Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just the 9th warmest November according to NASA's GISS data.

 

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

 

Still, the 2nd warmest year to date and likely to be at least the joint warmest year on record.

[Gray-Wolf]

Again I'd remind folk that 'natural forcing' has two faces one slowing our AGW warming the other augmenting it. With nearly a year of positive PDO figures can we now entertain that these naturals are flipping? 

 

We have been shown how the oceans have been sequestering heat over the period of negative naturals but this past year of record/near record global temps has been driven by ocean heat. Why are we now seeing the heat remaining at the ocean surface and no longer being subducted away from interaction with the atmosphere? Are we now seeing, in the least, the negative forcings failing ( or at worse slipping back into their positive phases?) ?

[knocker]

Nick Stokes

 

 

  November was cooler - GISS down 0.11°C

 

[knocker]

Climate Change Plays Major Role in Record European Heat

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/europe-hottest-year-on-record-climate-change

[BornFromTheVoid]

Met Office global temperature prediction for next year

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/2015-global-temp-forecast

 

So 0.52 to 0.76C above the 61-90 average, with a central estimate of 0.64C. This means somewhere from the joint 4th to the warmest year on record by a long way.

 

EDIT: So, how might the fabled, post 1997/98 mega Nino (totally not cherry picked) "pause" look by the end of 2015?

 

Edited December 17, 2014 by BornFromTheVoid

[Gray-Wolf]

Maybe not the right spot for such musing but the graph ,prior to the forecast, illustrates well that there has been no 'pause' in warming but merely a slow down from those high rates of change in the 80's and 90's?

 

The Climate Misleaders will not enjoy dealing with a resumption in warming rates and appear to have already started in their attempts to distract from the records? Do they not remember what happened when they questioned last time and employed a 'Sceptic' to examine global temps? This time around will they purely rely on dismissing all recording methodologies?

[Gray-Wolf]

Well that's a worry! I've just come across two articles that give the impression that science is saying the IPO may be faltering in its negative phase or even flopping back positive.

 

I've been postulating that this is what we have been seeing (with ocean temps up to Nov driving record global temp month) but I hate it when I find mainstream science is noting similar. I'd much rather be wrong with my feeling on AGW than right!!!

 

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/rapidly-warming-oceans-set-to-release-heat-into-the-atmosphere/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+energy-and-sustainability+%28Topic%3A+Energy+%26+Sustainability%29

 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/oceans-getting-hotter-than-anybody-realized-18139

[jonboy]

Ah John Upton at his best!!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.nasa.gov/press/goddard/2014/december/nasa-satellites-measure-increase-of-sun-s-energy-absorbed-in-the-arctic/#.VJQBCv8Nt

 

More data on the impacts of Arctic amplification and possible feedback mechanisms.

 

Jonboy, why follow the paper trail then and read the paper?

[knocker]

 

Prospects for surface temperatures 2014 final

[Gray-Wolf]

Well with the other place already quibbling about the stats ( and whether the prospect of measured increases within the error bars are relevant?) even though they never wondered the same about the low increases over the period 98' to 2011?........ what if the temps were all at the top of those error bars since 98'????

 

Where are temps today really if we cannot trust the data and it's all down to personal choice as to where the 'error' lies ( LOL!)

Edited January 4, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[knocker]

  Monckton and Goddard - O Lord!

 

Viscount Monckton of Brenchley has produced yet another in his series of the "Great Pause" - now 18 years 3 months. He uses only the troposphere average RSS - to quote Roy Spencer  on how RSS is differing from his UAH index:

"But, until the discrepancy is resolved to everyone’s satisfaction, those of you who REALLY REALLY need the global temperature record to show as little warming as possible might want to consider jumping ship, and switch from the UAH to RSS dataset."

[VillagePlank]

Honest question.

 

Why are surface temperatures reported to 3 significant figures? HadCrut as an example. Almost certainly field measurements are only good to about 1/10th degC. I suppose I could put an argument to two significant figures (on the basis of subsequent processing), but certainly not three. The third digit is surely meaningless?

 

This picture

 

 

From here is useful

[Gray-Wolf]

Would 'rounding' not lead to a more 'stepped' temp series Sparks?

[VillagePlank]

Would 'rounding' not lead to a more 'stepped' temp series Sparks?

 

It always stepped since it's discrete values however small. I've sent an email to the MetOffice, and hopefully, I'll get a reply. My hunch is that the published data sets are 'intermediate' values that are designed for use in further computation, and hence three significant figures to minimise rounding errors.

