Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Frosty.]

I managed to cherry pick some nice charts from the GEFS 6z and the mean looks preety decent next week..that’s it from me now..back tomoz hopefully sometime!   

Edited July 15, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Downpour]

29 minutes ago, MATT said:

I understand people's frustrations... I really do, but you can moan till the cows come home, and it still won't change the outcome.. For me there are worse things in life to worry about... For me... If we avoid a 2nd wave of Covid this Winter, then i will happy.. The weather can do what it wants to.. While I'm on the subject... Just noticed the met office app is showing unbroken sunshine symbol for early next week here in the Midlands... Stone the crows that would be most welcome..

I still think next week is looking pretty good on the whole, and certainly better than this week.. The 6z mean looks OK for much of next week. 

Looking at those mean charts the 6z Op will be a massive cold outlier. 

They don't look half bad!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

surprise surprise let the unexpected hit you between the eyes!! No theres no Cilla Black here but the cfsv2 500HPA anomalies are still painting a summery picture for the final week of July. 

 

Edited July 15, 2020 by 38.7°C

[mb018538]

29 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

surprise surprise let the unexpected hit you between the eyes!! No theres no Cilla Black here but the cfsv2 500HPA anomalies are still painting a summery picture for the final week of July. 

 

The week one anomaly isn’t really summery - Azores high stuck out west with weak cloudy ridges and muck off the Atlantic spilling in like we’ve got now. The week two chart would be better with the high off to the E/SE dragging in drier and warmer continental air. Pity the output suggests nothing along those lines.

[Downpour]

36 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

surprise surprise let the unexpected hit you between the eyes!! No theres no Cilla Black here but the cfsv2 500HPA anomalies are still painting a summery picture for the final week of July. 

 

Ha ha – call me a misery guts, but when has CFS ever been right?? Isn't it known as the Contrary Forecasting System?

Still, one can but dream!!

[NApplewhite]

1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

I managed to cherry pick some nice charts from the GEFS 6z and the mean looks preety decent next week..that’s it from me now..back tomoz hopefully sometime!  

 

Cherry picking these charts isnt really helpful to meterological analysis 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

21 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

 

Cherry picking these charts isnt really helpful to meterological analysis 

I would agree picking 1 or 2 warm members out of many many more ensembles is not all that helpfull. But the other day you posted to say August and September look pretty poor and November even worse!! Now is that really helpfull! 

Next week is looking OK, beyond that it perhaps trends more unsettled.. But best perhaps we concentrate on the next few days rather than few months. 

 

[Mark wheeler]

Ukmo 144 . No Heatwave but it certainly could be worse .

Edited July 15, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[Djdazzle]

I had to do a double take when looking at the GFS 12z at 144 - it doesn’t even resemble the UKMO, but has us in a northerly. As I mentioned earlier, the models beyond even 4 days have been shocking this summer in terms of consistency and reliability.

[Mike Poole]

Models so far at T144:

UKMO and ICON push the high in over the UK, GFS and GEM don’t, they keep it in the Atlantic.  No point looking much further until this is resolved, I would expect.  

[Frosty.]

Perhaps it would be better to focus on the short term with the Gfs 12z operational because it looks rather more like summer again during the next few days (away from the NW) a chance of 27-28c across the SE on Friday and still preety warm further s / se on Saturday..anyway, the Gfs has less chance of being wrong at this range..as for next week, I hope the Ukmo 12h is closer to the truth with high pressure building in over the u k....ps, that’s me outta here, no posts left today for this bad boy!.  

 

Edited July 15, 2020 by JON SNOW

[Zak M]

21 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Ukmo 144 . No Heatwave but it certainly could be worse .

That looks pretty decent actually...

Wonder if that tiny low to the W of Spain and Portugal could do us a favour 

Edited July 15, 2020 by Zak M

[mb018538]

Very difficult to look beyond day 6 with this much variance. UKMO wouldn’t be too bad, GEM and GFS look yuck with temps of 13-18c  

Edited July 15, 2020 by mb018538

[Djdazzle]

13 minutes ago, Zak M said:

That looks pretty decent actually...

Wonder if that tiny low to the W of Spain and Portugal could do us a favour 

Maybe, but with such disagreement at 144, there’s no guarantee that the high will be over us.

