COVID-19 Pandemic

[Snipper]

2 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Hoover the virus up, novel idea. ha.

Boom boom!

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:

There must be something we don't know about.

Could it be that the NHS is in such a bad state that even a few workers taking time off to sort childcare would lead to chaos? 

I think it is pretty obvious that the LCU , ventilator issue is the most worrying. I'm sure i read that even in quietish times the NHS uses around 70% of its LCU capacity. Germany has 20,000 for its population and the figs today suggests they have had only a handful of fatalities, so far. German manufacturer, name escapes me, is one of world's main ventilator producers, so for them i guess they're already ramping up production.

[Azazel]

4 minutes ago, Tilly said:

What would be really helpful is the figures for those under 60 who have needed critical care. How many? and whether that have underlying conditions or not. It’s all very well saying the elderly are most at risk (no doubt they are) but people are really hanging on to the notion that it’s ‘just’ the elderly that this virus is affecting. Really though the younger people will get priority treatment over the elderly so they have a better chance of survival but we’re not really hearing about those. More elderly will also obviously die because of this. But I’d like to know, say for instance there was no Medical care, how many people under 60 would succumb to this? That would give a more true picture as to what’s going on here and maybe when presented with the facts People would be more inclined to take this seriously as they should. Yes it might scare some people but I think people need a certain amount of fear to behave accordingly. Knowledge is power. 

It would be helpful if not terrifying. I wonder if the government know this and worry it will cause outright panic.

[kold weather]

Just now, Snipper said:

So you would have to gone into lock down today?

Personally, not a lock down, that can come in the next few weeks. I'm *ok* with where we are, it just needed to be more explicit, for example gatherings are banned, not just advised. Pubs, resturants are to be closed, etc. Yes it will require the chancellor to find money to support these places, however it will help to reduce social contact. By not outright closing them but suggesting people not using it, you may as well close it for the damage that is going to. I'd also seriously think about rising SSP to 300 pounds per week, because that is IMO one of the largest problems to come.

Small buisnesses clearly need huge help through this, so something must be done on that front.

I'm still ok with schools staying open, I think the point of closure is coming up though, I suspect there is an effort to try and keep it going until Easter now. Then after easter closed for all but essential workers, and only 1-2 hub schools  in an area to condense and save on staffing needs. Something must be setup for Yr.11 ib particular and A level students to use at home whilst schools are shut.

My biggest gripe is quite a few of the features brought in today should have really come 7 days ago. I think there is a hint they accept this when they said the timeframe has had to move forward as its moved quicker than expected.

[alexisj9]

50 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Hi Alex, have you symptoms? I hope your OK, also just a quick shout out to any of the menbers who are not posting recently... I've noticed Feb blizzard has not been seen for a while... Let us know how your doing guys. 

Yes I think they started with that headache I had last week, thought it was cause I stopped using the codiene after my op, after a few days, still had the headache but with a runny nose, so I thought it's a cold, started a dry cough a few days ago, do have a fever, had the runs this morning, but I'm not out of breath, have been ill for longer than seven days though altogether, and the cough is getting worse and also not so dry anymore. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Is it not concerning we are currently running a 3.5% death rate even now whilst hospitals aren't too stretched??

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I think it is pretty obvious that the LCU , ventilator issue is the most worrying. I'm sure i read that even in quietish times the NHS uses around 70% of its LCU capacity. Germany has 20,000 for its population and the figs today suggests they have had only a handful of fatalities, so far. German manufacturer, name escapes me, is one of world's main ventilator producers, so for them i guess they're already ramping up production.

I suspect probably most countries are rapidly trying to source Ventilator parts/materials. I think even the worlds best health service will probably get snowed under by this, its just how long they can last before things really go down the pan...and they will...

[Bristawl Si]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Is it not concerning we are currently running a 3.5% death rate even now whilst hospitals aren't too stretched??

It isnt that high though, because we know that some people arent being tested.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

It isnt that high though, because we know that some people arent being tested.

But isn't that the same for most countries? Yet some have far lower death rates 

[Summer Sun]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Is it not concerning we are currently running a 3.5% death rate even now whilst hospitals aren't too stretched??

I suspect the true death rate is far lower if you put 55 against the predicited range so far off 5,000 to 10,000 cases that percentage will tumble

Once they get the new test out which will show if you've already had it or not they may be able to get some slightly more realistic numbers

[Bristawl Si]

6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I think it is pretty obvious that the LCU , ventilator issue is the most worrying. I'm sure i read that even in quietish times the NHS uses around 70% of its LCU capacity. Germany has 20,000 for its population and the figs today suggests they have had only a handful of fatalities, so far. German manufacturer, name escapes me, is one of world's main ventilator producers, so for them i guess they're already ramping up production.

This is the German co i referred to. This excerpt from Reuters:

Germany's Draegerwerk said its government placed an order for 10,000 ventilators for intensive respiratory care, the medical gear maker's largest order ever and equivalent to a year's normal production.