Edited January 5, 2015 by Sparkicle

[VillagePlank]

Here's the reply

 

The data files are provided to three decimal places as this is considered to be sufficiently high precision for data set users' needs. The precision at which data is provided in the data files should not be taken as an indication of observational uncertainty. Uncertainty estimates are provided in the HadCRUT4 data files and these should be used for this purpose.

The HadCRUT4 uncertainty estimates are calculated by propagating uncertainties through the dataset construction process.  The paper describing the methods used to derived the uncertainty estimates can be found here:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/HadCRUT4_accepted.pdf

The uncertainty in the average of observations is related to the standard deviation of observational error. If observational errors were completely independent then uncertainty in the mean would be expected to reduce with increasing number of observations at a rate of sigma/sqrt(N), where sigma is standard deviation of observational error and N is the number of observations contributing to the average.
However, some factors contributing to measurement uncertainty are not completely independent between observations, so the uncertainty in the average reduces at a less rapid rate.  Nevertheless, uncertainty in the mean can be expected to be smaller than uncertainty in the individual observations.

In practice the largest contribution to uncertainty in global averages for HadCRUT4 is in fact that arising from limitations in global observational coverage, and not measurement accuracy.

[VillagePlank]

Worth noting the polite and robust reply. It'll take me some time to get through the paper to see if I agree, but that's because, comparitavely, I am an idiot. One thing's for sure, no-one is even remotely suggesting that some sort of measurement error of 1/10th has anything to do with uncertainty; so, hopefully, we can put that one to bed.

 

Interestingly, if you are unsure about something, it appears to me the scientists are delighted to respond, and point you in directions you may not have considered. This was no FoI request, just an email questioning methodology.

[BornFromTheVoid]

JMA are the first to arrive full a full years data, placing 2014 top as the warmest year on record.

 

 

 

1st. 2014(+0.27°C),

2nd. 1998(+0.22°C),

3rd. 2013,2010(+0.20°C),

5th. 2005(+0.17°C)

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html

[Gray-Wolf]

Agreed Sparks, if in doubt go to the horses mouth for an answer. Oddly certain groupings within the forum based climate debate never seem to want to resort to this direct approach? I have always found the scientists both insightful and polite when i have sought answers from them ( and prompt in replying even though they are fully employed in their work).

 

Thanks for that BFTV ! So an ENSO Neutral year has pipped a super Nino year eh?

 

With us also seeing just seeing two of the warmest Nina periods on record during this 'faux pause' I have to wonder " how long before we see Nina's bettering past Nino year temps ( normal Nino's not 'Supers')".

 

I would have thought that this would make the Paid 'Climate Misleaders' job of disinformation even more difficult esp. with some folk already forecasting 2015 to be another record warm year?

 

Lets see what the other agencies tell us regarding atmospheric temps in 2014.

[knocker]

 

December TempLS up 0.045°C - some 2014 records likely

[knocker]

RELEASE 15-010

NASA, NOAA Find 2014 Warmest Year in Modern Record

 

 

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record/#.VLk2a8npVkd

[Gray-Wolf]

Well there we have it! In this alleged Hiatus period we now have 9 of the top ten years occurring since the turn of the century with only 98' ,and its 'Super Nino' bucking the trend?

 

How can anyone, accepting of the data, say that we are not continuing to warm? 

 

So we can expect some 'squirrels' from the other place to distract from the news ( or just plain denial of the data).

 

With the Arctic warming even faster than the rest of the globe how would things look with its warming included?

[knocker]

El Nino may be coming, warns Jim Hansen, & more heat.. "If 2015 is sig warmer than 2014, there is clearly no hiatus." http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2015/20150116_Temperature2014.pdf â€¦

[knocker]

Global warming made 2014 a record hot year – in animated graphics

[keithlucky]

 

RELEASE 15-010

NASA, NOAA Find 2014 Warmest Year in Modern Record

 

 

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record/#.VLk2a8npVkd

 

quote

John R. Christy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville who is known for his skepticism about the seriousness of global warming, pointed out in an interview that 2014 had surpassed the other record-warm years by only a few hundredths of a degree, well within the error margin of global temperature measurements.

“Since the end of the 20th century, the temperature hasn’t done much,†Dr. Christy said. “It’s on this kind of warmish plateau.†— CNBC