Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[Gray-Wolf]

Ha, ha, ha, ! so it begins eh? From tainted data from U.S. recalibrations to "we're just warming up from the L.I.A. to 'it isn't significant enough'........

 

It's as though they are calling up a super Nino just to see temps approach the 2c boundary for 'safe warming'

 

2015 is going to be a fun year eh?

[keithlucky]

NOAA's NCDC and NASA's GISS ended up with the mean value of the global mean temperature for 2014 to be about 0.02 °C higher than the second warmest year on their record, with their (different) definition of the global mean temperature, and the second year on their record is 2010 (closely followed by 2005).

Immediately, sensible people – including several climate scientists – were telling them that this difference – 0.02 °C – is so tiny that it is easily beaten by the error margin which prevents you from acquiring any confidence while deciding which year was actually *the* warmest one.'As the tweet unambiguously proves, NASA's Gavin Schmidt knew about this fact. That didn't prevent them from pushing virtually all mainstream media to publish the lie – in the very title – that:
NASA: 2014 was the warmest year'

Edited January 18, 2015 by keithlucky

[stewfox]

Ha, ha, ha, ! so it begins eh? From tainted data from U.S. recalibrations to "we're just warming up from the L.I.A. to 'it isn't significant enough'........

 

It's as though they are calling up a super Nino just to see temps approach the 2c boundary for 'safe warming'

 

2015 is going to be a fun year eh?

 

I think until folks see global warming, interest is going to remain mute. If we get a 0.01c increase in 2015 its not going to have people running for the hills.

[knocker]

This really (really) is not what a "slowdown" looks like. pic.twitter.com/lP9LVERJRP

 

Or

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-03/2014-is-likely-to-be-the-earth-s-hottest-year-ever-why-it-doesn-t-matter-.html

Edited January 18, 2015 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm beginning to think the other place has no memory of past behaviours? I seem to recall two springs, where the 'ice factory in Bering fired up, of them crying either 'record ice levels' or ice at normal prior to it then melting away to record low levels. Contributors to this thread did warn them about 'peripheral ice' and what it meant but they were adamant over there?

 

Now we have similar again with them looking to be setting themselves up for another fall should 2015 pop a Nino? Nino or not 2015 will pop a top ten temp in the record which will also be a bit of a hoot if they persist in their  'no warming since.....' meme?

 

So how long will they persist? Should it continue to be a 'lead' thing from their masters above ( as we see presently) then they will persist and folk will listen and remain complacent for , to them, the debate will still be ongoing. Another 5 years of B.A.U. as the temp record shows emphatically that we are warming ( and warming fast!).

 

What will the children born today make of this when they look back at just how we crucified them even as the evidence piled up in reims around us?

[knocker]

Nick Stokes

 

  So 2014 may not have been warmest?

[Devonian]

 

Nick Stokes

 

  So 2014 may not have been warmest?

 

 

What is 'CI'? I can't see when NS says what is it....

[BurntFishTrousers]

Uhm, Climate Impact.

[knocker]

Also an interesting post by Zeke Hausfather

 

A Deeper Look: 2014′s Warming Record and the Continued Trend Upwards

http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2015/01/a-deeper-look-2014s-warming-record-and-the-continued-trend-upwards/

[knocker]

Nick Stokes

 

 

There have been suggestions that records are a figment of adjustment processes. The TempLS plots shown are based on unadjusted GHCN and ERSST 4.

 

  Historic progress of temperature records

[BornFromTheVoid]

The pause...

 

[knocker]

HadCRUT4 announces 2014 joint warmest year with 2010.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/release/archive/2015/2014-global-temperature â€¦

[BornFromTheVoid]

Met Office decadal forecast is out (well, for 2015 to 2019)

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

 

Summary

• Averaged over the five-year period 2015-2019, forecast patterns suggest enhanced warming over land, and at high northern latitudes. There is some indication of continued cool conditions in the Southern Ocean, and of a developing cooling in the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre. The latter is potentially important for climate impacts over Europe, America and Africa.
• Averaged over the five-year period 2015-2019, global average temperature is expected to remain high and is likely to be between 0.18°C and 0.46°C above the long-term (1981-2010) average of 14.3°C. This compares with an anomaly of +0.26°C observed in 2010 and 2014, currently the warmest years on record.
• Although the forecast generally indicates that global temperatures will remain high, it is not yet possible to predict exactly when the slowdown in surface warming will end.

[VillagePlank]

The pause...

 

 

Not exactly impressive. The variance away from the (linear) trend is positive for the first half, and negative for the second. Forunately, you've regressed back far enough to average it out to make your point.

 

• Although the forecast generally indicates that global temperatures will remain high, it is not yet possible to predict exactly when the slowdown in surface warming will end.

 

 

*cough* What do you mean? That there's been a slow down in the rate of postive change in temperatures? Who'd have guessed it given the above graphic!

Edited January 28, 2015 by Sparkicle

[BornFromTheVoid]

Not exactly impressive. The variance away from the (linear) trend is positive for the first half, and negative for the second. Forunately, you've regressed back far enough to average it out to make your point.

*cough* What do you mean? That there's been a slow down in the rate of postive change in temperatures? Who'd have guessed it given the above graphic!

