Earth will almost certainly show >1.5C, but of course that is only one dataset. If this year is only fractionally warmer than 2023 globally, we may see an indisputable 1.5C.

More local to us, it was the second warmest year in the UK:

UK weather: 2023 was second warmest year on record, says Met Office

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The 10 warmest years in the UK have all occurred since 2003 according to provisional Met Office data.

 

[reef]

19 hours ago, WYorksWeather said:

Gradually, more of these will come in, but here is the data for 2023 that we have so far:

Very, very close to 1.5C. Berkeley Earth will almost certainly show >1.5C, but of course that is only one dataset. If this year is only fractionally warmer than 2023 globally, we may see an indisputable 1.5C.

More local to us, it was the second warmest year in the UK:

UK weather: 2023 was second warmest year on record, says Met Office

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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The 10 warmest years in the UK have all occurred since 2003 according to provisional Met Office data.

 

I think what will be interesting to see over the next few years / decade is whether the current jump in warmth is temporary and if we return to trend (currently around +1.1 - 1.2C) or if we've gone through a step change and see an acceleration in the temperature rise.