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

I suspect the true death rate is far lower if you put 55 against the predicited range so far off 5,000 to 10,000 cases that percentage will tumble

Once they get the new test out which will show if you've already had it or not they may be able to get some slightly more realistic numbers

Apparently, latest estimates is up to 50,000 cases. 

Avoid office, pubs and travel to stop virus - PM

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Other "drastic" steps include more working from home and whole households staying at home for 14 days if one person has symptoms.

 

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Beverley Lass said:

I wouldn't have thought many can actually 'work from home'  in reality.

That's what I was thinking...I can hardly bring six polytunnels home with me!

[Bristawl Si]

Hope peeps dont mind me posting stuff re the German pos.

A bit more on the German situ re equipment; source ft.com:

German manufacturer Drägerwerk AG said in a regulatory statement on Friday that the order by the federal government would be stretched over the entire year.

The Lübeck-based company, one of the world's leading producers of ventilators, added: “For this, the production capacity in Lübeck will be expanded considerably. In addition, Dräger will also deliver personal protection equipment for hospital personnel. Both will help shore up the service in the healthcare sector also with regard to the spread of the coronavirus.”

German hospitals already are among the best equipped in Europe when it comes to both intensive care beds and the availability of ventilators. According to the government, Germany has around 28,000 intensive care beds, of which 25,000 are equipped with ventilators.

A spokesman for Spectaris, the German industry federation that represents medical devices makers, said: “At the moment there are sufficient supplies of everything. What is important is to keep the number of new infections low. Otherwise we could see shortages.”

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yes I think they started with that headache I had last week, thought it was cause I stopped using the codiene after my op, after a few days, still had the headache but with a runny nose, so I thought it's a cold, started a dry cough a few days ago, do have a fever, had the runs this morning, but I'm not out of breath, have been ill for longer than seven days though altogether, and the cough is getting worse and also not so dry anymore. 

If it gets any worse that cough, and your breathing gets laboured, don't hesitate to get it checked out. Hopefully you have another kind of bug... Do take care.. 

[Azazel]

14 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yes I think they started with that headache I had last week, thought it was cause I stopped using the codiene after my op, after a few days, still had the headache but with a runny nose, so I thought it's a cold, started a dry cough a few days ago, do have a fever, had the runs this morning, but I'm not out of breath, have been ill for longer than seven days though altogether, and the cough is getting worse and also not so dry anymore. 

How long were you using codeine for if you don’t mind me asking?

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Bristawl Si]

Imperial College Covid-19 team, who are advising the govt.

Report on Sky News now. 

8-fold higher demand for critical care beds coming.

Journo presenting on sky news now, says the report, which supported this eve's Boris address, says

"It is very grim reading."

Serious ramp up. Grim!

Edited March 16, 2020 by Bristle boy

[Gowon]

14 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Yes I think they started with that headache I had last week, thought it was cause I stopped using the codiene after my op, after a few days, still had the headache but with a runny nose, so I thought it's a cold, started a dry cough a few days ago, do have a fever, had the runs this morning, but I'm not out of breath, have been ill for longer than seven days though altogether, and the cough is getting worse and also not so dry anymore. 

I'm pretty sure when a cough starts getting wet it's your body fighting off the infection..

Is it a painful cough?

[cyclonic happiness]

Maybe the one good thing to come out of all this would be the abolition of zero hour contracts?

I think that people aren't financially able to stop working, will be one of the biggest groups of 'spreaders'.

Also, state funded child care..... this is supposed to be the 21st century, yet worker rights have gone backwards

[Man With Beard]

2 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Imperial College Covid-19 team, who are advising the govt.

Report on Sky News now. 

8-fold higher demand for critical care beds coming.

Journo presenting on sky news now says the report, which supported this eve's Boris address says

"It is very grim reading."

Serious ramp up. Grim!

The thing is, the current situation, even an 8 fold increase in demand, surely is going to look like peanuts in 4 weeks time if the aim is herd immunity. 

Though the tone of Boris's message tonight made me think they aren't so keen on holding out for herd immunity any more, sounds like they actually don't want us to catch it now, bit of a change from last week? 

[Bristawl Si]

Watch Sky News now

[Summer Sun]

9 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

Our council have taken the decision themselves to close the hippodrome until further notice from tomorrow it seems our council is going a few steps ahead of the government to try and keep the figures up here as low as possible

[Azazel]

Apparently the report that advised today’s announcement. As I thought, suggests the UK and USA are sharing methodology.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

The thing is, the current situation, even an 8 fold increase in demand, surely is going to look like peanuts in 4 weeks time if the aim is herd immunity. 

Though the tone of Boris's message tonight made me think they aren't so keen on holding out for herd immunity any more, sounds like they actually don't want us to catch it now, bit of a change from last week? 

The aim is not herd immunity. Our health system, fragile as it is even now, would collapse should we let people catch it. It is about taking action at the right times to slow the spread of the virus to a) minimise social and economic disruption and b) let our health service cope better.

Not that I think we are doing enough just yet, but hey I'm not a scientist!