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Any correlation between mild winters and warm summers


qwertyK

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex

The Met Office say that this January was the 6th warmest on record, so obviously not that mild in the scheme of things, with an average temp of 5.6C, but the warmest since 2007. Is there any correlation between mild winters and above average summers? Last February we had some very mild tempreature (albeit some pretty cold weather too) and had record breaking heat in the summer and across Europe. Europe has also been pretty mild, especially in Russia and in the last few days southern Europe has seen temps into the 20s. Does this mean 2020 will have another hot or record breaking summer? Similar winters to this such as 2008 and 2007 were followed by cool, wet summers but could that be atributed to a period of wet and cold summers anyway (2007-2012). Summer 2018 and 2019 were both hot, can we expect it again this year? Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
13 hours ago, qwertyK said:

The Met Office say that this January was the 6th warmest on record, so obviously not that mild in the scheme of things, with an average temp of 5.6C, but the warmest since 2007. Is there any correlation between mild winters and above average summers? Last February we had some very mild tempreature (albeit some pretty cold weather too) and had record breaking heat in the summer and across Europe. Europe has also been pretty mild, especially in Russia and in the last few days southern Europe has seen temps into the 20s. Does this mean 2020 will have another hot or record breaking summer? Similar winters to this such as 2008 and 2007 were followed by cool, wet summers but could that be atributed to a period of wet and cold summers anyway (2007-2012). Summer 2018 and 2019 were both hot, can we expect it again this year? Will 2020 be the warmest year on record?

Summer 2019 had some hot weather, but I wouldn't class it as hot overall. There were many dull and coolish days between june and august 2019.

Yes, we had very hot weather and a couple of very warm weeks in july, a hot spell in late june, and some very warm weather in late august. But, for the most part it was generally a mediocre summer, and nothing like summer 2018.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

Summer 2020 will start off warm and sunny, with a sunnier than average June, but will deteriorate once we reach mid july. August will be poor.

It also seems that summers when the Euros are taking place tend to be average or poor(2016,2012,2008,2004,2000 etc). Whereas World Cup summers tend to coincide with a hotter summer(2018,2014,

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
15 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Summer 2019 had some hot weather, but I wouldn't class it as hot overall. There were many dull and coolish days between june and august 2019.

Yes, we had very hot weather and a couple of very warm weeks in july, a hot spell in late june, and some very warm weather in late august. But, for the most part it was generally a mediocre summer, and nothing like summer 2018.

But we had the hottest temp recorded in the UK and Western  Europe was ridiculously hot, 46C recorded in France remember ? August was an anomaly apart from some warmth at the end 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
20 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

But we had the hottest temp recorded in the UK and Western  Europe was ridiculously hot, 46C recorded in France remember ? August was an anomaly apart from some warmth at the end 

So what? it was the hottest temp recorded, but the previous summer was much warmer and sunnier for longer periods.

Even when Europe is hot, the UK can sometimes be cold or cool. Summer 2007 was a similar affair in europe.

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

I know it was very hot for a couple of days, but for the most part, it was cloudy and miserable before and after that very hot day. Summer 19 wasn't that great. Yes, it has nice spells of weather, but it wasn't special.

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
4 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

So what? it was the hottest temp recorded, but the previous summer was much warmer and sunnier for longer periods.

Even when Europe is hot, the UK can sometimes be cold or cool. Summer 2007 was a similar affair in europe.

Overall though 2019 was the second hottest year on record. The USA had a relatively cool summer, that figure came from Europe and Asia 

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I know it was very hot for a couple of days, but for the most part, it was cloudy and miserable before and after that very hot day. Summer 19 wasn't that great. Yes, it has nice spells of weather, but it wasn't special.

I can remember that we had some hot, unseasonably warm  weather towards the end of May. Was in Bristol and it was between 25c and 30

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

 

9 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

I can remember that we had some hot, unseasonably warm  weather towards the end of May. Was in Bristol and it was between 25c and 30

If you are referring to May 2019, then that's unlikely. The highest max for last May was 25.8c in Kinlochwere on the 15th.

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

 

If you are referring to May 2019, then that's unlikely. The highest max for last May was 25.8c in Kinlochwere on the 15th.

Maybe not 30c it was definitely 24c-25c in Bristol though or maybe humidity made it feel more like 30. I remember how warm April 2018 was. And October 2018 was freakishly warm, 25c at times. The autumn this year was nice and cold. Max temp in Oct was only 20-21c on the first day. In single figures by the end of the month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
7 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Maybe not 30c it was definitely 24c-25c in Bristol though or maybe humidity made it feel more like 30. I remember how warm April 2018 was. And October 2018 was freakishly warm, 25c at times. The autumn this year was nice and cold. Max temp in Oct was only 20-21c on the first day. In single figures by the end of the month. 

