Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[Gray-Wolf]

So ,as an add on what if the deniers are right and we face a period of cooler temps bringing us back to the temps from mid 1900's ? What need we do to ready ourselves for such a drama?

 

Well? apart from feed and fuel double the population we had in the 1900's? Maybe clean up our act and stop needlessly bringing species to extinction?

 

And what if 97% of scientist looking into climate are correct?

 

Well you ain't gonna be too chuffed with the mongrel who told you it was all a pile of pooh-pooh and not to worry about it all as all those scientist knew nowt ( compared to their sources) and mother N. was just doin' what She's always done.......... especially when pretty quickly food security was compromised and climate refugees were swamping your borders......

 

Should we be facing a 'climate shift', as over a decade of pent up warming is released back into the system along with a shift to the naturals augmenting current GHG forcings, then we will be having our answer over the next few years and you will be left in no doubt which of the above is correct.

 

I still favour the clever bods, trained in the discipline over armchair experts.......... 

[knocker]

An interesting post by Nick Stokes.

 

http://moyhu.blogspot.co.uk/2014/10/a-catch-up-on-templs.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Warmest September on record according to the JMA, and by an impressive 0.08C.

 

 

This means that each of the last 3 September set a new record!

 

1st. 2014(+0.34°C),

2nd. 2013(+0.26°C),

3rd. 2012(+0.25°C),

4th. 2009,2005(+0.22°C)

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmmm, do I detect a trend??( LOL)

 

Seriously though? such behaviour under ENSO neutral and amid a plethora of cool forcings? Nino's still happen and , to my knowledge, Naturals still have two opposing states. What will happen to global temps once we see a collection of positive 'naturals' under a Nino? 

[knocker]

Some analysis on @NASAGISS September temperature high. (Spolier: nothing to do with Antarctica)

 

https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin

[stewfox]

Hmmmm, do I detect a trend??( LOL)

 

Seriously though? such behaviour under ENSO neutral and amid a plethora of cool forcings? Nino's still happen and , to my knowledge, Naturals still have two opposing states. What will happen to global temps once we see a collection of positive 'naturals' under a Nino? 

 

Unfortunately 0,08c is not a trend

 

thus the CCC in quoting a 1998-2013 annual average global surface temperature ‘trend’ of 0.04 deg C per decade (based on HadCrut4 data)

 

The 0.04 deg C per decade figure quoted by the CCC should have an error of +/- 0.15 deg C, a figure that is four times larger than that quoted by the CCC. 

 

The reason why the CCC finds a (statistically insignificant) positive gradient at all has nothing to do with global warming but the presence of two La Nina years – 1989 and 2000.

 

http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/10/16/the-cherry-picking-climate-change-committee/

[BornFromTheVoid]

"Statistically insignificant" isn't a thing. Disproving statistical significance does not prove statistical insignificance.

 

Anyway, using the GISS data, which isn't much different to JMA, the last 30 years of September? (standard climatology period). Trend of 0.21C per decade.

 

Since 1998 (cherry picking for those who like 1998). Trend of 0.15C per decade.

 

 

Cherry picking for the opposite effect, using 1992 as the start point. Trend of 0.25C per decade

 

 

I suppose the ideal cherry picked start point to downplay the warming would be 2005...

 

The first 9 months of this year have averaged 0.65C above average. If the final 3 months pull the average up to +0.68C the warming since 1998 will become statistically significant again. However, if the year only averages 0.66C (equal warmest) then next year only has to average 0.60C above average for the 1998-2015 trend to be significant.

Interesting times.

[BornFromTheVoid]

To add to the others, NCDC now confirming September 2014 as the warmest on record. And for the 3rd time this year, a new record has been set for the largest monthly +ve anomaly for the oceans. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/9

 

Global Highlights

• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for September 2014 was the highest on record for September, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above the 20th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F).
• The global land surface temperature was 0.89°C (1.60°F) above the 20th century average of 12.0°C (53.6°F), tying with 2013 as the sixth warmest September on record. For the ocean, the September global sea surface temperature was 0.66°C (1.19°F) above the 20th century average of 16.2°C (61.1°F), the highest on record for September and also the highest on record for any month.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–September period (year-to-date) was 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average of 14.1°C (57.5°F), tying with 1998 and 2010 as the warmest such period on record.

