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Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
Posted
5 hours ago, Thunder Snow said:

How's it looking for Cumbria 

I was thinking the same - an amber rain warning might be coming for there....

Posted
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
  • Location: Stoke-on-Trent, Norton. 549ft (167m) ASL
Posted
2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Latest Met Office forecast suggesting 24 hours of 50 - 60mph here. Lucky that I haven't put up the new fence yet.

Still haven't had chance to re-tack the roof lining back on top of the shed that tore off (thankyou Ciara...)  Still too gusty to do it safely ><

Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
Posted
1 hour ago, knocker said:

The gfs has Dennis down to 917mb!!

78.thumb.png.d61d0610b85729bcbf0f1d159160b923.png

I think the record is 920mb in 1929!

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Looking like the rain will be the notable thing here and the warm night. We shall see.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: Warm/Dry enough for a t-shirt. Winter: Cold enough for a scarf.
  • Location: Gourock 10m asl
Posted

At least the guy in the Ciara thread who was raging he couldn't pronounce it will be happier this weekend.

  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
Posted

You should have a look at Twitter, people cannot decide whether it is Denis, Dennis... or even Denise as I saw earlier...

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: howth,east dublin city
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: howth,east dublin city
Posted

Are we really going to see a sub 930mb come sunday night knocker

Posted
  • Location: Priors Marston Warks 400’ asl
  • Location: Priors Marston Warks 400’ asl
Posted

Regarding ferries, they can cope perfectly well at sea in a storm.  The problem is manoeuvring a shallow-draft vessel with high, flat sides at slow speed in a restricted area.  Harbour entrances can also pose special difficulties, so it all depends upon the wind speed and direction in the harbour manoeuvring area and the sea conditions in the final approach and entrance.  These can change very quickly ( with a major wind shift etc) so you just have to monitor their bulletins closely and hope for the best!

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
3 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

Are we really going to see a sub 930mb come sunday night knocker

More like Sat midday as Exeter have it down to 926mb

PPVK89.thumb.gif.c71b8a8ff76366be91eccdb1c6656d4c.gif

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

 

42 minutes ago, BurntFishTrousers said:

 

I'm not sure that is correct. As far as I can see that is the first low which deepens in mid Atlantic before Dennis arrives south of it and then undergoes explosive cyclogenisis as the upper troughs merge This the surface sequence

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1530400.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1595200.thumb.png.f65d2cd63e7f57933bf3ea36e8589ec4.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1638400.thumb.png.1ca69e2dc9ef0f1723a5daa54271ce88.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1724800.thumb.png.18feb7fe012a412202ba37e974ac691b.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1768000.thumb.png.63ef4468de34ac7a72ac070b1220171d.png

 

Edited by knocker
  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Weather Preferences: Snow cold frost
  • Location: Carlisle
Posted
26 minutes ago, knocker said:

 

I'm not sure that is correct. As far as I can see that is the first low which deepens in mid Atlantic before Dennis arrives south of it and then undergoes explosive cyclogenisis as the upper troughs merge This the surface sequence

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1530400.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1595200.thumb.png.f65d2cd63e7f57933bf3ea36e8589ec4.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1638400.thumb.png.1ca69e2dc9ef0f1723a5daa54271ce88.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1724800.thumb.png.18feb7fe012a412202ba37e974ac691b.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-1768000.thumb.png.63ef4468de34ac7a72ac070b1220171d.png

 

How much rain for Cumbria:/

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

I'm afraid that's way above my pay grade but the ecm is giving a weekend total of around 3" but you best keep an eye on METO updates

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_48hr_inch-1897600.thumb.png.2b58314f1d61d99436a7867f18d436f1.png

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Weather Preferences: Snow cold frost
  • Location: Carlisle
Posted
18 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm afraid that's way above my pay grade but the ecm is giving a weekend total of around 3" but you best keep an eye on METO updates

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-precip_48hr_inch-1897600.thumb.png.2b58314f1d61d99436a7867f18d436f1.png

Great thats all we need, but the metoffice kinda underestimated the rain from last weekend 

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted
1 hour ago, CheesepuffScott said:

You should have a look at Twitter, people cannot decide whether it is Denis, Dennis... or even Denise as I saw earlier...

Same thing happens nearly every time. Unless it's a name that's easy to spell and only has one way of spelling it. 

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
22 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Great thats all we need, but the metoffice kinda underestimated the rain from last weekend 

Well I wouldn't be over confidant that the ecm will get it correct

Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
Posted
1 hour ago, inkermanhero said:

Regarding ferries, they can cope perfectly well at sea in a storm.  The problem is manoeuvring a shallow-draft vessel with high, flat sides at slow speed in a restricted area.  Harbour entrances can also pose special difficulties, so it all depends upon the wind speed and direction in the harbour manoeuvring area and the sea conditions in the final approach and entrance.  These can change very quickly ( with a major wind shift etc) so you just have to monitor their bulletins closely and hope for the best!

you are correct, high sided vessels have issues with windage, however most ferries have twin screws, twin rudders and also bow thrusters, tugs are available at the main ports though if required, 

Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
Posted
17 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Same thing happens nearly every time. Unless it's a name that's easy to spell and only has one way of spelling it. 

Oh yes! And it's Storm Ellen / Helen / Elen next. Maybe Elenn too. I understand that some people may not be the best of spellers but it doesn't help that the wrong name ends up trending because of the overuse of it.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Priors Marston Warks 400’ asl
  • Location: Priors Marston Warks 400’ asl
Posted

Viking, you are right, of course but fifty knots on the beam of a ferry is a mighty force and it is all about risk management for the harbour authority.  Berthing is an exact science and you can’t take chances with 40-50,000 tons of steel when a few feet either way makes all the difference between success and disaster.  It is the closure of ports that stops the ferries and, if they are at sea when it happens, they stay safely at sea until the port is opened again or go elsewhere.  Happens regularly in severe weather.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Fairlight,nr H,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Fairlight,nr H,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
Posted

GFS 00z develops a potent secondary feature. Xc weather calling for 82mph gusts and a sustained 53mph wind at 3pm on Sunday in my locale.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Thunder & Lightning, Snow.
  • Location: North Cornwall 187ft asl
Posted

Metosat airmass image

meteosat-msg_airmass_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.jpg

Posted
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
  • Location: Atherstone on Stour: 160ft asl
Posted
WWW.WXCHARTS.COM

A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots

Manually run the sequence through for Saturday and Sunday. It's just a wall of water for the South & Midlands

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
Posted

Very specific amber rain warnings out for 3 areas now quite localised though ..

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Amber rain warnings issued for the following areas on Saturday and Sunday

North West England

  • Greater Manchester
  • Lancashire

South West England

  • Devon
  • Torbay

Wales

  • Blaenau Gwent
  • Bridgend
  • Caerphilly
  • Cardiff
  • Merthyr Tydfil
  • Monmouthshire
  • Neath Port Talbot
  • Newport
  • Powys
  • Rhondda Cynon Taf
  • Torfaen

Yorkshire & Humber

  • North Yorkshire
  • West Yorkshire

Amber rain warning issued for the following areas on Sunday ONLY

London & South East England

  • Brighton and Hove
  • East Sussex
  • Hampshire
  • Kent
  • Surrey
  • West Sussex

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/accessible-uk-warnings#warningCard1

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