When will we get the first thunderstorms?

[Sunny76]

Not just a rumble, but a proper overnight storm, or severe daytime storm.

My prediction is June. I think May won’t be thundery this year, but mid to late June could be the one.

Also favouring August to produce some storms this year. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Sunny76

[Freeze]

Do you mean for your area? As quite a few places already have had thunderstorms this month.

[Sunny76]

15 minutes ago, Freeze said:

Do you mean for your area? As quite a few places already have had thunderstorms this month.

London, the south east, and the wider region. 
 

 

[Zak M]

I saw a post on the model output thread yesterday I think by Singularity, saying that severe thunderstorms could be possible within the possible plume event next week.

[Sunny76]

2 minutes ago, Zak M said:

I saw a post on the model output thread yesterday I think by Singularity, saying that severe thunderstorms could be possible within the possible plume event next week.

I think there’s room for them to develop, although it doesn’t feel like it’s been warm enough for them. That being said, the cool evenings and mornings mixed with the warmer days could provide some storm activity.

It hasn’t really been humid enough, and mostly warm and dry. 

[Sunny76]

Hopefully we get one in the next few days. The switch from warm to cold, could produce some active storms.

[The PIT]

We've had our allocation of rumbles earlier this year so summer should produce is now normal.

[ChannelThunder]

I reckon the first plume will be around the 24th May. 

Really hoping for a thundery June, like in 2014 I think it was. Junes since then have generally been barren for storms IIRC.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, lancem said:

I reckon the first plume will be around the 24th May. 

Really hoping for a thundery June, like in 2014 I think it was. Junes since then have generally been barren for storms IIRC.

That’s my birthday lol.

A repeat of the 2018 late May bank holiday would be good. Those storms were one of the best. 

[Sunny76]

July 2014 was thundery. I think we had a massive thunderstorm on the Thursday after the World Cup finished. July 2013 was also good for storms.

[Zak M]

3 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

July 2014 was thundery. I think we had a massive thunderstorm on the Thursday after the World Cup finished. July 2013 was also good for storms.

Especially in Brighton.

 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

storm season has already started here..had a few storms roll through the area last weekend..plenty of storm potential for later on today.

[CheesepuffScott]

July 2014 always has a place in my mind, I'll have to look for the exact date in archives but sure it was around 20th/21st July. We had a strike in the field right behind our house 10PM at night, shook the whole house, neighbours were out.. we thought a truck had hit the place! We were aware of the storms around but didn't expect a strike so close

[Sunny76]

Still going for a thundery June. 
 

Also want an August thunderstorm in London. Hasn’t happened in years. August used to be a thundery month in the 80s and 90s, and 2004 I think.

[Met.]

No thunder in SW Sheffield since last August, I wonder if it's possible to go the entire summer without any? Probably.

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, Thundershine said:

No thunder in SW Sheffield since last August, I wonder if it's possible to go the entire summer without any? Probably.

2010 and 2011 were absent of thunder in the London region. Nothing really of any note to my mind. 2012 was also disappointing for storms in London, although the midlands and north seemed to do quite well in those years

[MP-R]

22 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

2010 and 2011 were absent of thunder in the London region. Nothing really of any note to my mind. 2012 was also disappointing for storms in London, although the midlands and north seemed to do quite well in those years

That surprises me. 2012 was pretty thundery here with a mix of rPm and plumey scenarios. It was certainly an improvement on the rather naff June and July.

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

That surprises me. 2012 was pretty thundery here with a mix of rPm and plumey scenarios. It was certainly an improvement on the rather naff June and July.

We had an afternoon storm in London in August 2012. Think it was the second or third Saturday, but apart from that, it was pretty gloomy most of the time. Only a couple of warm sunny weeks to add. 

[Weather Enthusiast91]

One interest we all seem to have in common weather wise is thunderstorms. A good storm or two would be great. The last decent thunderstorm in my area was in early May of 2016.
But I am predicting mid to late August this year. That is if we are lucky.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The current long-range model outputs are pointing towards a potentially thundery setup towards mid-June with a warm east to south-easterly flow and low pressure to the SW. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

The current long-range model outputs are pointing towards a potentially thundery setup towards mid-June with a warm east to south-easterly flow and low pressure to the SW. 

I'm not a fan of high humidity but at least this keeps the storm lovers interested!

[Sunny76]

12 minutes ago, Don said:

I'm not a fan of high humidity but at least this keeps the storm lovers interested!

If it means a decent storm, I’ll take another muggy June 2016 episode or mid July 2017. Those were the best thunderstorms for southern England during the 2010s, along with the late May 2018 storms.

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

If it means a decent storm, I’ll take another muggy June 2016 episode or mid July 2017. Those were the best thunderstorms for southern England during the 2010s, along with the late May 2018 storms.

It's the hot and sultry nights I really don't like!  I don't really remember storms in 2016 or 2017, but I do remember storms during June 2014?

Edited June 6, 2020 by Don

[DAVID SNOW]

Today for me.

[MP-R]

14 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

If it means a decent storm, I’ll take another muggy June 2016 episode or mid July 2017. Those were the best thunderstorms for southern England during the 2010s, along with the late May 2018 storms.

Only eclipsed by the late May 2017 storms here. July 2014 and 2013 also delivered in this part of the world.