I'm not sure to be honest - records show that the maximum temperature for Bristol for the whole month of May 2019 was only 20c!

April 2018 had a nice warm-ish spell mid month, and October 2018 had a warm spell from the 9th-13th.

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
Just now, mb018538 said:

I'm not sure to be honest - records show that the maximum temperature for Bristol for the whole month of May 2019 was only 20c!

April 2018 had a nice warm-ish spell mid month, and October 2018 had a warm spell from the 9th-13th.

Oops - it was April 2019. 

 

February 2017 was quite mild, we even saw 18c.

The Arctic is much colder than average right now 

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

I'm not sure to be honest - records show that the maximum temperature for Bristol for the whole month of May 2019 was only 20c!

April 2018 had a nice warm-ish spell mid month, and October 2018 had a warm spell from the 9th-13th.

I love how the hotties,warmsters etc love to exaggerate the warmth, and downplay the cold weather during the summer months lol.

Usually comes from people who think sitting in the beer garden today is nice and warm. Makes me wonder how they survive anything past 21c.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

The yrs that spring to mind regarding mild winters followed by warm summers would be winter 88\89 being followed by the warm summer of 89 . The mild winter of 89/90 being followed by the  fairly warm summer of 1990. 

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Posted
  • Location: Carvoeiro, The Algarve
  • Location: Carvoeiro, The Algarve
3 hours ago, qwertyK said:

I can remember that we had some hot, unseasonably warm  weather towards the end of May. Was in Bristol and it was between 25c and 30

Bristol's mid-May was pretty warm and sunny, but by half term week (last week of May) it went decidedly cool and wet. Early,mid June was cool and wet; in fact a couple of days in June were cold, 9c on a couple of days. Later in June it warmed up and mist of July was v warm, but went downhill at the end. August was quite cool, and very changeable. Summer 19 was mixed, some warm spells, some cool. 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

"Is there any corrolation between mild winters and warm summers"?...... in a word, no.

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Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

No. 

Winter 2007-08 came off a duff summer, likewise 1988-89 which is regarded one of the mildest ever. 

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
4 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Summer 2020 will start off warm and sunny, with a sunnier than average June, but will deteriorate once we reach mid july. August will be poor.

It also seems that summers when the Euros are taking place tend to be average or poor(2016,2012,2008,2004,2000 etc). Whereas World Cup summers tend to coincide with a hotter summer(2018,2014,

thats not a bad shout re Euros and  World cups

Euros :

1988 awful summer

1992 cool wet summer

1996 pretty average summer

2000 meh summer which led to the wettest Autumn on record

2004 pretty mediocre

2008 poor summer

2012 cool and wet

2016 wet cold start better later

World cups:

1986 crap summer

1990 good summer 

1994 good summer hot July

1998 meh summer

2002 year of nothingness

2006 hot summer

2010 good start got worse later?

2014 warm June July crap august

2018 hot summer

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
5 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Summer 2019 had some hot weather, but I wouldn't class it as hot overall. There were many dull and coolish days between june and august 2019.

Yes, we had very hot weather and a couple of very warm weeks in july, a hot spell in late june, and some very warm weather in late august. But, for the most part it was generally a mediocre summer, and nothing like summer 2018.

It wasn’t a hot summer but it was a warm summer, and at least here I would safely categorise it as above average in terms of ‘nice’ weather. June was disappointing but July and August were largely fine (August had a cool middle third bookended by two warm, and at times hot, thirds).

A mediocre summer in my mind would be any of 2015, 2016 and 2017.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Summer 2015 overall was fairly cool apart from a hot week in late June / early July.  Summer 2016 was a generally warm summer though not outstanding.  Summer 2017 had a warm June with a hot spell in it, but the rest of the summer was fairly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
Just now, North-Easterly Blast said:

Summer 2015 overall was fairly cool apart from a hot week in late June / early July.  Summer 2016 was a generally warm summer though not outstanding.  Summer 2017 had a warm June with a hot spell in it, but the rest of the summer was fairly average.

Globally though, 2015 was the warmest on average followed by 2016. 

2015 had an incredibly mild December, was more like spring. Strangely though, in 2016 our hottestt temps were in September, we had two days of about 32C. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
  • Location: Brentwood, Essex
4 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I think people shouldn't be knocking the warm weather when it arrives,  we are usually stuck in cool and damp conditions for half the year.

I am fine with weather up to 32-33C but beyond that it is a little too much. 27 is my ideal temp. 

 

Its just worrying to know that whilst the warmth in the UK is never too bad, you know that if you have 35C in the UK its going to be more like 40C or more in France or Spain. 

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