 

EDIT: Another interesting part of the report:

The past 12 months—October 2013–September 2014—was the warmest 12-month period among all months since records began in 1880, at 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average. This breaks the previous record of +0.68°C (+1.22°F) set for the periods September 1998–August 1998, August 2009–July 2010; and September 2013–August 2014.

Edited October 20, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

Seems like even the oceans are wanting to show the sceptics where the heat is going (LOL!) 

 

Again the question remains "what happens when the naturals flip positive?"

[keithlucky]

Were my post gone relivant to thread.

Edited October 21, 2014 by keithlucky

[Gray-Wolf]

Am I correct in thinking the oceans have played a large part in all of this years months? Does this not hint at the oceans not losing the surface heat ( to deeper levels) as they warm meaning warmer surface temps developing? Would warmer depths also present less of a thermal shock for warming surfaces? (allowing them to heat faster with less of a 'sink' on that heat gain being presented by the waters below).

 

Are we starting to see some of the naturals flatten down to neutral from high negative peaks? The IPO has its two phases, one of surface water subduction and one of surface water heating. As the Trades fall back from their recent record highs are we seeing lighter winds across the Pacific and greater surface heating?

 

How is a warmer ocean impacting PDO-ve phase? Is this also falling neutral ( extended positive phase amid a PDO-ve phase?)

 

Maybe we are watching the naturals flipping to their 'augmenting AGW' phases?

[knocker]

Excellent discussion by Carl Mears (data scientist) on RSS record and reasons for model/obs discrepancies

 

http://www.remss.com/blog/recent-slowing-rise-global-temperatures â€¦

[Gray-Wolf]

Fascinating Knocks!

 

The final frame showing increased wind speeds over the period is very telling to anyone knowing PDO /ENSO. The increases (due to imbalance between Atlantic/Pacific) trace out PDO-ve and El Nina patterns.......... as if AGW forcings have augmented these states? Maybe explains why we might be facing a sudden flip back to augmented warming as the two basins reach parity once again.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Joint warmest October on record (with 2012 at +0.37C) according to UAH, and 3rd warmest year to date.

[VillagePlank]

I think , to many, Knocks is already 'branded'???

 

After digesting the paper on the invigorated/anomalous Trades ( and its links to the warmed Atlantic) I further reiterate my ponderings above a it now appears that we might be closer to such a switch than many , posting here, would wish to imagine?

 

Both the paper ( on the strengthened Walker Cell) and the synopsis and interviews all hint at us approaching a time when the 'issues' that the record trades have brought are now close to being at an end with a possible future Nino signalling that flip ( as the Pacific reaches parity , or even a positive imbalance, with the atlantic?).

 

Could this limping on move toward Nino conditions be what we need to see the change? As the Sun heads south  the winter cooling of the atlantic has recently seemed to allow for 'parity ' in the basins and so Jan/Feb has seen westerly wind bursts along the pacific equator. should we see the same occur in 2015 then the residual warmth from the current building KW may well push Nino regions into full nino conditions in spring? This , in its turn, drives parity with the Atlantic basin over the early summer/summer months allowing for the walker Cell to slacken and the Trades fall light....... maybe even allowing for atmospheric cooperation with the Nino?.

 

This will see the warm pool increasingly fed back into the central/eastern Pacific further impacting trades and so allowing the IPO to flip Positive ( surface heating phase) and fan out into the PDO regions allowing the current positive PDO to maintain ( allowing Nino's to become more frequent).

 

All in all this would flip the position back to naturals augmenting the AGW warming and so we would see warming similar to the 80's/90's again. This time we have the issue of energy from the Arctic as we now see at least 1/3 of the basin open water over the summer months and snow melt pushed back ever further ( meaning we have more energy able to be trapped on earth rather than bounced back into space than we saw in the 80's/90's) we also have higher levels of CO2 and China committed to cleaning up it's 'dirty' coal use so reducing the dimming that occurred in the noughties?

