Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Zak M]

12z ECM @120

Not bad!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120 with UKMO for comparison:

ECM holds on to the high pressure further east here, I would expect the ECM to be the best of the bunch at T144 given my comparison of models at that time a few posts back...

Edited May 28, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144:

Enough of a block holding on in there, I wonder if there is still scope for this to strengthen a bit in future runs?  

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144:

Enough of a block holding on in there, I wonder if there is still scope for this to strengthen a bit in future runs?  

 

Maybe, but we may have to accept that things will become less settled. Maybe a bit of a reset before it settles down again.

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Maybe, but we may have to accept that things will become less settled. Maybe a bit of a reset before it settles down again.

For sure, a cooler interlude, how much rain still an open question, but an interlude it is in my opinion.

[Djdazzle]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

For sure, a cooler interlude, how much rain still an open question, but an interlude it is in my opinion.

True - don’t think it will be the washout that some are predicting.

[Mike Poole]

LOL didn't see that coming!  ECM T192:

Anyone for snow? T216:

Edited May 28, 2020 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Brace yourselves for the ultimate tan stripper.. Ntly in June!! Can't they come along in December to March.. I don't think it will be out staying its welcome though. 

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

LOL didn't see that coming!  ECM T192:

Anyone for snow?

Summer is over.

[Djdazzle]

Look at the heat over North Africa. If we have lots of amplitude this summer, we will no doubt tap into it. Like in 2019.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Metwatch]

6 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

Only got 1 more post left today so would be a shame to waste it!!!!!!!...anyway, looking at the GEFS 6z some sort of cool plunge is the form horse beyond the next 7 days or so but there is hope that a good warm up could occur towards mid June..my message is, enjoy this beautiful summery late spring weather because it looks like a change to cooler & more changeable ( by definition unsettled) will follow..for a time at least!

 

 

one more post today??

[Metwatch]

Also looking at models, yes will be warm and maybe thundery as that low from the south inches it's way warm and showers interesting combo. very high dewpoints on gfs too, 18 degrees to the east. Then northerly possible afterwards by friday? Not to much rain still yet mainly showery by the looks of it

[Guest]

 

9 minutes ago, MATT said:

Brace yourselves for the ultimate tan stripper.. Ntly in June!! Can't they come along in December to March.. I don't think it will be out staying its welcome though. 

 

Watered down northerlies are all the rage in January, come June they get their act together.....

Ghastly output from the ECM 12Z, timing differs by model but most have a northerly shock and currently a pretty potent. Hopefully its a case of it getting watered down from now on in and being less bad opposed to mid winter like! 

Jury is also out on initial trough development through midweek, GFS clearly overcooking moisture as it likes to but ICON & GEM do bring some pretty unsettled conditions too before the northerly.

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Guest

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hints of a recovery by day 10 perhaps! We had a Ntly just the other week, and tbh.. I've felt more bite from a woman with know teeth.. They don't even seem to pack that much punch even in Winter these days. 

[Metwatch]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Are we seeing another run? It’s utterly abysmal next Wednesday!

Very evocative to June 10th 2019 this was a big washout, 40mm of rain fell in S/SE England I remember right.

 

Gosh i remember June 10th or something even in Midlands. Was at one point around 4 clock, just 8 degrees here. Madness!

[Mike Poole]

Anyone else remember when it did snow in June?  

I was 4.

[Metwatch]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Anyone else remember when it did snow in June?  

I was 4.

i was aroud t- 28 years till i was born lol.

[Djdazzle]

I’d actually put up with a repeat of that 1975 chart, as long as we got the summer which followed it!

But let’s face it, northerlies don’t even deliver snow in winter these days!

[Don]

20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Anyone else remember when it did snow in June?  

I was 4.

15 months before I entered this wonderful world!

[Zak M]

27 minutes ago, Jacky said:

i was aroud t- 28 years till i was born lol.

Same! 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Zak M

[Djdazzle]

4 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Same! 

This place is full of kids!

[Zak M]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

This place is full of kids!

Well I'm turning 17 in August so I don't think I'm that young lol

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

If the ECMs Northerly was a Southerly showing at that range it would most likely be eroded down to a one day South East special with most of the heat shunted off East, so hopefully the models will follow its own typical logic and this "arctic plume" will become a one day highlands special

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Well I'm turning 17 in August so I don't think I'm that young lol

You were born in August 2003 - some month for weather that was! And trust me, 17 is young!

Anyway, back on topic, the ECM mean is a tad less extreme than the op.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Djdazzle

[MATTWOLVES 3]

@Zak M I have grey hairs older than you.. Enjoy yourself while you can my lad. 

ECM mean agrees we have a cooler more unsettled blip on the way.. How much rain, I'm not sure! If its in the form of showers, it's pretty much gonna be a hit and miss affair.. The mean is not quite as cold as the op.. But there is definite agreement on a pressure fall.. Perhaps an Improvement beyond this, I see slight signs of a recovery of pressure further down the line.