None of the data is mine. If you don't understand something, you could always contact the MO. Or I suppose you could take the p**s and act like different data sets, with trends starting from different points don't create different results. Up to yourself

Edited January 28, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[VillagePlank]

None of the data is mine. If you don't understand something, you could always contact the MO. Or I suppose you could take the Swearing AGAIN and act like different data sets, with trends starting from different points don't create different results. Up to yourself

 

Have I *ever* said that trends starting from different points don't create different results? Ever? Really? I think you'll find that I'm just about the last person who would stick a trend line on a time-series chart - especially one that models non-linear data!

 

If you think that's acceptable, that's up to you.

Edited January 28, 2015 by Sparkicle

[BornFromTheVoid]

Have I *ever* said that trends starting from different points don't create different results? Ever? Really? I think you'll find that I'm just about the last person who would stick a trend line on a time-series chart - especially one that models non-linear data!

I can't attest to what you've *ever* said, but we're all well away of your opinions on linear trends.

If you think that's acceptable, that's up to you.

If the climate science community thinks it's ok. I don't claim to be a stats expert, so whatever I think is acceptable isn't of much importance. Edited January 28, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[VillagePlank]

I can't attest to what you've *ever* said, but we're all well away of your opinions on linear trends.

If the climate science community thinks it's ok. I don't claim to be a stats expert, so whatever I think is acceptable isn't of much importance.

 

Why did you say 'I suppose you could take the p**s and act like different data sets, with trends starting from different points don't create different results' then?

 

The climate science community doesn't, though. Take at look at HadCrut and associated papers - they use stuff like cubic-splines to help 'guide the eye' and I certainly have no problem with that! They wouldn't even dream of slapping a straight line on a time-series chart. The climate blogosphere community? Well, that's something different altogether, now, isn't it?

 

Pontificating aside, it still doesn't change the fact that you posted a linear trend, from NASA (actually it looks like the work of Tamino, but you didn't bother to cite the source, so I'm guessing) under the auspices of 'no pause' 'no hiatus' and/or 'no slowdown' (my assumption - but the gif file is named 'there-is-no-pause.gif') One week later you quote a professional body - whom in it's field is a world leader - that clearly acknowledges the existence of a 'slowdown' !!

 

All other things aside - do you believe there has been a slowdown?

Edited January 28, 2015 by Sparkicle

[knocker]

Cowtan and Way 2014: Hottest or not?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Why did you say 'I suppose you could take the p**s and act like different data sets, with trends starting from different points don't create different results' then?

 

The climate science community doesn't, though. Take at look at HadCrut and associated papers - they use stuff like cubic-splines to help 'guide the eye' and I certainly have no problem with that! They wouldn't even dream of slapping a straight line on a time-series chart. The climate blogosphere community? Well, that's something different altogether, now, isn't it?

 

Pontificating aside, it still doesn't change the fact that you posted a linear trend, from NASA (actually it looks like the work of Tamino, but you didn't bother to cite the source, so I'm guessing) under the auspices of 'no pause' 'no hiatus' and/or 'no slowdown' (my assumption - but the gif file is named 'there-is-no-pause.gif') One week later you quote a professional body - whom in it's field is a world leader - that clearly acknowledges the existence of a 'slowdown' !!

 

All other things aside - do you believe there has been a slowdown?

Take the p**s, as in, not being serious, i.e., you don't pretend to act that ignorantly about trends.

The climate science community, including scientific groups like the MO, often use linear trends. Not to prove the link with CO2 or anything else, but simply as one of many ways to show the overall trend.

It was posted by somebody from another forum, not Tamino as far as I know, unless they took it from his page without citing it.

I've posted links to many things on this forum that might seem contradictory, but that's mainly because they were interesting, not my opinion, which I thought was clear.

As for my opinion on a possible slowdown, it depends on how you define it.

[BornFromTheVoid]

JMA have January 2015 as the joint warmest on record, with 2007 and 2002, all at +0.29C above the 81-10 average.

 

 

1st. 2015,2007,2002(+0.29°C)

4th. 2010(+0.21°C)

5th. 1998(+0.20°C)

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/jan_wld.html

 

 

And NASA LOTI have January 2015 as the 2nd warmest on record at +0.75C, well behind January 2007 at +0.92C

 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

[knocker]

Nick stoke's comments

 

  January GISS up from 0.72 to 0.75°C

[knocker]

 

Google Maps and GHCN adjustments

[knocker]

Second Warmest January on Record Globally

 

January 2015 was the second warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. NASA also rated January 2015 as the 2nd warmest January on record, behind January 2007, which had the warmest departure from average of any month in recorded history. January 2015's near-record warmth continues a trend of very warm months for the planet--December 2014 was the warmest December on record, and 2014 was Earth's warmest calendar year on record. Global ocean temperatures during January 2015 were the 3rd warmest on record, and global land temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in January 2015 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 7th or 5th warmest in the 37-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2920

 

And

Global warming trend unaffected by 'fiddling' with temperature data

 

http://phys.org/news/2015-02-global-trend-unaffected-fiddling-temperature.html

Edited February 19, 2015 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

looking at the PDO records it becomes apparent that we have never seen 'back to back' 2.0+ values during a negative state of the PDO since 1900?