 

We also have the prospect of the cyclical 'perfect melt storm' synoptic hitting the Arctic basin from 2017 on. This may well be the event that sees the next major plummet in ice levels ( opening up more area to the sun) and further adds into the current Jet stream anoms and so extreme 'weather' responses?

 

Doesn't look likely for Spring 2015, now.

[Gray-Wolf]

I was wondering ( out loud) if what we are seeing is a 2 month window from mid Jan to mid March where the trades 'falter' and we see a KW push out? This ends up being late forecast and, it appears, is over egged as the trades become resurgent again and the 'forecast' Nino gets binned.

 

How many years, recently, have we seen a Nino forecast only for it to fade by summer? Last time it did appear that we did better with the current KW still keeping the regions near threshold values so is the forcing now becoming spent? If so then we have a large warm pool with no 'force' keeping it in place!

 

Let's see what the Nov/Dec Nino forecasts bring us eh? If we see them upping the chances of a moderate Nino for spring/early summer then we will be back on the roundabout again but, as I've noted, maybe we're approaching the end of the ride?

 

As for the other 'naturals' mentioned, well PDO is still positive so nearly a year of positives now  so are we entering the end phase of PDO-ve with , effectively,neutral conditions over the averaged past couple of years? should we put faith in the paper noting the forcing from temp differences between Pacific/Atlantic tropical basins then near parity would mean a lessening of the anomalous Trades ( and a return to more 'normal values'?) and a move away from the 'burying' of heat in the deeper layers of the ocean ( in favour of surface heating and losses into the atmosphere?).

 

Whatever we find the reality to be we all need to accept that 'naturals' have two phases, one lessening AGW impacts and one Augmenting those impacts, at some point we need to accept that the current 'negatives' will swing back positive. 

 

But maybe, just maybe,  we are now seeing AGW messing with, or even over riding, some of the Naturals (as we see with the problem with the trades and know from our human impacts on the ozone over the poles?) and so are entering a period where we really do not know what to expect as messed with cycles impact with less impacted cycles?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/04/in-the-red-west-coast-waters-are-warmest-in-decades-what-does-it-mean/

 

So it's beginning to look like the Trough over the central/eastern U.S. is going to become a feature again this winter? Odd to see 'Nino like' conditions with us still sat in neutral territory? Are we seeing ocean warming over riding the other naturals?

[knocker]

October 4th warmest on record for contig USA

 

http://1.usa.gov/1osShtz

[BornFromTheVoid]

At 0.34C above the 81-10 average, JMA have October 2014 as the warmest by quite a large margin.

 

 

Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

 

1st. 2014(+0.34°C),

2nd. 2003(+0.24°C),

3rd. 2006(+0.23°C),

4th. 2012,1997(+0.21°C)

[BornFromTheVoid]

And at 0.76C, October 2014 is tied with 2005 for the warmest on record, according to NASA GISS. This means that it's the 2nd warmest year to date and very likely to be the warmest or joint warmest year on record.

[knocker]

[BornFromTheVoid]

NCDC have October as the warmest on record, at 0.74C above the 20th century average.

 

The the year to date is the warmest on record and the last 12 months were the warmest 12 months period on record, beating the previous record set last month.

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/10

[knocker]

2014 ranked warmest ever for Jan-Nov average of Central England Temperature | Records began in 1659 |

 

https://twitter.com/micheltsamados

 

[VillagePlank]

Here's the Hi-Score table for HadCrut4 detrended.

 

This is much more useful than repeatedly pumping fists in the air and dancing naked around the fire with your pants on your head making funny 'woot-woot' noises when a new warm record is reached on a positive trend, since it shows how far up or down from the underlying trend the anomaly is. ie comparing like with like.

 

Here's the top twenty years,

 

 

Given that 2014 is in the top ten, already, I'd say that that's quite interesting - even more interesting is the amount of 'noughties' years appearing in this hi-score table - over 50% of the records.

Edited December 2, 2014 by Sparkicle

[BornFromTheVoid]

Second warmest November on record (+0.33C) according to UAH. 3rd warmest year to date.