May 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Man With Beard]

9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

12.0c to the 25th

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average
0.6 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.0c to the 25th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

So around 12.6C before corrections?

[Summer Sun]

12.2c to the 26th

1.1 above the 61 to 90 average
0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.2c to the 26th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[Scorcher]

16 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

So around 12.6C before corrections?

I'm thinking at least 12.7C, given the persistence of the warmth right to the end of the month.

It rose by 0.2C today and the warmth is only just getting going across the Midlands and the north of England.

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12.1C +0.9C above normal and rainfall at 5.4mm 9.4% of the average rainfall.

Looks like with no rainfall forecast for the rest of the month two records are coming.Driest spring on record and driest month on record. Time for that to change though.

[mb018538]

32 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I'm thinking at least 12.7C, given the persistence of the warmth right to the end of the month.

It rose by 0.2C today and the warmth is only just getting going across the Midlands and the north of England.

 

I think so too. Last 5 days all very warm, so a rise of a further 0.5-1c looks quite likely to me.

[summer blizzard]

17 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield at 12.1C +0.9C above normal and rainfall at 5.4mm 9.4% of the average rainfall.

Looks like with no rainfall forecast for the rest of the month two records are coming.Driest spring on record and driest month on record. Time for that to change though.

Aug 95? April 07?

[The PIT]

Well August 95 is in Autumn so doesn't count. April the lowest here was 1.8mm recorded in 1957 and 2007 doesn't get  a look in being around x4 wetter.  A 30 year record set to fall by the looks of it. If it does going to be a long time for the record is broken again.

[Metwatch]

The nights this spring has ended up around average actually.

 

[The PIT]

6 minutes ago, jack greens said:

The nights this spring has ended up around average actually.

 

Yup just above average here as well at the moment.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12.3C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

12.3c to the 27th

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average
0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.3c to the 27th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

Edited May 28, 2020 by Summer Sun

[mb018538]

21 hours ago, Jacky said:

The nights this spring has ended up around average actually.

 

To be expected with so much high pressure domination - cold nights and warm days, especially earlier in spring when the nights were still long. large diurnal range. Lovely!

Edited May 28, 2020 by mb018538

[Roger J Smith]

Quite early in the month SB was asking me about second half of May warmth and I generated this list using 17th-31st as :"second half" but also showing 16th-31st averages for those same years. Right now we are at about 15.2 (counting today) for 17-31 and 15.1 for 16-31. With three more days that average 18 we would reach perhaps 16.0 and be very close to tying 1992 for warmest second half of May. Then there would be the adjustments but it is interesting to note in the table that after 1922 in second place, it's quite a drop to third warmest 1784. So I feel confident in saying this will likely be at least the third warmest second half of May in the period of record and could easily finish 2nd or even first. Then there was another table shown with the CET values on the 2nd in this thread, and when all of the dozen or so 20+ CET days occurred in May -- the last of them was in 1953. So that long absence of 20+ CET days may come to an end.

Rank 17-31 __ Year __ Average (with 16-31 avg)

01 _________ 1992 __ 16.1 (15.9)

02 _________ 1922 __ 15.9 (15.6)

03 _________ 1784 __ 15.2 (15.2)

04t_________ 1788 __ 15.1 (15.0)

04t_________ 2017 __ 15.1 (15.1)

06t_________ 1833 __ 15.0 (15.3)

06t_________ 1918 __ 15.0 (15.0)

08 _________ 1964 __ 14.8 (14.7)

09t_________ 1868 __ 14.7 (14.5)

09t_________ 1947 __ 14.7 (14.5)

11 _________ 2018 __ 14.6 (14.4)

12t_________ 1822 __ 14.5 (14.4)

12t_________ 1952 __ 14.5 (14.7)

12t_________ 2012 __ 14.5 (14.1)

===========================================

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12.4C +0.9C above average rainfall at 5.4mm 9.4% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

12.5c to the 28th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average
1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.5c to the 28th
Current low this month 9.8c to the 1st

[Metwatch]

Got fairly few chilly nights next few days as an easterly flow brings in cooler airmass slightly. Could stabilize CET maybe.

[Scorcher]

Just now, Jacky said:

Got fairly few chilly nights next few days as an easterly flow brings in cooler airmass slightly. Could stabilize CET maybe.

I very much doubt that. It has been rising nicely despite the nights being relatively cool. Maxima during the day time are going to be more than high enough to offset some coolish nights.

I reckon it could end up at 12.8C before corrections now.

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

I very much doubt that. It has been rising nicely despite the nights being relatively cool. Maxima during the day time are going to be more than high enough to offset some coolish nights.

I reckon it could end up at 12.8C before corrections now.

Nights being cool? The last few days have seen 10-15C minima.

[Scorcher]

18 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Nights being cool? The last few days have seen 10-15C minima.

I think there have been local variations though. Stonyhurst which is one of the CET stations has dropped into single figures a couple of times.

But yes nothing particularly cool. I guess I was meaning cool in comparison to a summer warm spell.

[summer blizzard]

24 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think there have been local variations though. Stonyhurst which is one of the CET stations has dropped into single figures a couple of times.

But yes nothing particularly cool. I guess I was meaning cool in comparison to a summer warm spell.

Single figures is normal. People forget that in may your still looking at 6-8 to 16-18.

[mb018538]

37 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think there have been local variations though. Stonyhurst which is one of the CET stations has dropped into single figures a couple of times.

But yes nothing particularly cool. I guess I was meaning cool in comparison to a summer warm spell.

Even if it’s 8c at night....it’s been 22c during the day. Still 15c and well above average.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Nights being cool? The last few days have seen 10-15C minima.

There were quite a few cold nights in the first half. 

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

There were quite a few cold nights in the first half. 

Yes. The poster was asserting that it was rising now despite cool nights, I was simply pointing out that it was rising in fact in part because of warm nights.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP was stalled at 10 mm and seems quite likely to finish second lowest on record after the 7.9 mm of 1844. And what happened after that you may ask? Rainfall returned to normal values by July after a rather dry June. The summer of 1844 was quite cool but then so was May 1844 itself. So the trend remained stable. I don't think it has much if any predictive value anyway. 

Second driest June 1896 was somewhat closer to 2020 in temperature and it stayed quite warm to mid-June then went into a more average pattern after that. The rainfall for all three summer months in 1896 was not far from normal. 

[Scorcher]

4 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Yes. The poster was asserting that it was rising now despite cool nights, I was simply pointing out that it was rising in fact in part because of warm nights.

If you're referring to me that wasn't the case. I was responding to another poster who was suggesting cooler nights are on the way and that this would stop the CET from rising.

I really don't think the nights are going to be cool enough to stop a continued rise until the end of the month.

My point was also that they haven't been that warm anyway up to now- although I take the point that they have been above average for May.