[Guest]

28 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Perhaps it would be better to focus on the short term with the Gfs 12z operational because it looks rather more like summer again during the next few days (away from the NW) a chance of 27-28c across the SE on Friday and still preety warm further s / se on Saturday..anyway, the Gfs has less chance of being wrong at this range..as for next week, I hope the Ukmo 12h is closer to the truth with high pressure building in over the u k....ps, that’s me outta here, no posts left today for this bad boy!.  

 

Whats very interesting is that in the near term both the Arpege & Arome higher res model show significantly more breaks in the cloud tomorrow across the south allowing temps to 25-27C along the Dorset and Hants coast and lower 20s much further inland than the GFS (Arome I'm looking at is still the 00z) Arpege optimistic of 26-28C both Friday and Saturday in the south.....

[Guest]

Further a field @ T144 GEM and GFS are ropey to say the least, GFS has parts of Scotland not getting above 9 or 10C for the entire working week with high pressure anchored out west. UKMO & ICON in the same camp with high pressure slap bang over the UK although still under a notable cold upper pool of air (its actually coldest pool of air at our latitude in the entire northern hemisphere) 

Given trends over the past 2-3 weeks now if I had put a tenner on a likely outcome I'd my money would go with GFS & GEM unfortunately.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Further a field @ T144 GEM and GFS are ropey to say the least, GFS has parts of Scotland not getting above 9 or 10C for the entire working week with high pressure anchored out west. UKMO & ICON in the same camp with high pressure slap bang over the UK although still under a notable cold upper pool of air (its actually coldest pool of air at our latitude in the entire northern hemisphere) 

Given trends over the past 2-3 weeks now if I had put a tenner on a likely outcome I'd my money would go with GFS & GEM unfortunately.

That's a brave call... I wouldn't put someone else's money on GFS ever being correct.. And you say GEM... Well this time yesterday it was showing the best output moving forward! 24hrs later and its literally the worst!! Doesn't breed much confidence does it! 

And on a brighter note for my Scottish friends, the Eastern side of Scotland could reach 25c tomorrow and its looks a nice day. Infact the Weekend should finish on a better note, subject to the movement of that front. 

Next week looking good according to UKMO.. BIG ECM coming up.. I feel it will side with the met model... GFS as no friends..

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, MATT said:

That's a brave call... I wouldn't put someone else's money on GFS ever being correct.. And you say GEM... Well this time yesterday it was showing the best output moving forward! 24hrs later and its literally the worst!! Doesn't breed much confidence does it! 

And on a brighter note for my Scottish friends, the Eastern side of Scotland could reach 25c tomorrow and its looks a nice day. Infact the Weekend should finish on a better note, subject to the movement of that front. 

Next week looking good according to UKMO.. BIG ECM coming up.. I feel it will side with the met model... GFS as no friends..

Know what, Matt? I wouldn't put 'someone else's money' on any model being right, just now... Bankers might though; they're good at losing other people's money!

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, sides pretty much with UKMO, not really a surprise to be honest!

Maybe a ridge more than UK high as per UKMO, but welcome definitely.  

Edited July 15, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Zak M]

Alright from the 12z ECM

@168

[mb018538]

Here comes the unsettled weather....right at the start of the school holidays, and just in time for my week in Dorset. I’ve got a feeling the last week of July is going to be worse than what we’ve already had this month.

[Guest]

If the UKMO were to end up like ECM it can stick it. It takes ECM 5days to mix out the cold pool only for it to replaced By the mother of all troughs

[Mark wheeler]

Lovely end to the ECM tonight ....
 

 

 

 

 

For these fellas . 

 

You have to have a sense of humour , I’m due to go to Devon for a weeks holiday from the 26th .

Edited July 15, 2020 by Mark wheeler

[cheshire snow]

3 hours ago, NApplewhite said:

 

Cherry picking these charts isnt really helpful to meterological analysis 

Really

Do you not post PPN charts at 300Hrs not having a go here but best remembering what you post before Picking on others.

 

C.S

 

[Mark wheeler]

Maybe the Navgem will be triumphant on this occasion . It ends well this evening .